After 7/2 and 14/1 winning tips in the Natwest T20 Blast quarter-finals, Simon Crawford previews finals day while we also have a selection of statistics.
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Turn the clock back 12 months and Northamptonshire were the outsiders to win the NatWest T20 Blast, but the underdogs prevailed with wins over Nottinghamshire and Durham seeing them win the trophy for the second time.
A year later and I see no reason why the underdogs can't triumph once more so I am tipping Glamorgan to win finals day for the first time.
Perennial strugglers in the second tier of the Specsavers County Championship, white ball cricket has been a completely different matter and the Welsh side performed superbly to win a hugely competitive T20 Blast South Group where just four points separated top from bottom going into the final round of matches.
Now they are just two wins away from lifting the trophy and I firmly believe the 4/1 generally available on them is too big.
The key to being successful is having a well-balanced side with plenty of match winners and Glamorgan tick all the boxes there.
Opener Jacques Rudolph is hugely experienced and made 378 runs in 13 group games at an average of 47.25, while big-hitting South African David Miller has captained the Kings XI Punjab in the Indian Premier League and has become something of a specialist finisher of an innings.
With the ball, Michael Hogan has claimed 18 wickets at a cost of 19.55, while Marchant de Lange took 16 wickets at 21.62.
But Glamorgan's real jewel in the crown this season has been another South African import, 32-year-old Colin Ingram, who has hit 451 runs at an average of 50.11 with a strike-rate 167.03, including two centuries.
He has also struck 30 sixes, four more than any other batsman this season, and when you factor in the eight wickets he has taken with his leg breaks then it is easy to see how valuable his contributions have been.
Glamorgan take on the Birmingham Bears who will have home advantage at Edgbaston in the first of the semi-finals.
I'm not sure if playing at home means too much on finals day, plus the Bears lost three games on home soil in the group stages.
The Welsh side have won the last four meetings between the two but another crucial factor for me is that playing first means they will have plenty of time to rest and prepare shoud they the final.
Hampshire take on Nottinghamshire in the second semi, two quality sides and whichever one emerges victorious I'm certain it will have taken quite an effort.
To go from that and almost straight into the final could prove too much, as it did for Durham last year against Northants after they had performed so well to knock out highly-fancied Yorkshire in their semi-final clash.
Glamorgan have what it takes to lift the trophy and providing the occasion does not get to them, then 4/1 looks an excellent price.
Looking at the two semi-finals more closely, Birmingham are slight favourites and are odds-on across the board, while Glamorgan are as much as 23/20 (sportingbet).
I think perceived home advantage plays a part in that, plus the Bears put in a stellar performance to put out Surrey in the quarter-finals at the Oval.
In New Zealand spinner Jeetan Patel, they have one of only two bowlers to have taken 20 wickets in the competition, along with Leicestershire's Clint McKay.
However, folllowing that Surrey win I think it could be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the Bears who might not be able to climb those heights again.
If you compare the two sides, then I feel Glamorgan have more matchwinners in the key areas and with this in mind I am backing Ingram to be named man of the match at 15/2 with Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook.
The other semi-final has all the makings of being a high-scoring shoot-out where batsmen will be very much to the fore.
Hampshire's James Vince failed to make the most of the opportunity afforded to him by England last summer where he failed to impress against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
But at 26 he will feel he has time on his side to be given another chance and certainly his T20 campaign will have done him little harm with 486 runs in 14 games, with a strike-rate of 156.77.
Hampshire also have overseas stars Shahid Afridi and George Bailey in thair ranks, but the fact right-hander Vince has eclipsed them shows how well he is playing.
So I'm having a small wager on him to be Hampshire's top batsman at 13/5, which is solid value with him coming in at number three.
Another prolific batsman I am keen to side with is Nottinghamshire's Alex Hales.
Now established as an England white-ball opener, he has amassed 485 runs from 14 matches in the T20 Blast at a strike-rate of 206.38 - comfortably the highest in this season's competition.
He has made one century which came against Yorkshire, plus three-half centuries and he is more than capable of taking apart any attack.
At 11/4 with sportswinner, Hales is good value to be top run scorer for the Outlaws.
With these two in such good form, I also think it's worth a small double on them being their sides' top scorers in the match which pays 11.96/1.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports Cricket
Posted at 1355 BST on 31/08/17
Semi-finals: Opta Statistics
Birmingham Bears v Glamorgan
- Birmingham Bears have reached Finals Day for the fourth time; they won two of their previous three semi-finals in 2003 and 2014, losing in 2015.
- Glamorgan will appear in their second Finals Day; losing to Leicestershire Foxes in their 2004 semi-final.
- Although Glamorgan have never won the domestic T20 tournaments, Birmingham Bears can become only the fourth side to win it on more than one occasion (Leicestershire Foxes, Hampshire and Northamptonshire Steelbacks).
- The last four encounters between these sides have all been won by Glamorgan.
- Birmingham Bears come into this game having won seven of their last nine matches (L2); including the last three in a row.
- Eight of the last 10 matches involving Glamorgan have seen them go on to claim victory (L2); they also come into this fixture having won their last three games.
- Jeetan Patel (Birmingham Bears) is one of only two bowlers to take 20 wickets this season (Clint McKay, 23); claiming his 20 scalps with an economy rate of just 6.9.
- Glamorgan’s Colin Ingram has struck 30 sixes in 2017; four more than any other batsman this season.
- Graham Wagg’s 3/24 helped Glamorgan secure a four-wicket victory over the Bears last time out in July 2013.
- Wagg has scored 138 runs in 2017 and his highest score this term is 50; his average of 138 is the highest of any batsman this season, having been dismissed only once in his seven knocks.
Hampshire v Nottinghamshire
- Hampshire have reached Finals Day for the seventh time in their last eight attempts; they have failed to progress beyond the semi-final stage in their last three appearances at Finals Day however.
- Notts Outlaws will be the only side to appear at Finals Day 2016 and 2017; they lost to eventual champions Northamptonshire Steelbacks in their semi-final last summer.
- Hampshire could win the domestic T20 tournament for the third time; no county has won it more often (Leicestershire Foxes also on three occasions).
- Notts Outlaws have never won the domestic T20 tournament before; ending the 2006 campaign as runners-up and going out at the semi-final stage in 2010 and 2016.
- These two sides have met twice before with Hampshire claiming victory in both quarter-finals (2012 and 2014).
- Hampshire have won their last four matches on the road whilst the Outlaws have won nine of their last 11 overall (L2).
- James Vince’s 93* off 51 balls helped Hampshire record a five-wicket win over Notts Outlaws in their most recent encounter (August 2014).
- Alex Hales (Notts Outlaws) has registered 485 runs with a strike rate of 206.4 in 2017; the fastest rate of any batsman to record 10+ runs this season.
- Hales has also hit more boundaries (95) than anybody else in this campaign; 77 fours and 18 sixes.
- Samit Patel (Notts Outlaws) has reached 50 in both of his innings against Hampshire; 60 off his 33 balls in 2012 and an unbeaten 53 from only 24 balls in 2014.
