Dave Tickner has a man-of-the-match pick for the decisive third England v West Indies Test at Lord's.
So what happens now? After a stunning turnaround of fortunes at Headingley, this Test series is alive and well and, against huge odds, heads to Lord’s with everything to play for.
West Indies are duly a third of the price they were in winning at Headingley, and half what they were when getting annihilated at Edgbaston.
But which West Indies will turn up? The cop-out obvious likelihood here is that it will be a third West Indies, neither as bad as Birmingham’s nor as good as Leeds’.
And that’s before we even get started on England, a side whose consistent inconsistency continues unabated.
And then there’s a weather forecast so bad for a rare September Test that we can’t even confidently remove the draw from the pre-match equation as we generally can with this England side at home (we’re now at one draw in the last 24 England home Tests).
For West Indies, two things happened to change their fortunes. One was predictable, the other less so. The first was the impact made by the return of Shannon Gabriel.
While Gabriel and Kemar Roach taking the new ball is not exactly Garner and Holding or Ambrose and Walsh, it is a legitimate and challenging new-ball pairing. With pressure applied at both ends instead of just one, the task facing England’s top order was suddenly a proper one. Jason Holder also enjoyed Headingley conditions and bowled as well as he ever has in the five-day game.
The unexpected thing was the batting. Kraigg Brathwaite going well was not out of the blue – he’s had solid Test numbers for a few years now and knows what he’s about. Shai Hope, though, was a revelation.
He’d shown glimpses of the qualities that had made him so talked about in the Caribbean, but nobody could have really expected a bloke with a Test batting average in the teens to do something that nobody had ever done at Headingley in first-class cricket, never mind Tests, and score hundreds in both innings to power his side to an astonishing day-five victory.
England had hoped to rest some key players here at Lord’s, but that’s now no longer an option.
And it’s the main men who hold the key here.
There are seven or eight nailed-on starters in this England side, but this summer four have stood out: Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Moeen Ali and James Anderson.
All four are worth considering in any relevant markets, while the all-round efforts of Moeen and Stokes make them particularly appealing in the man-of-the-match betting. Moeen took the honours in the South Africa Test on this ground, but Stokes is the pick here at 9/1.
His overall career record of four MotM nods in 38 Tests makes the price just about value. But that overlooks the consistency Stokes has added to his explosive talent.
With the bat he’s now second only to Root in terms of reliability, passing 50 in five of his 11 Test innings this summer. He’s turned two of those into centuries and is averaging just about 42 and a half this season. That kind of figure should be the stretch target for his overall career mark, but certainly at the age of 26 he looks capable of dragging his career average up significantly from 35.
The consistency he has found with the bat has not translated to the bowling crease, but he remains capable of eye-catching and match-turning interventions. He’s also fond of taking a ridiculous catch or two, which doesn’t hurt.
Stokes also likes this ground. After bagging a pair in his first Test here when ludicrously batting at number eight, he’s gone far better since returning to the top six with scores of 92, 101, 87, 0, 56 and 1.
The Durham all-rounder’s career remains on a steep upward curve, and he’s revelling in the extra responsibility of the vice-captaincy. He’s been man of the match in two of 13 Tests since the start of last winter, and has taken the honours once here in four Tests.
A concern with this bet is that two other members of England’s awesome foursome stand on the brink of history.
Root can set a world-record 13 consecutive Tests with a half-century, while Anderson is just three away from becoming only the sixth man and third quick to reach 500 Test wickets.
The one-off requirements for each man in this game are unremarkable, but the added attention they will bring could sway a market that is by its very nature subjective.
There is a way to turn this to your advantage, though, if you are able.
Sky Bet’s headline Price Boost for the game is an offer of 7/2 for Root to score 50 or more and Anderson to take three or more wickets in the respective first innings. The specific, one-off nature of the market means it won’t be added to the 'Recommended bets' you'll see below, but it really is a fine price if you’re able to take advantage.
Anderson has taken at least three first-innings wickets in every Test this summer since the very first here against South Africa, when he managed ‘only’ 2-44. Root, for his part, has made 50 or more in five of six Tests this summer; this 7/2 shot would’ve therefore have landed in four of the six.
There’s lots to like about getting England’s two most consistent cricketers on board at that kind of price.
Recommended bet: England v West Indies 3rd Test
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Posted at 1850 BST on 05/09/17.
