Free cricket betting tips: England v West Indies ODI series preview

Cricket

Tue September 19, 2017 · 7y ago

England's five-match ODI series with West Indies starts on Tuesday afternoon - our Andy Schooler has 6/1 and 11/2 tips.

England have won 11 of their last 12 one-day internationals against the West Indies.

They have also won five of their last six bilateral ODI series on home soil, the only team to take them down being world champions Australia.

In contrast, West Indies have lost five of their last six ODI series – the odd one out being a home draw with Afghanistan - and have also ended two tri-series in that period with a losing record.

So how do you make a case from them winning a five-match campaign in English conditions over the next fortnight? The first match is played on Tuesday.

The only real answer is to suggest that the recall of three key players can make the difference.

Chris Gayle will play ODI cricket for the first time since the 2015 World Cup, Marlon Samuels is back after almost a year away, while paceman Jerome Taylor is the other man in question. He was also absentee from England’s 3-0 win in the Caribbean in March.

The Windies did win Saturday’s T20 clash between the sides but remember while they are world champions in that format, they are currently ranked ninth in the ICC’s ODI standings – a position which means they are set to be forced into qualifying for the 2019 World Cup.

That competition is beginning to appear on the horizon and the fact that it will take place in England gives this series a bit of added importance.

For England, it means continuing the momentum gained since ripping up their failed ODI template and finally signing up to the modern form of the game after the last World Cup.

The batsmen have been given the freedom to play and having the shackles off has often produced big dividends with 300-plus scores now the norm with several totals past 350.

Their deep batting line-up helps the approach.

However, it's a style of play which inevitably fails now and again, as was shown at the Champions Trophy earlier in the year when the Three Lions fell at the semi-final stage to Pakistan.

That day the batting failed to deliver a big score but the biggest criticism of the team is that the bowling attack is not of the standard of some other major nations.

That view is often glossed over when the batsmen are able to provide a big total. Indeed it doesn't matter on many such occasions.

In a five-match series, of which this is one, I’d be less concerned about that and can't bring myself to suggest West Indies are a good bet, even at odds as big as 7/2.

Class usually rises to the top over a longer format and it is with this in mind that I am heading to the runscorer markets for my best series bets.

As far as England are concerned, it's back to a long-standing favourite punt of the site – namely Eoin Morgan to top-score for his side.

The skipper seems to be consistently over-priced.

Big-hitting opener Alex Hales is a major reason for that but his long-term partner Jason Roy has been dropped and Jonny Bairstow will open in the coming games, as he did in that aforementioned Pakistan match.

While he's more than adept at hitting the ball big, Bairstow isn't very familiar with this role at this level.

Mr Consistent in all forms of the game, Joe Root, will also bat higher than Morgan but he's less than half the price of his captain and the long-term stats don't back that assessment up.

Morgan has top-scored in three of England’s 10 bilateral ODI series since the World Cup, including against South Africa earlier this summer, while he’s also had two other second-placed finishes in the market (against West Indies and India during the winter).

Root's equivalent figures are two and two.

Admittedly Morgan's form isn't great. He’s hardly been piling up the runs for Middlesex or Barbados Tridents in the Caribbean Premier League but indifferent form is something he’s been able to overcome in the past and, as already established, he’s a proven performer at international level.

Neither is this the world's best attack – far from it – with several West Indians inexperienced in the autumnal conditions they will find at Old Trafford, Trent Bridge, Bristol, the Oval and the Rose Bowl. Plenty of their players were openly unhappy about the cold encountered at Chester-le-Street at the weekend.

I just can't have Morgan at 6/1 given his history. Stan James and Betfred do though and he’s worth a bet.

In the equivalent West Indies market, another player with a touch of class looks tempting at 5/1, namely Marlon Samuels.

Much has been made of Gayle's return and he’s at the top of the market alongside fellow opener Evin Lewis. But both will need to deal with a moving ball.

Samuels (pictured below) will get a bit more protection given he's likely to come in at three and while he's been away from the ODI scene for 11 months, go back and look at his most recent performances at this level and you see why he’s a tempting bet.

His ODIs in the last two years have resulted in the following scores: 13-57-46-6-0-125-24-92-10-1-110*-63-2.

That’s two hundreds and three fifties in 13 innings. The average is 45.75 – more than 11 runs above his entire career figure.

Critics will point out Samuels' figures dip in England but I’d also point out his performances in this country during the Windies’ last tour in 2012 were good enough for him to be named one of Wisden’s cricketers of the year so these venues should bring back happy memories and won't hold fears.

As ever, Samuels arrives in bullish mood, relishing another clash with old rival Ben Stokes, and that could inspire him to great things once again.

Last year, before his exile, Samuels claimed two man-of-the-match awards against Australia. In T20 cricket, which he has played more recently, he claimed the same award in the 2016 World T20 final and was man of the series against Afghanistan.

Samuels is his side's Joe Root - a reliable performer towards the top of the order, one happy to play an anchor role but also capable of playing big shots.

At 11/2 (Betfred), I feel he’s worth backing.

Test series star Shai Hope is another contender but while he’s started his ODI career strongly, a strike rate of below 67 suggests he could easily get bogged down in these conditions and I’m prepared to overlook his claims in favour of the experienced Samuels.