England v West Indies second Test betting preview and tips

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4pts Test to finish on day one, two or three at 9/4 – short price for this market, yet stats and first Test suggest still too big

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It’s fair to say my speculative punt on West Indies at Edgbaston didn’t come off. It looked okay for about an hour on the first afternoon, but from the moment England’s current captain Joe Root joined his predecessor Alastair Cook in the middle it was a non-stop horror show for the tourists.

The bowling disintegrated, the fielding was woeful and – worse – uninterested, the captaincy peculiar and the batting… my word, the batting.

The biggest worry for the West Indies is that was their best chance. Everything about the Edgbaston Test was a leveller. Having imploded at 16/1 in Birmingham, they can’t be touched even at a best of 25s in Leeds, where everything is back to normal.

West Indies’ performance was a genuine disgrace, but you only have to go back to last year at Headingley to find one just as bad with the bat from Sri Lanka. They were routed inside three days after barely scraping together 200 runs across both innings.

England themselves were polished off inside three days here by Australia in 2009, while a decade ago West Indies put in a performance here every bit as poor as their current crop managed in Birmingham – beaten by an innings and 283 and only reaching day four when rain washed out all but nine overs on day three.

And in 2000, West Indies didn’t even reach day three here, losing four wickets in one Andy Caddick over en route to a two-day defeat.

That’s ancient history, of course, and barely relevant. But nonetheless, the facts are that two of England’s last six Tests here haven’t reached day four, and West Indies’ last two trips to Leeds – with, on paper, far better sides than their current crop – have ended in quickfire hammerings. There were barely 200 overs all told here in 2007, and not even 160 seven years earlier.

A finish inside three days is 9/4 here. It’s the shortest price I’ve ever seen in that market, but it’s not short enough given what we saw last week. If England see cloud cover on Friday morning, win the toss and bowl first, you honestly couldn't rule out a two-day Test.

The other huge problem for West Indies is that there is little they can really do to bolster their batting. And any improvement they make to their bowling attack – bringing back Shannon Gabriel, or Devendra Bishoo – only boosts the chances of a three-day finish. Neither are known for their economy rate, but both might just shorten the England innings by taking wickets.

If we needed further reason to get involved, even the weather forecast is on board. I wouldn’t be put off by it in any case, but the suggestion right now is for no rain on the first three days but a wet day four. If that remains the case, it will only make England keener to try and wrap things up promptly if the chance presents itself; it could be the difference between deciding to enforce the follow-on or not.

Last week’s win at Edgbaston was the fifth three-day Test in England since the start of 2015. A sixth this week looks more likely than the odds suggest.

Preview posted at 0745 BST on 23/08/2017

Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports Cricket