Dave Tickner expects another early finish in the third England v South Africa Test at The Oval.
Recommended Bets: England v South Africa 3rd Test
1.60pts Test to finish on fourth evening at 9/2
0.88pts Test to finish on fourth afternoon at 9/1
0.52pts Test to finish on fourth morning at 16/1 – both matches in this series and four of last five in England finished on day four. Dutching the three options pays better than 15/8
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So... what now? After a thumping win apiece for England and South Africa, how do we approach the third match of the series?
You could make a case that South Africa now have all the momentum and should be favoured. But having the momentum didn’t do England much good in Nottingham.
You could argue that England will regroup and bounce back from that disappointment and will be determined to put things right. But can they really be favourites after losing by 340 runs?
Maybe it’ll be a draw. Haha, but no seriously, it's at least theoretically possible.
At the simplest value level, you’d surely have to favour South Africa at 2/1 over England at a shade bigger than evens simply because whoever gets on top is likely to stay there, and win handsomely, and the chances of both look pretty even.
Thumping, ultimately one-sided victories have been the story of the series, and of this England team, and of this ground in recent years. Both these teams have talent, but also fragility. Both have folded utterly when placed under pressure.
Are England really significantly likelier to get on top and stay there? I’d find it hard to make that case. With neither side showing the capability or capacity to tough it out when things are going against them, the draw can be ignored unless south London suffers an unforecast deluge.
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You could simply oppose the draw if 1/4 shots are your sort of thing. As far as that price ever can, it represents value; only one of England’s last 20 home Tests has ended in stalemate.
And of those other 19, England have either won by miles or lost by even further. There are five innings victories/defeats on that list, a further five won (or lost) by over 200 runs and others by margins of 10, nine and eight wickets.
This is, in essence, the story of England since the 2013/14 Ashes, a seismic defeat whose aftershocks are still felt today. That tour ripped the heart from Andrew Strauss’ all-conquering side and England are still in recovery.
They have some great players and some very good ones; but they do not have the consistency that marked Strauss’ era.
For me, they are plenty short at the prices quoted, but the case that they are the bet here can easily be made. They have lost seven of those last 20 home Tests, often, as we’ve seen, by vast margins. They have followed each of the previous six with victory.
Those six wins have been by 266 runs; 169 runs; eight wickets; an innings and 88 runs; 330 runs; and 211 runs. Whatever flaws there may be in this England side, bouncebackability is not one of them.
At The Oval, the trend for big victories is even more pronounced. There has been only one draw in the last nine, but a 10-wicket win and four innings victories in that time – including South Africa’s astonishing victory here five years ago when they racked up 637-2 in their only innings.
England, as an aside, will be thrilled to see Hashim Amla recover some form at Trent Bridge ahead of his return to The Oval; he made just 311 not out last time.
The sheer scale of South Africa’s innings in that game took the game into a fifth day, but that has not generally been the case here recently. Four of the last eight Oval Tests have been wrapped up in four days, while another didn’t even get that far. The other two games to reach day five – the draw to conclude the 2013 Ashes series and England’s innings win over India two years earlier – were rain affected. There were only 338 overs bowled in the 2013 game – four days’ full play is 360 – while in 2011 only 26 overs were possible on day one.
Since the start of England’s 2015 summer, half their Tests have finished on the fourth day. Another four didn’t even get that far, with only four seeing play on the final day.
Recently, the move towards shorter Tests has been starker still. The last three, including both games in this series, have finished on day four, with four of the last five, six of the last 10 and eight of the last 14 concluding on day four. Only two of the last 14 have gone to the final day.
Dutching the three day-four prices in the “Test match end” market pays north of 15/8 and looks perfectly fair based on everything we know about these teams and this ground.
In similar vein, the general 6/1 available for no individual century to be scored in the match looks a touch generous. Clearly when matches are routinely finishing on the fourth day, batsmen have found things tough going. There has only been one century in the series so far – from Joe Root on the opening day, and it’s fair to say he rode his luck early on.
Root’s 190 is over a hundred more than anyone else has managed in an individual innings thus far and, while The Oval is a decent place to bat, bowlers have been well on top thus far.
Elsewhere, one price worth taking if you’re able is the 25/1 Paddy Power Betfair have left up for Vernon Philander in their man of the match markets. He’s no bigger than 12s elsewhere, but Paddy Power have left their prices unchanged from the last Test.
With Philander moving up the order to number seven as well as taking the new ball, he took out this market in Nottingham, prompting those cuts to his price across the board with that one exception.
If you're able to get on before they spot it, do so. The swingeing cuts to 12/1 are excessive, albeit understandable in light of his Trent Bridge heroics, but 16/1 probably represents a fair price; 25/1 is far too big.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports Cricket (404)
Posted at 1805 BST on 25/07/17.
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