After a profitable Champions Trophy, Dave Tickner picks out his best bets for the England v South Africa first Test and series.
Recommended bets: England v South Africa
1pt Quinton de Kock top South Africa first Test batsman at 6/1 – see above
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
England return to Test cricket after a seven-month gap looking to put a difficult winter in Asia behind them back on home soil under new captain Joe Root.
The Yorkshireman’s elevation to the top role has long appeared inevitable, and a winter in which England managed only a draw in Bangladesh before a 4-0 defeat in India left Alastair Cook’s position looking untenable.
He took the correct decision to walk away from the captaincy – a role he had never truly mastered or apparently enjoyed – and concentrate on what he does best: scoring stacks and stacks of runs at the top of the order. He’s still only 32, and sits within 5,000 runs of Sachin Tendulkar’s all-time Test runs record of 15,921; it’s not out of reach for a man who adores run-scoring and no longer has the burden of leadership.
But will it be a successful start to what could be a glorious Joe Root Era? Hard to say. South Africa, on the face of it, represent a tough initial challenge but it’s clear that it’s not quite the challenge it might have been.
There is no AB de Villiers and no Dale Steyn. Hashim Amla remains a delight to watch but his recent Test numbers at the age of 34 suggest either terminal decline or an imminent triple-century. One half-century – and that only 50 on the nose – and one century in his last 17 innings is a concern for Amla and a South Africa top order that looks rather reliant on him.
Captain Faf du Plessis’ absence for the first Test is a huge blow. He is the glue in their middle order and Dean Elgar stepping into his shoes robs the Proteas of one potential advantage against rookie international skipper Root. With Elgar the team’s senior opener there is also suddenly much on his plate.
With questions also over England’s batting line-up - Gary Ballance back at three, Keaton Jennings playing his first home Test – and the return of a genuine tail with Stuart Broad or Toby Roland-Jones at number eight, the only concrete stance to take ahead of the first Test at Lord’s, where the weather forecast is good, appears to be opposing the draw.
Once a byword for five-day ‘chief-executive pitches’, Lord’s has produced results consistently in recent years with only two draws in the last 10 at HQ. It hasn’t been a particularly happy ground for England in that time, though, with the eight positive results split between victories and defeats.
At full power, South Africa would undoubtedly rate a bet at 5/2, but in truth I was already wavering ahead of confirmation that du Plessis won’t make it. If Vernon Philander also joins him on the sidelines, then I’d go full circle and rate England a bet at anything around evens.
Across a four-Test series, though, I reckon there are enough areas of concern about England to make 7/2 quotes about a South African series victory wide of the mark.
England have been well beaten in their last two home series against the Proteas, and while much may have changed since 2012, their home form remains patchy.
They were held 2-2 by Pakistan last summer and 1-1 by New Zealand the summer before. South Africa, meanwhile, won 2-0 in New Zealand and 2-1 in Australia last winter.
They may be a team in flux, but South Africa have an estimable away record that stretches back a long, long way. They have only lost one away series in the last decade; outside the sub-continent they haven’t lost an away series since going down 2-0 to the all-powerful Australians in 2005/06.
With Elgar dealing with captaincy, Heino Kuhn set to make his debut alongside him, Amla out of form, du Plessis absent, and neither JP Duminy nor Temba Bavuma reliable at this level, the South African to get with in the first Test and across the series is Quinton de Kock. He’s far too big at 7/1 to be their top series batsman – the 9/2 elsewhere looks far closer to the mark – and well worth support in the opener at Lord’s as well.
No South African has scored more runs in their last 10 Tests, and, for a player renowned for extravagant strokeplay, de Kock has become a model of consistency with 10 50-plus scores (including three centuries and a pair of 90s) in his last 20 innings.
With a number of bowlers entering the series under an injury cloud and the whole four-match series being knocked off in little more than a month, I’m reluctant to get involved with anyone in the series top bowler market.
The one I’d mention is South Africa’s left-armer Keshav Maharaj, who, as a spinner, is less likely to succumb to injury in the quick-fire format, and picked up 15 wickets in two Tests in New Zealand where conditions are not dissimilar to England.
For the first Test, I like Toby Roland-Jones' chances of an eye-catching debut. As a Middlesex man he won’t face the usual problems associated with adapting to the idiosyncrasies of Lord’s and is an ideal bowler for a ground where bounce can be a key weapon in the absence of prodigious lateral movement.
No seamer has more wickets in the top flight of the County Championship since the start of last summer than Roland-Jones’ 76 and his nagging accuracy might be just the thing to trouble a South African line-up that is now a touch short on top-level experience in English conditions.
Backing him in just this (home) Test rather than across the series also provides the security of stakes returned should England spring a surprise and go with Liam Dawson to bolster the batting as a second spinner.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports 2
Posted at 0920 BST on 04/07/17.
More on England v South Africa
Sir Ian Botham's best bets
Eng v SA Test series guide
