England v South Africa betting tips: Fourth Test preview

Recommended bets: England v South Africa 4th Test

1pt Vernon Philander man of the match at 25/1 – all-rounders have won this in all three Tests thus far; big price if Big Vern is over the illness that affected him last week

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Admittedly this is not the best way to start a betting preview, but I’ve stopped pretending to know what’s going to happen in England home Tests now.

Actually, that’s not quite true. I’ll still tell you that one of the teams will win by miles, I just have no confidence in telling you which one. A traditional weather-based Manchester draw plunge means you can get a frankly massive 4/11 on a positive result at Old Trafford this week – we now stand at one draw in the last 21 England home Tests.

If we look at the form, recent history tells us we should be backing South Africa to square the series. Because England at home are the best side in the world just after a defeat, and one of the worst just after a win.

In home Tests their last seven defeats have all been followed by victories; their last six victories have been followed by two wins, three defeats and a draw. It should by now go without saying that none of those victories or defeats was close; you have to go back to the Lord’s Test in early 2015 to find the last England home Test where the result was in any kind of doubt relatively late on, and even then England eventually won by 124 runs with 10 overs to spare.

One thing that has been notable this series, beside the fact that whichever side is on top after the first day and a half going on to win at a canter, has been the significance of the all-rounders.

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In the two games England have won, Ben Stokes and Moeen Ali have been to the fore. When South Africa hit back at Trent Bridge, Vernon Philander and Chris Morris starred for the Proteas.

I’d go so far as to say Philander has defined this series in a way not all that dissimilar to Glenn McGrath in that Ashes series you may remember 12 years ago.

Back in 2005, McGrath – who held an almost mystical hold over England batsmen – missed both Australia’s defeats. They won one and drew two of the three matches he managed to play.

Philander, unlike McGrath, has made it on the park for all three games, but only at Trent Bridge was he at something approaching full power.

At Lord’s, Philander was clearly carrying an injury. At The Oval, he was battling a stomach upset that at one stage left him in hospital on a drip and frequently meant he was unable to bowl even when on the field due to making up the time he’d missed.

“I’m obviously quite an important part of the line-up,” Philander said after that defeat at The Oval. “Bowling at 70% or 80% I could feel that my intensity was missed. If you can’t go at 100% and the conditions are suited for you as well, it was really frustrating that I couldn’t be out there and bowl longer spells.

“It was a tough week personally. Being on the loo for quite a bit and having to go out to bowl was draining. I couldn’t really keep anything down but I’m feeling a lot better now.”

The last six words are the key there. I’m willing to take him at his word and, if he is indeed fully recovered, then I’m backing him and South Africa to have a far better week.

Prices around 5/2 for a South Africa win are perfectly fair given what we’ve seen in this series. But what we’ve seen also suggests they’re far more likely to prevail if Big Vern has a big game.

A damp, green Manchester pitch should suit his accurate seam bowling to a tee.

With batsmen on both sides struggling to make big contributions – Dean Elgar’s gritty final-day rearguard at The Oval was just the third century of the series and first by a South African – the opportunity has been there for the bowlers and all-rounders to take centre stage.

The all-rounders have certainly stepped up. Man of the match has been won by Moeen Ali, Philander himself and Ben Stokes in the series so far.

In a series where wickets are on offer and even a half-century can be a significant score, there is every chance one of the all-rounders takes out this market again.

Philander is, currently, rated alongside Chris Morris at the back of the queue among the main four contenders. It’s one thing for him to be a bigger price than Stokes or Moeen, both playing the best cricket of their lives and lining up for the favourites, but should Philander really be the same price as Morris?

If fully fit and firing, Philander has Morris covered with both bat and ball in Test cricket. At 25/1, it’s worth an investment that he is, as he says he is, over the illness that made his, and South Africa’s, Oval experience so unpleasant.

Posted at 1910 BST on 02/08/17.

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