Cricket expert Richard Mann looks ahead to England's Test series with Pakistan which gets underway at Lord's on Thursday.
Recommended bets: England v Pakistan Test series
3pts James Anderson Top England Series Wicket Taker at 15/8
3pts Asad Shafiq Top Pakistan Series Runscorer at 6/1
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Joe Root’s England side will be banking on home comforts to spark a revival in their fortunes following a disastrous winter which saw them crash to a 4-0 Ashes defeat and another series loss to New Zealand in March.
Following a promising, but ultimately unfulfilling, start to his Test career, James Vince has been axed with Jos Buttler pencilled in to return at number seven and off-spinner Dom Bess in line for a potential debut with Moeen Ali now seemingly out of favour following his winter struggles.
Ben Stokes meanwhile is back in the all-rounder slot having missed the Ashes following his involvement in an altercation outside of a Bristol nightclub in September.
Root will be thrilled to have his talisman back, but a spring spent in the IPL is hardly the ideal preparation for him and Buttler and the demands of Test cricket have the potential to provide a rude awakening for both.
Nevertheless, England remain a formidable unit on home soil, especially now Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow are set to move up the order to numbers three and five respectively, and are 2/5 to win the series.
Root is a terrific player – one of the best in the world – but his frustrating inability to convert his glut of half-centuries into more regular match-defining innings has left him doing plenty of soul searching since the Ashes.
Nevertheless, his overall record remains mightily impressive with 5843 Test match runs at an average of 52.63 a clear illustration of his undoubted class.
He has now finally given in to Trevor Bayliss’ urgings and agreed to return to the troublesome number three spot and it is worth remembering that his highest test score, 254 at Old Trafford in 2016, came at first drop against Pakistan.
This is a huge summer for Root, both as a batsman and as captain, and he will be hoping the ever-dependable James Anderson can continue to defy Father Time and keep proving to be the outstanding attack leader that he has been for so many years.
There is no one better than Anderson in these conditions, with his trusty Dukes ball in hand, and the Lancashire paceman confirmed he remains as good as ever with a sterling winter’s work Down Under.
Anderson was one of the few shining lights in England’s disappointing tour of Australia and New Zealand and his 17 Ashes wickets came at an average of 27.82, the only member of the attack to produce an average below 30.
Anderson has a brilliant record against Pakistan having taken 54 wickets at 18.50 against that opposition in 13 Test matches and once again, he will be Root’s go-to man.
He has no secrets from anyone nowadays but 15/8 about him finishing the series as England’s leading wicket taker looks fair enough, especially given his liking for Lord’s and the possibility of swinging conditions in the second Test at Headingley.
Anderson has taken 90 Test wickets at an average of 25.82 at Lord's since debuting against Zimbabwe there back in 2003 - including a quintet of five-wicket hauls - further demonstrating his effectiveness at the home of cricket.
Anderson’s Headingley record had been less impressive in the early part of his career but he has really found the key to bowling in Leeds more recently, a switch in ends and three five-fers seeing him to much better effect, and if the clouds roll in again, he will be licking the lips at the prospect of bowling to Pakistan’s inexperienced batting line-up.
WICKET WATCH A classic @jimmy9 wicket. Super delivery to dismiss Tom Moores for 1. Notts 106-7 #NOTvLAN pic.twitter.com/v96XRaKKR0
— Lancashire CCC (@LancsCCC) May 11, 2018
England could well hand a debut to another young spinner on Thursday, 20-year-old Bess the latest name after Mason Crane and Jack Leach to get the nod over the out-of-favour Ali.
An injury to Leach, a teammate of Bess at Somerset, has halted the promising start to his international career but Bess, for all he lacks experience, is highly regarded and thought to have a sound enough temperament to prosper at this level.
England might have initially been tempted to field an all-seam attack, with Bess watching on for now, but some glorious recent weather may well mean a spin option is a necessity at Lord’s and that will leave Chris Woakes’ all-round skills competing with the extra pace of Mark Wood for the final spot.
The last time these two sides met on these shores, Pakistan went on to reach world number one in the Test rankings following a 2-2 drawn series but the tourists return with a vastly different side this time around.
Captain Misbah-ul-Haq and the brilliant Younis Khan have since retired and though coach Mickey Arthur is striving to build a future without those experienced performers, more recent results have suggested there is still much work to be done.
Prior to beating Ireland in a one-off Test match earlier this month, Pakistan were beaten heavily by Sri Lanka in Dubai and victory in the West Indies prior to that only came on the back of crushing defeats to New Zealand and Australia.
Wahab Riaz has been the latest casualty as Arthur looks to get tough with the Test team and the side that got the better of a spirited Ireland recently had a fresh and energetic look to it with rookie opener Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam and Mohammad Abbas all impressing.
Some experienced, top-class performers do remain, with Mohammad Amir set to lead the attack and Asad Shafiq slotting into Younis’ shoes at number four.
Shafiq looks outstanding value in the top Pakistan series batsman at 6/1.
The diminutive right-hander is a fabulous player who is typically strong off his legs but boasts a fine cut shot and is equally happy taking on the short ball with the pull or hook.
Shafiq impressed in the drawn series back in 2016, making 274 runs at an average of 39.14, and that included a brilliant hundred in the final Test at the Oval.
He was forced to wait for his turn at number six in that series but now finds himself perfectly placed at number four – protected from James Anderson and the new ball while unlikely to be left stranded with the tail – and his productive past experiences in England should stand him in good stead.
At 6/1, he simply must be backed, for all teammate Azhar Ali is an excellent technician who can also call upon on previous experience in England and Azam appears an organised batsman with the game to succeed against an attack as well-skilled as England’s.
Both should cause England plenty of problems, but Shafiq looks to have plenty in his favour and at the prices, looks the one to be on.
