As the build up to the international cricket summer continues, Richard Mann highlights three betting pointers worth keeping in mind when England take on visiting New Zealand.
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Is Pope really ready to Lord it up?
Ollie Pope is the real deal, right? The future of English cricket. The next Joe Root.
On England’s radar from being knee-high to a grasshopper, Pope was fast-tracked into Test cricket in 2018 as a 20-year-old with only 15 first-class games under his belt but a reputation that had English cricket buzzing with excitement.
Unsurprisingly, the diminutive right-hander found India’s excellent pace attack a baptism of fire, but having returned to Surrey and continued to put big runs on the board, he was soon back in England colours and registered his maiden Test century in an apparently career-defining 2020.
However, a recurrence of an old shoulder injury stopped him in his tracks and when he reappeared on England’s tour of India in February, he found a collection of turning pitches and an expert home attack too hot to handle. For the first time in his career, Pope looked like he might not belong. By the end of the series his approach had become frenetic, his mind scrambled.
A return to home shores this spring was welcome, then, and 555 runs from seven County Championship matches so far this season might suggest India was nothing more than a dip in form that will pale into insignificance at the end of what will surely prove to be a long and distinguished international career.
Still, when Pope steps onto the field at Lord’s next week he will be playing in his 18th Test match. A newcomer no more. A solitary hundred and an average of 31.92 aren’t the sort of numbers that will take England to number one the world, and certainly not the numbers that will see Pope become the great player many have predicted.
Pope has gone beyond potential now, and ahead of an Ashes series Down Under, the two upcoming series this summer represent some of the most significant moments of his career to date. Up against two outstanding pace attacks, and in conditions that might be hard work for batsmen, the weeks ahead are sure to be challenging.
I’m a Pope fan. A big one. Regular readers of these pages will know that only too well, and under normal circumstances – and with no Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler to worry about – I’d want him in my series staking plan for top England series batsman.
His form for Surrey certainly points to him being a play at anything north of 5/1, but the frenetic nature of Pope’s approach in India concerns me and even when he compiled a typically stylish 131 against Hampshire in April, he could be seen tinkering with his set-up as frequently as every few overs. It didn’t stop him overcoming an attack that featured Kyle Abbot and Mohammad Abbas, but he has clearly been searching for something.
His stance has had a different look to it since India: he is more upright at the crease and appears determined to get across to off stump and be more open. Of course, change isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it becomes a necessity at the highest level as one strives to evolve and improve in the face of new modes of attack from opposition bowlers armed with pages of statistics and hours of video footage.
He’ll get there, I’m sure of it. England seem sure of it, too. But while Pope tinkers with his game and searches for perfection, bettors must weigh up just how much confidence they can have in a young player rich on talent, but needing to overcome a few demons while staring down some terrific opposition bowlers.
Beware top bowler markets for once
For the most part, top bowler markets are a worthwhile angle for punters to pursue. I think this is even more relevant in T20 cricket when pacers tend to do the baulk of their bowling at the death, and thus have a greater chance of picking up cheap wickets.
Top series bowler markets – more specifically in Test cricket – are always worth serious consideration and Dom Bess and Jack Leach were good winners for these pages in the winter.
However, this forthcoming series might not offer the same opportunities with England’s expected rest and rotation policy making it hard to bet with confidence, while Trent Boult’s unavailability for the first Test at least will disappoint his supporters.
Looking at England first, the obvious starting point is James Anderson who proved once again in the winter that he remains the best bowler in this country, and not far off the best in the world, with high-class performances in Sri Lanka and India. Across four Tests in unhelpful subcontinent conditions, Anderson claimed 14 wickets at an average of 12.35 and he will resume this summer with his reputation as glowing as ever, and his Ashes aspirations still strong despite his 39th birthday fast approaching.
With Lord’s and Edgbaston hosting the two Tests in this series – venues where Anderson has taken 103 and 44 Test wickets respectively – he would surely be worth a bet in conditions that are expected to suit and with no Jofra Archer for competition.
The issue is, England have made clear their desire to ensure Anderson and Broad aren’t overburdened in the latter stages of their careers, instead primed for the biggest occasions, and with India up next, it’s hard to envisage either playing both matches.
That ought to bring others into the mix, but Mark Wood and Ollie Stone appear to be in the same boat while Ollie Robinson’s Test debut might have to wait until Birmingham. With so much chopping and changing, a watching brief is all that can be advised at this stage.
Having finished as New Zealand’s leading wicket-taker in seven of the last 15 series, and with Boult unlikely to figure much, if at all, Neil Wagner at least offers a solid proposition for top Kiwi bowler honours.
A wholehearted left-arm seamer whose bouncer is awkward to face and deceptively quick, Wagner has carved out a wonderful career by breaking crucial partnerships and blowing away lower orders lacking the gumption to withstand his short stuff.
Part of why Wagner has become such a valuable asset for captain Kane Williamson is that when the aforementioned Boult and Tim Southee have exhausted the traditional methods of swing, seam and guile, Wagner invariably makes things happen as pitches flatten out and the ball loses its verve.
Until his body cries enough, Wagner should continue to do his thing, but in England, with a Dukes ball that generally keeps the seam and swing bowlers in the game for longer, I’m not convinced the likes of Southee and Matt Henry will be kept too quiet in those periods.
Those types of bowlers might well smell blood throughout and with Henry’s record in county cricket for Kent suggesting he will be a more than adequate replacement for Boult, I’m not sure Wagner will be able to exclusively farm lower-order wickets as he has become so used to doing.
For once, the top series bowler markets make little appeal and a watch and learn mission is the best I can advise. Should Robinson get the nod at Edgbaston, potentially in place of the rested Anderson, then might be the time to get involved.
Kane might not be the cash king
By the time most firms have priced up, Kane Williamson won’t be much bigger than 6/4 to finish the series at New Zealand’s leading runscorer. He might only be around the 2/1 mark for those wanting to play innings by innings.
With 24 hundreds in 73 Tests and an average of 54.31, it is easy to see why and a game built around exceptional defence, wonderful, soft hands and the ability to play the ball late should be tailor-made for these conditions. Of all the batsmen in the world, Williamson ought to be best equipped to cope with Anderson and Broad under gloomy English skies.
Or so you might think. In fact, while Williamson has a sound overall record against England and averages 43.70 from 11 matches, that average is only 30.87 in four Tests on these shores. Admittedly, it’s only a small sample size and with such a fabulous technique, he ought to improve on those numbers in the next few weeks.
The problem is, there shouldn’t be many negatives when taking short prices in these markets and the fact Williamson hasn’t made a score over 50 in an away Test since 2018, with his last half-century in an away Test outside of Asia coming in 2016, only strengthens the case for treating him with caution.
Add to that the fact that Williamson’s preparation for this series has involved recovering from injury at the IPL, then saw him play less than a handful of T20s before that competition was postponed, before finding himself back in quarantine as he made his way to England. It’s been a rough road for many of those to have been in India recently and there is the very real possibility that Williamson could be caught cold in the first Test at least.
That’s not to say he won’t overcome those obstacles. The Kiwi captain is an outstanding technician with a flawless temperament to boot, but he will have to do things the hard way and for those wanting to take short prices about him, a note of caution has to be advised.
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