Cricket writer Richard Mann previews the final day of the first Test between Pakistan and England in Multan.
As sure as night follows day, a Pakistan batting collapse in the third innings of a Test match has now become painfully predictable.
The hosts find themselves staring down the face of a heavy defeat, a remarkable shift in fortunes having won the toss on day one and posted 556 in their first innings.
To lose from a such a position of dominance will hurt badly.
Pakistan's frailties are there for all to see. The bowling is moderate, and highlighted even more on flat pitches like the one we have seen in Multan this week, and the batting is brittle when put under any sort of pressure.
Having spent 150 overs in the dirt, punch drunk from Harry Brook's triple hundred and Joe Root's double, it's little wonder the home batsmen were leg weary and portrayed frazzled brains when England's bowlers came hard at them for just over a session.
And as is so often the case in the subcontinent, that surface finally began to crack and offered the bowlers something to work with late on the fourth day.
In this case it was variable bounce, though in truth, the batting was just poor and suggested a soft underbelly to this Pakistan side.
For England's part, that ruthless streak they have been searching for was found and then some this week, and the omens for tougher tests ahead are good, with Brook's appetite for big runs so important to the team going forward.
As for Root, few could argue that he is now the best Test batsman on the planet. Where he ends up by the time his career is finished is quite the prospect.
More immediately, expect England to finish the job sometime between the third and second session on Friday, though Salman Ali Agha and Aamer Jamal did offer some resistance late on Thursday as Pakistan closed on 152-6, still 115 runs behind.
I don't foresee a scenario in which England bat again, and you can bet under 224.5 innings runs at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
More interestingly, Pakistan failing to reach 200 is available with the same firm at 3/1. If there's a bet to be struck from here, that might be it, with the feeling that one early breakthrough could see the deck of cards fall quickly.
Still, captain Ollie Pope is sure to attack early with his field placings, so plenty of open gaps will ensure batsmen get value for their shots.
In truth, there's not enough in this to tempt me to get involved again, with the quick turnaround between Tests meaning we'll be back to business on Tuesday.
Zak Crawley might have fluffed his lines when nearing a hundred, just as Saud Shakeel did a day earlier, but Harry Brook's magnificent century on three day landed 6/1 and 6/4 winners for readers of the pre-match preview as England batted themselves into a position of strength.
England were trading around 9/2 at the start of the day, but they will resume on Thursday morning now only 64 runs behind, with Brook unbeaten on 141 and Joe Root 176.
The pitch remains flat and with this Pakistan attack looking very moderate – Naseem Shah apart – England are now 13/8 with Sky Bet to complete a remarkable comeback victory.
The draw is still favoured at 8/15, but while it's true the pitch remains flat and placid, this has generally been the case in the subcontinent for many years, before things tend to happen late on day four and into day five.
And that's where England hold a big advantage. With two set batsmen and plenty of batting to come, there is no reason why they can't bat for two more sessions, maybe a bit more, and build a lead of around 200.
That would put Pakistan under big pressure with four sessions of cricket remaining, and it could be a case of déjà vu for the home team.
Pakistan made 448-6 declared in the first innings against Bangladesh at Rawalpindi only recently, with that Test seemingly headed for a draw before Pakistan imploded in the third innings and were rolled out for only 146.
They would go on to lose that Test by ten wickets and in Jack Leach and Shoaib Bashir, England have a little bit of variety in their spin attack, if not some needed x-factor.
Much will depend on how this pitch holds up, but with trust in Pakistan low and England's creativity and willingness to push the boundaries not in doubt, there should be plenty of life left in this game.
The market probably has England about right now, but it would be a brave man who takes short odds about the draw from here.
We could be in for a thrilling finish yet.
Posted at 1440 BST on 09/10/24
Day two of the first Test still belonged to Pakistan, but Zak Crawley's fluent riposte kept England in the game despite the injury suffered by fellow opened Ben Duckett earlier in the day.
With Ollie Pope falling victim to a stunning catch as Duckett's stand-in, things could've unravelled for the tourists but Crawley was excellent for his unbeaten 64, supported by a more pragmatic Joe Root at the other end.
Crawley was my pre-match headline bet and 7/1 that he scores a century obviously looks a good bit of business now. Hopefully he doesn't fall the way of Saud Shakeel, who landed a 7/4 winner by passing 50, but fell 18 runs short of his own century having also been advised in that market at 6/1.
The argument that bat would win over ball is underlined now by 652 runs having been scored for the loss of 11 wickets and while England do still have work to do, their runs line is set at 479.5 for a reason. It could be a long day in the field for Pakistan and we can expect the draw and England both to shorten as they drift in the match market.
Abrar Ahmed was expensive for his four overs on Tuesday evening but our 5/2 top bowler pick should come into the game and as of now, there's no inclination to strike another bet.
I sense this Test match has a twist in it somewhere but am happy settling in for what should be an engrossing third day before we reassess – hopefully buoyed by at least one nice winner.
Day two betting update
2pts Abrar Ahmed top Pakistan first innings bowler at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
England endured a challenging opening day of this three-match Test series, with Pakistan making use of excellent batting conditions in Multan to close on 328-4.
There were centuries for Shan Masood and Abdullah Shafique as England’s bowling attack, missing James Anderson and Ollie Robinson from their successful XI on this ground two years ago, struggled for bite or any semblance of run-rate control.
Back in the side having been left out last summer, Jack Leach was comfortably the pick of England’s attack and should Pakistan be required to bat again, the Somerset man will likely be top of my list for top England second innings bowler.
More immediately, Pakistan are well placed to make a huge first innings score, despite losing Babar Azam just before the close of play. Saud Shakeel – tipped at 6/1 in my first Test preview to make a first innings century – will resume unbeaten on 35.
Playing the field with a sweep and reverse-sweep masterclass ✨#PAKvENG | #TestAtHome pic.twitter.com/J7IDcl9JGV
— Pakistan Cricket (@TheRealPCB) October 7, 2024
Fingers crossed with him, and I’m happy to have Zak Crawley and Harry Brook in the staking plan, too, given how good conditions look for batting.
Sky Bet are only 8/11 that Pakistan reach 500. No arguments there, but I’m not interested in taking odds-on about that.
For all the pitch does look excellent for batting, both Leach and Shoaib Bashir did occasionally get some sharp spin from the surface. I don’t expect the pitch to suddenly turn into a raging turner on days two and three, but I wouldn’t be keen on taking 13/8 about the draw, either.
Much can change with so much cricket still to be played, but it’s clear that spin will be key here with so little sideways movement on offer for the seamers.
That means all eyes will be on Pakistan leg spinner ABRAR AHMED when England come in to bat.
Abrar bagged 17 wickets against England when they toured Pakistan in 2022, including 11 on this ground on what was his Test debut. Seven of those wickets came in the first innings.
England’s top six are capable of playing spin well, but they are sure to be aggressive, just as Pakistan were against Bashir on day one, and with that will provide opportunities for the hosts.
Coral and Ladbrokes offer 5/2 about Abrar in the top Pakistan first innings bowler market and given he will get through plenty of overs and go for runs, I can only advise this bet with a bookmaker that settles a tie with dead-heat rules.
Abrar will surely take wickets, for all they might cost him plenty against England’s Bazball boys.
Posted at 1430 BST on 07/10/24
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