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Cricket in-play betting tips: England v Sri Lanka second Test latest odds and advice
Richard Mann previews day four of the second Test between England and Sri Lanka at Lord's.
Day four betting update
1pt Sri Lanka to score 275+ runs at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Sri Lanka to score 300+ runs at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Thanks to their record-breaking former captain, the irrepressible Joe Root, England are on course to wrap up another series win and may do so on day four of the second Test with Sri Lanka, who trail by 430 runs and are two down already.
Still, I have to stick to my view, which has been supported by events of the last three days, that this Lord's pitch is a good one which won't deteriorate and may in fact become better for batting as the Test wears on.
Root aside, England gave away wickets very cheaply at times during their second innings and the same was true of the Sri Lanka middle-order in their first. Dinesh Chandimal fell for a very simple trap, which was especially frustrating for us, but Kamindu Mendis showed what could be done and opener Dimuth Karunaratne batted well on Saturday evening.
With Mendis, Chandimal, Dhananjaya de Silva and Angelo Mathews all to come and a ball which is already 20 overs old, Sri Lanka can outperform market expectations and, from 53-2, I'll be disappointed if they can't get well past 250.
Sky Bet offer 9/4 about 275-plus and 7/2 that they reach 300, so I'll be splitting stakes and trusting my judgement: that this Lord's pitch is a good one for middle-order batsmen, and that Sri Lanka have within their middle-order two or three who are well capable of holding firm for a while yet.
Those a little more circumspect should consider Paddy Power, BoyleSport and William Hill's 5/6 that they reach 230.
Day three betting update
3pts England to score over 279.5 second innings runs at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
After making a good fist of things in Manchester, and throwing some early punches on day one at Lord's, Sri Lanka looked as if they had finally waved the white flag with a limp batting display on the second day in St John's Wood.
Despite another fine hand from Kamimdu Mendis, the 25-year-old spanking 74 from number seven to back up his Old Trafford hundred, the tourists were rolled out for only 196 in reply to England's 427, that after Sri Lanka had opted to bowl first.
As I've been arguing all week, there are runs to made on this pitch if that new ball can be negotiated, Gus Atkinson's maiden Test century and highest First Class score only serving to highlight that point.
Sri Lanka's middle order really should have done better. England's four-man seam attack deserve plenty of credit for their efforts, but after Mendis, Dinesh Chandimal with 23 from number five was the next highest scorer. There were no demons in the surface, just a series of loose shots.
A couple of days ago, there was the possibility that the good weather to have so far blessed this second Test might be replaced by something more unsettled, but the latest update from Michael Fish suggests we are now set fair for the weekend.
That's a blessing for punters. Another potential spanner in the works has been taken out of the equation, and with Sri Lanka's attack entitled to already be feeling weary at the prospect of what is to come, England really ought to make hay in their second innings.
Having tipped Root to make a century in the third Test against West Indies and again in Manchester last week, I was of course thrilled to see him reach three figures on Thursday, having omitted him from this week's staking plan.
Root shelling a catch off the bowling of Olly Stone late in Sri Lanka's first innings to deny our man a full win in the top England bowler market was another reason to curse England's greatest ever batsman. For the full house, Root is an avid Sheffield United fan.
Still, Root now averages 65.68 against Sri Lanka, with five hundreds and two fifties from only 12 matches. The Yorkshireman has a very fine second innings record, too, and is 7/1 with Sky Bet to bring up Test century number 34.
Harry Brook is the same price, and after a summer of near misses, and one brilliant ton at Trent Bridge, I wouldn't be surprised to see him put a tiring Sri Lanka attack to the sword.
I really do think England can make as many as they want before a declaration, and with three full days remaining, they can continue the trend of big second innings runs at Lord's in recent years.
In last summer's Ashes Test here, England's second innings total bettered their first – 325 to 327 – and a few months earlier, Ireland posted 362 in their second innings having made only 172 first time around.
I expect this pitch to remain true, and will be very disappointed if England don't beat the par line set at 279.5 with Sky Bet from only one down overnight.
Posted at 2010 BST on 30/08/24
Day one was Test cricket at Lord's in a nutshell: hard work for batting for a good session and a half of the first day, even more so against the new ball, before things got easier as the ball softened up, the pitch flattened out in the late summer sun, and runs then flowed freely in the final session.
We've seen it on this ground so many times before, and though Sri Lanka didn't help themselves with some poor, ragged cricket, and perhaps a lack of stamina from their three-man pace attack, Lord's really can be an unforgiving place.
That Gus Atkinson finished the day unbeaten on 74, already honing in on his highest First Class score, tells us that there are few demons in this pitch, for all it appears very slow and thus, quite hard work.
If you're prepared to graft, as Joe Root was for most of his wonderful 143, there are runs to be made here, and days two and three are often the best days to bat on this ground. A good weather forecast for Friday should also help in that regard.
As such, Sri Lanka ought to make a good fist of things when it comes their turn to bat. The slower nature of this surface will be welcome after Mark Wood ruffled a few feathers at Old Trafford, and the tourists will be relieved injury has ruled him out for the remainder of the series.
That said, the new ball is still sure to pose a significant challenge, and with England already sitting pretty on 358-7, Sri Lanka could soon find themselves a long way behind in the match.
I can certainly see England making earlier inroads again, but as was the case in Manchester, that Sri Lankan middle order is not to be underestimated. If the sun comes out again, and Sri Lanka can limit their casualties against the new ball, I think they can post a good total.
I stayed loyal to Dinesh Chandimal in my pre-match preview, but the likes of Angel Mathews, Dhananjaya de Silva and Kamindu Mendis will also fancy having a bat on this pitch.
As such, my strategy might be to play around with the individual milestones betting for those middle-order players in-play, or look to simply back overs on innings runs should Sri Lanka lose early wickets and the market overreact.
Posted at 2120 BST on 29/08/24
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