Cricket betting tips: West Indies v England Test series preview

Cricket tips: West Indies v England Test series

2pts Jack Leach top England series bowler at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

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England cricket fans will get a first look at the Test team’s 're-set' on Tuesday afternoon, as England start a three-match series against the West Indies in Antigua.

Following a disastrous Ashes tour which saw England lose 4-0 in a desperately one-sided series, it’s all change, with Ashley Giles and Chris Silverwood sacked as team director and head coach respectively, and fast bowlers James Anderson and Stuart Broad dropped. Dawid Malan, Jos Buttler and Rory Burns are gone, too, but Joe Root remains as captain.

Changes were always likely on the back of such a heavy Ashes defeat, but the omissions of Anderson and Broad were most controversial, given the veteran seamers have remained two of England’s best performers over the last few years, and indeed, in the Ashes itself.

Whether this is the end of the road for both, or perhaps one, remains to be seen, but few can argue that England’s chances in the Caribbean haven’t been weakened by such a bold selection call, and with Ollie Robinson having been ruled out of the first Test with a back niggle, England had better hope the hosts’ unpredictable batting line-up is in a charitable mood over the next few weeks.

Taking wickets could prove to be a real problem for England, particularly if the pitches don’t offer too much assistance, and Mark Wood’s extra pace is sure to be crucial. The Durham paceman claimed a brilliant five-wicket haul in St Lucia in 2019, so will be relishing the prospect of returning to these shores on the back of a strong personal Ashes showing.

Whether Wood will be asked to play three Tests in quick succession is unclear, for all his body held up really well in Australia. As such, England might be tempted to ensure he sits out one of the matches given a huge home summer ahead and the possibility that neither Anderson, Broad nor Jofra Archer will be in the selection mix.

That will mean extra responsibility falls on the shoulders of Chris Woakes, finally set to be given a chance with the new ball in Test cricket having so long walked in the shadows of Anderson and Broad. Woakes is a fine cricketer with strong numbers at home, but his record away from home is poor: from 17 Tests Woakes has claimed only 31 wickets at an average of 52.38.

Playing with the Dukes ball in the Caribbean will help the Warwickshire man, but with the likes of Craig Overton and Saqib Mahmood having much to prove at this level, I prefer the claims of JACK LEACH for top England series bowler honours.

Leach might seem like a strange pick having struggled in the Ashes when seemingly not having have the trust of his captain, Root, but part of England’s re-set must involve a balanced attack which includes spin, and Leach’s retention for this series – and the axing of Dom Bess – suggests that the Somerset man is finally going to be handed an extended opportunity.

An early look at the pitch in Antigua also promises a flat batting surface, so England really must pick their spinner, while the Kensington Oval, venue for the second Test, saw part-time off spinner Roston Chase claim eight wickets in the second innings against England in 2019.

The National Cricket Stadium in Grenada will host the third Test, and the last international cricket played on that ground came when South Africa wrist spinner Tabraiz Shamsi claimed seven wickets in a T20 match.

And so, even with the Dukes ball sure to offer the seamers something, I think there is good reason to think that spin will play a major role in this series, and that Root will have to back Leach to the hilt, both in order to enjoy immediate success and also try and rebuild one area of the bowling attack that has faltered badly under his tenure, through his own neglect as much as anything else.

As for Leach, this really does appear to be a make-or-break series for him, but when conditions have allowed, he has had his moments in an England shirt.

Let’s not forget that when England toured India in early 2021, Leach finished the series with 18 wickets from four matches. England’s next highest wicket-taker in that series was Anderson with 8 scalps. Leach has also taken 28 wickets from five Tests in Sri Lanka.

I’m not for one minute suggesting that conditions in the Caribbean will be like the sub-continent, but I think spin will be important, and the manner in which the West Indies’ white-ball teams struggled against Adil Rashid recently, and again in India, is something that England will surely have noted.

Leach finished with figures of 28-10-62-4 in the first innings of that recent warm-up game, and 14.1-6-25-2 in the second innings, proving by far the pick of the tourists' attack, so we at least know he is bowling well and has seemingly done enough to start on Tuesday.

Were Root to have displayed more confidence in Leach in the past, I’d be advising an even stronger bet for the left arm spinner to finish the series as England’s leading wicket-taker (9/2 – Coral and Ladbrokes), but even so, I still think there are enough boxes ticked to justify a decent investment.

• CLICK HERE to back LEACH with Sky Bet

In the batting department, I’m sure most observers will be fascinated to see how Root fares moving back up to number three in the order.

Similarly, the re-emergence of Zak Crawley in Australia offers genuine hope that England’s top three might finally inspire more confidence and produce better results.

One of my strategies in the Ashes was to take England’s lower order in the top England batsman market on an innings-by-innings basis. Chris Woakes top scored twice in that series from six innings, while Mark Wood has worked hard on his batting in the last 18 months and isn’t to be underestimated.

The issue with this strategy for the first Test in the Caribbean, at least, is that a flat pitch is expected in the first innings, and with virtually all of England’s batsmen making runs in the recent warm-up, there really will be no excuses for a poor showing in Antigua. To caveat that, Woakes did make an unbeaten 49 in that match.

It’s a similar line of thought that has just about persuaded me to abandon plans to back Jason Holder for top West Indies series batsman at 9/1 (Sky Bet).

Holder is a fine cricketer and an underrated batsman, with a Test average of 30.96 and a double hundred against England. The issue is, just like with England, that betting someone in the lower order when conditions are expected to be good for batting gives those higher up a better chance of batting long and going big.

Ordinarily, betting the England and West Indies middle and lower order at big prices is the way to go, for all Root generally dominates the overall series runs charts for England, but this is usually when expecting the new ball to wreak havoc as it did in Australia.

I’m not sure that will be the case in Antigua, so will revisit the Holder and Woakes strategy either in-play or ahead of the second Test.

It’s a similar story with Kemar Roach, too. The Barbadian is a terrific bowler who has caused England many problems over the years and is sure to trouble England’s batting line-up again, with his excellent control and ability to move the ball, particularly away from the left handers.

That isn’t good news for Alex Lees as he prepares for his maiden Test series, and Ben Stokes will have to be on his mettle, too, but the rest of England’s top seven will be made up of right handers and I do think that takes away one of Roach’s biggest weapons.

He will still be the West Indies’ chief threat, but there is enough to put me off backing Roach in any series or first Test bowler markets. Again, it’s a watching brief for me.

A stern challenge awaits England in the next few weeks – their last series win in the Caribbean came back in 2004 – but the West Indies are a flawed side, too, and the outright series betting, which just favours the tourists, isn't too far out to my eye.

As the series progresses, more betting opportunities are sure to present themselves, but for now, Leach appeals as the best wager on offer as is backed to prove the pick of a severely depleted England bowling attack.

Published at 1130 GMT on 07/03/22

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