Cricket betting tips T20 World Cup final: India v South Africa preview and best bets
India and South Africa meet in the final of the T20 World Cup in Bridgetown on Saturday afternoon – Richard Mann has three bets in his preview.
Cricket betting tips: India v South Africa
2pts Keshav Maharaj top South Africa bowler at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1.5pts Kuldeep Yadav top India bowler at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pt Kuldeep Yadav Man of the Match at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
India’s seemingly unstoppable charge to their second ICC T20 World Cup crown will meet its date with density on Saturday, when the pre-tournament favourites face South Africa in the final in Bridgetown, 3.30pm, UK time.
Barring a close shave against Pakistan earlier in the competition, India have not put a foot wrong and their demolition job on England in the semi-finals illustrated that this team has every base covered, with no weak links.
They remain unbeaten in the tournament, as do South Africa, also confirming this is very much the right final played between the two standout sides – though India will start as overwhelming favourites at around the 1/2 mark. South Africa are as big as 13/8 at the time of writing.
South Africa’s path to the final has been much more challenging. Aiden Markram’s side struggled past Nepal, Bangladesh and Netherlands earlier in the tournament, and ought to have lost to England subsequently.
Nevertheless, it was hard to fault the way in which they put Afghanistan to the sword in the last four, bowling them out for 56 before cruising to a nine-wicket win.
Pace aces Anrich Nortje and Kagiso Rabada have 13 and 12 wickets in the tournament already, while there has been excellent support from Marco Jansen and spinners Tabraiz Shamsi and Keshav Maharaj.
South Africa batting has questions to answer
I’d have a few more concerns about the batting. We’re still waiting for the usually destructive Heinrich Klaasen to explode and even accounting for some tough batting conditions, a tournament strike-rate of 112.19 is way down on what we would usually expect from him.
Quinton de Kock has at least hit form, two blistering half-centuries highlighting just how dangerous he can be in the powerplay. As Rohit showed against England on Thursday, that type of aggressive approach can prove match-winning on pitches that have tended to slow up throughout the innings.
That said, the surface in Bridgetown has been a pretty good one from what we have seen so far, England racing to 117-0 in 9.4 overs here against USA, that not long after West Indies chased down 130-1 for the loss of only one wicket in 10.5 overs against the same opposition. Australia made 201-7 against England, and India 181-8 against Afghanistan.
The promise of a decent surface would favour South Africa, who were rolled out for only 83 by India’s spinners when these two sides met at Eden Gardens in the 50-over World Cup last year. Ravi Jadeja claimed 5-33 on that occasion, Kuldeep Yadav 2-7 from 5.1 overs.
It’s those memories that suggest South Africa are up against it, with the added pressure of trying to finally win their first ICC event after so many near misses over the years. Markram can spin it however he wants, but the Proteas are carrying a weight of expectation built up over a long period of time.
Can India handle the pressure
As overwhelming favourites, India are under pressure, too. They fell at the final hurdle in that home World Cup last year having got stage fright when hammered in the last four of this competition by England in 2022.
They might well be the best team, but knockout cricket hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for this group.
All that adds a fascinating subplot to the final, but on what we know, India are the correct favourites with far more tools in their armoury. South Africa have fewer bullets to fire, but in the likes of Klaasen and Rababa, they do boast world-class operators who are capable of taking down the best on any given day.
I’ll stick with the side markets for a bet, kicking off with KULDEEP YADAV who landed top India bowler honours for these pages against England, involved in a two-way tie with Axar Patel but winning the market on the fewest runs conceded.
Be sure to check out your T&Cs on this one, but I’ll once again be advising the bet with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, and regardless, the case for Kuldeep is very sound.
The left-arm wrist spinner now has 10 wickets in the tournament at an average of 9.40 and a strike-rate of 9.6, which is the best in India’s squad, even better than Jasprit Bumrah (11.8).
He was outstanding against England as he claimed three middle-order wickets to go with the brace he took against Australia, and with a strike-rate of 5.8 against South Africa in T20Is and 27 wickets against the same opposition in 13 ODIs, everything points to another strong showing.
4/1 looks a knocking bet, and I’ll also have another swing at the Man of the Match market at 18/1.
I thought Rohit was desperately unlucky not to be awarded Man of the Match honours against England, having struck a fine, 39-ball 57 on a surface where only one other player made more than 25 with the bat.
Stop that Rohit Sharma 🔥
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) June 27, 2024
The India captain reaches 50 with a six! ☄️ pic.twitter.com/lk19wVFG33
He was seriously considered again, and I do like his match-up against Jansen, for all his high-risk approach in the powerplay clearly comes with plenty of drawbacks when backing him to deliver for the third match in a row.
Maharaj to work his magic
Should Rohit get through the powerplay, he’ll come up against KESHAV MAHARAJ who might have a bit to find on the numbers in order to win the top South Africa bowler market, but has more going for him than first meets the eye.
I can’t shake just how well Maharaj bowled when these two sides clashed in that aforementioned fixture at the 50-over World Cup, returning figures of 10-0-30-1 while the rest of the attack went the distance, South Africa conceding 326-5. Jansen leaked 94 from 9.4 overs, Shamsi 72 from 10 overs.
Maharaj caused India’s batsmen no end of problems on that occasion, looking unlucky to only claim a single wicket, and I can’t see him conceding too many even if South Africa aren’t able to pick up regular wickets, which could well be the case.
Shamsi was meat and drink to India that day, as was Jansen, so this suddenly has the look of a less competitive market than would usually be the case.
There is plenty of 9/2 kicking about for for Maharaj, and I’d prefer betting with a firm who settle a tie on the fewest runs conceded. Maharaj looks just the job for that, and Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook again oblige.
Posted at 1610 BST on 28/06/24
Related links
- Click here for Sky Bet's cricket odds
- Paul Krishnamurty's guide to the T20 World Cup grounds
- Paul Krishnamurty's T20 cricket betting masterclass
- Paul Krishnamurty's Test cricket betting masterclass
- Paul Krishnamurty's ODI cricket betting masterclass
- Latest Cricket Only Bettor IPL Podcast
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