India are very much the team to beat as they chase ICC Champions Trophy glory for a third time in only nine editions, their credentials once again showcased with a 3-0 thumping of England in the last few days, that hot on the heels of their 4-1 T20I series win over the same opposition.

This is a quite brilliant outfit and despite his detractors rearing their heads in recent months, they are exceptionally well led by Rohit Sharma who has dragged some of his batting colleagues kicking and screaming into the world of modern-day, white-ball cricket.

We saw that at the 2023 Cricket World Cup when Rohit provided his team with a series of electric starts, allowing someone like Virat Kohli to enjoy a more fruitful campaign in terms of runs scored, but at a slower rate.

Rohit saw the future much sooner than some others, but there is a place for everyone in this team and following heartbreak in the final of that 50-over World Cup, one which was meant to be the crowning glory of this team in front of their home fans, India made amends by winning the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean last year.

Kohli was one of the heroes in the final there, and he, Rohit, Rahul and Shubman Gill form the basis of another outstanding batting line-up. Rohit now has 32 international hundreds in this format alone, Kohli has 50. Gill still has some way to go with seven, but the younger man is currently averaging 60.16 from 30 ODIs. These are staggering numbers.

As ever, the bowling relies heavily on spin. The experienced Ravi Jadeja remains thoroughly dependable, Kuldeep Yadav more so these days. England will still be having nightmares about Varun Chakravarthy and his performances against them mean he has been handed a late call-up in the final squad at the expense of Yashasvi Jaiswal.

Varun Chakravarthy celebrates another wicket

Varun Chakravarthy celebrates another England wicket

It beggars belief that India haven’t been able to make room in their squad for a player of Jaiswal’s class, or indeed Rishabh Pant, or Suryakumar Yadav, or even Tilak Varma who is the newest star of the T20 side.

When you throw in the fact that India will be able to base themselves solely in Dubai, where they will play all of their group matches and the final, should they get that far, it’s clear there is an awful lot in their favour.

Reasons to oppose red-hot India?

But – there’s always a but isn’t there? India were similarly red-hot favourites for that World Cup at home in 2023, only to fall at the final hurdle, and it’s hard to get overly excited about a 7/4 chance that could easily trade bigger should they find themselves behind in a semi-final or a final.

The biggest drawback in siding with the short-priced favourites, however, is the injury to star bowler Jasprit Bumrah who has now been ruled out of the tournament.

Bumrah claimed 20 wickets at an average of 18.65 in the 2023 World Cup, and without his intervention late in the final of the T20 World Cup against South Africa, India would not have won that match. Again, Bumrah was the difference.

And though conditions were vastly different to what we can expect in the next few weeks, it was plain as day to see the huge drop off from Bumrah to the rest of the India attack in the recent Test series loss in Australia. Bumrah was run into the ground in that series, in the main because the rest of the Indian attack proved impotent.

Make no mistake, Bumrah’s absence is a colossal blow to India and while they may well have the quality to overcome it, I can see this attack leaking some big runs at the death.

With that in mind, I just can’t get involved at such a short price.

Jasprit Bumrah will miss the Champion Trophy

Ravaged Australia reeling from injuries

Current world champions Australia are next in the betting at 9/2, but this is a markedly different side from the one that defied the odds in India.

Captain Pat Cummins is injured, as is fellow paceman Josh Hazlewood, while the final act of the ‘big three’, Mitchell Starc, misses the tournament for personal reasons. With David Warner and Marcus Stoinis now both retired, and Cameron Green and Mitchell Marsh still on the injured list, too, there are some huge holes for Australia to fill.

Steve Smith’s continued excellence and Alex Carey’s fine form could carry them so far, especially if Travis Head clicks, but this is a batting line-up that has just been embarrassed badly in Sri Lanka.

They clearly have work to do, for all it is always dangerous to discount Australia, and the bowling is now incredibly reliant on Adam Zampa and Sean Abbott. The latter could find this a huge step up from dominating the Big Bash.

Proving people wrong has become a forte of Australian cricket teams, but 9/2 looks very short when, on the face of it, they are no certainties to get out of Group B, with South Africa, England and Afghanistan all likely to fancy their chances of finishing in the top two.

England dangerous if overcoming spin issues

England come into the tournament on the back of a bruising tour of India, but very few are able to trouble India on their home patch and England had their moments there, with the likes of Jos Buttler and the returning Joe Root both confirming themselves in good form and to still be forces in this format.

Their batting against spin remains a major concern, though not so for Buttler and Root. Moreover, England play their three group matches in Pakistan on pitches that have historically been very good for batting.

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That really ought to be in England’s favour, even more so now Brendon McCullum has taken charge of the white-ball teams and immediately demanded an all-out attack approach befitting his Bazball reputation and general coaching philosophy.

Despite his struggles in India, we shouldn’t forget what an outstanding record Harry Brook can boast in Pakistan, both in international cricket and in the Pakistan Super League, while a late call-up for the immensely talented Tom Banton has the potential to transform England’s batting line-up, should McCullum be brave enough to make a few tough selection calls.

Mark Wood and Jofra Archer might just represent the fastest opening bowling attack in the competition, so there is real firepower in the attack, and class and guile from Adil Rashid.

They will still leak runs, especially at the death, but that might well prove par for the course in the next few weeks, and I’m not totally down on England’s chances if they can just strike a better balance between attack and defence with the bat.

Power-packed Proteas need to defy history

South Africa (15/2) are also live contenders from Group B. Their destructive batting line-up very nearly carried them to T20 World Cup glory last year, and in the last 50-over World Cup they only narrowly lost out to Australia despite once again failing to produce their best cricket in the semi-finals.

It was so typical of South Africa that they had hammered Australia earlier in the competition but weren’t able to repeat that level of performance in a knockout match, and their wait for an ICC tournament win goes on.

Still, any team with a batting unit featuring the likes Heinrich Klaasen, Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram and David Miller must be respected. There is so much power in that batting line-up and in the 2023 World Cup they posted five scores of 350 plus, including 428-5 against Sri Lanka.

You want to see one more Heinrich Klaasen shot? Okay. Here you go. 🥶#TheHundred pic.twitter.com/TGiKmOXvTL
— The Hundred (@thehundred) August 9, 2023

The final team of the Group B quartet is Afghanistan, and they are sure to prove popular having won four of their nine matches at the last 50-over World Cup.

Rashid Khan headlines a talented outfit which features classy opening batter Ibrahim Zadran, but this looks a trappy group to me and I suspect they’ll come up short again.

Black Caps enjoy perfect preparation

If pushed, I’d take South Africa to top the group ahead of England, but the side I want to put up against India is NEW ZEALAND, who might just be the value in the outright market at 8/1 with Sky Bet.

New Zealand have always punched above their weight in ICC events, and they went close to winning one in 2021 when reaching the final of the T20 World Cup in the UAE. They were also runners-up in the 2015 and 2019 World Cups, the latter when losing that unforgettable Super Over against England at Lord’s.

Few gave them a chance in the 2023 renewal, but they were strong enough to reach the last four before losing to India when posting a very respectable 327 after India had made use of winning a good toss and amassed 397-4.

At the time, there was a sense that was the final chance gone for a very fine generation of New Zealand players, but, though the likes of Trent Boult and Tim Southee have now walked away, so much experience and quality remains.

Kane Williamson remains the cornerstone of the batting at number three, ably supported by Tom Latham, Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell. The outstanding Matt Henry has taken on the role of attack leader with aplomb, while spinner Mitchell Santner continues to get better and better.

Matt Henry

Williamson’s career average in this format is nudging fifty, while Conway’s currently sits in the mid-forties, and Mitchell’s is 50.42. It makes for a very strong and reliable top four, with the terrific Glenn Phillips and Michael Bracewell tasked with providing the fireworks later in the innings. Santner gives the line-up real depth at eight.

Though they have been around for a few years now, Phillips and Rachin Ravindra are very much seen as the new breed of exciting Kiwi cricketers, and the latter took the 2023 World Cup in India by storm, finishing with 578 runs at 64.22, with three hundreds. He is a special talent.

So, too, is Will O’Rourke, who for my money is the best young fast bowler in the world at present. He has already impressed in Test cricket and warmed up for the Champions Trophy by claiming 4-43 as New Zealand wrapped up their preparation by beating Pakistan in the final of a Tri-Nation series that also included South Africa on Friday.

In truth, that was a thumping win for New Zealand, who didn’t lose a game, and on that form alone it’s hard to understand why they are a bigger price than their hosts and South Africa for Champions Trophy glory.

18 months ago, I might’ve worried about New Zealand’s batting in a high-scoring tournament and questioned whether they had the big-boy power to match some of the other teams, but that top seven has a nice blend of touch and class through Conway and Williamson, and then the power and brawn of Mitchell and Phillips.

The bowling might not be quite as strong, or certainly boasting as many options – and I’d love to have seen the aforementioned Boult here – but Henry, O’Rourke and Santner look three bankers, while the likes of Bracewell and Phillips provide handy spin support in conditions that should suit.

What are the best bets?

Moreover, when you look at many of the other contenders, there are holes aplenty in the respective bowling attacks – most notably the threadbare world champions – and I’m backing New Zealand’s strong batting to do most of the heavy lifting.

The Black Caps always field well, another absolute must nowadays, and they have always been able to step up and raise their standards in big matches. Where we might question the likes of South Africa and Pakistan in such scenarios, New Zealand have always been bombproof and able to produce regardless of the situation.

New Zealand won a Test series in India last year

Although being drawn in the same group as India might initially appear a disadvantage, I don’t see it that way. The 2023 World Cup semi-final proved they can compete with this Indian team, one which had Bumrah fit and firing on that occasion, but regardless, if New Zealand do qualify from this group with India, they won’t be playing the tournament favourites in the semi-finals.

Get out of the group and a wonderful opportunity awaits – most likely against a fallible South Africa or an inconsistent England.

CLICK HERE to back New Zealand to win the Champions Trophy with Sky Bet

As such, backing New Zealand to reach the final at 10/3 looks the first port of call, with a smaller bet for them to win the tournament at 8/1 also advised.

CLICK HERE to back New Zealand to reach the final with Sky Bet

Pakistan hard to fancy on home turf

That recent Tri-Nations triumph has New Zealand some way ahead of Pakistan, a side they comfortably beat twice there.

Even on home turf, I’m struggling to muster much enthusiasm for Pakistan whose batting has some quality, but will desperately miss the services of dynamic opener Saim Ayub.

As ever, much will depend on the output of Mohammad Rizwan, Salman Agha and Babar Azam. Despite the hype, the latter just hasn’t delivered for his country of late.

The bowling, once revered, has lost some of its gloss and the lack of a dependable spinner in white-ball cricket could leave them particularly vulnerable as the tournament goes on.

Pakistan just have so many question marks against them at present and, frankly, quotes as short of 6/1 make little sense whatsoever.

Bangladesh, making up the Group A four, are expected to struggle, just as they did at the last World Cup in India, so all pointers suggest this group will prove to be shootout between New Zealand and Pakistan to qualify along with India. I’ll be very disappointed if it isn’t the Kiwis.

As such, New Zealand look best placed to give supporters a good run for our money, with a deep run highly likely before another rematch with India could await in the final.

Posted at 1535 GMT on 16/02/25