Richard Mann has a series of big-priced bets picked out in his preview of the ICC Champions Trophy specials markets.
Cricket betting tips: ICC Champions Trophy
1pt Temba Bavuma top tournament batsman at 33/1 (General)
1pt Kane Williamson top tournament batsman at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
2pts South Africa to have the highest innings score at 6/1 (bet365, 888Sport )
2pts Alex Carey top Australian tournament batsman at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Salman Agha top Pakistan tournament batsman at 16/1 (bet365, Betway)
1pt Ravi Jadeja top India tournament bowler at 10/1 (Unibet, Betway)
Take two for top tournament batsman
It’s been a while between drinks for the Champions Trophy, but in the last renewal back in 2017, the three leading tournament runscorers were openers, with the top five completed by two who batted at number three.
Realistically, the winner of the top tournament batsman market will only have four or five games to go at – five being if your team makes it through to the final – so it’s very hard to see the middle order winning, particularly from one the leading sides that might bowl first in a couple of games and only have moderate scores to chase down.
I won’t be backing anyone lower than number three, but I do think this is an attractive market for a bet, with the likelihood that one big hundred and perhaps another couple of fifties will get you close. Shikhar Dhawan did just that in 2017 when finishing as top dog.
You clearly want someone who will go big once set, perhaps even that ‘anchor’ type player data analysts hate so much, but who remain very reliable in top batsman markets.
I’ll kick off by backing South Africa captain and opening batsman TEMBA BAVUMA who is in the midst of a real purpose patch right now.
Different format but Bavuma has made two hundreds and three half-centuries in his last four Test matches, and back in this format, struck 82 before being run out against Pakistan only last week.
Bavuma boasts a very fine overall record in ODI cricket, averaging 43.32 in a 46-match career that has yielded five hundreds. Moreover, his game is well suited to all conditions.
Crucially, Bavuma will be opening the batting in a power-packed South Africa line-up that does need someone to bat around, and that man is so often their reliable skipper.
I have the Proteas down to the make semi-finals, so there’s enough going for Bavuma to warrant a bet at 33/1.
I’ll add a second string to my bow, with KANE WILLIAMSON looking extremely solid at 16/1.
In that 2017 Champions Trophy, Williamson might well have finished as leading runscorer had New Zealand made it out of the group stages. In three matches, Williamson had already recorded a century and two fifties, at an average of 81.33, before the Kiwis were sent home.
Eight years on, Williamson remains the pillar of the New Zealand batting line-up and he looked fit and healthy in the recent SA20, before joining up with the Black Caps and putting together scores of 58, 133 not out and 34 in their Tri-Nations series win over Pakistan and South Africa.
Williamson is a master against spin, so won’t be fazed by whatever conditions are thrown his way in the coming weeks, and a career average of 49.54 in this format confirms what a world-class 50-over cricket batsman he is.
I’ve already backed New Zealand to win the event and reach the final, so I’m clearly expecting Williamson to have plenty of opportunities to score runs, and we know he is the type to go big once set.
He looks an ideal candidate for top tournament batsman honours, and I’m happy to snap up the 16/1 on offer.
Proteas power cannot be ignored
SOUTH AFRICA look good bet at 6/1 to record the highest individual innings score in the tournament.
As is the case with the outright market, India dominate the book at 7/4, but even when enjoying an almost picture-perfect tournament and reaching the final of the 2023 50-over World Cup at home, India weren’t able to win this market.
India made hay against the Netherlands, posting 410-4, but that didn’t really come close to the 428-5 South Africa amassed against Sri Lanka. For good measure, South Africa made the fourth highest score of that World Cup as well, 399-7 against England.
In fact, South Africa finished with three of the nine highest innings scores in that tournament, no surprise given their line-up features Temba Bavuma, Heinrich Klaasen, Aiden Markram and David Miller,
This batting unit is the most dangerous in the competition and while it won’t always fire, when it does, they will rack up some seriously big scores. The group match at Rawalpindi against a depleted, injury-ravaged Australia attack certainly stands out.
Of course, each of the eight sides will get their opportunity to score big runs on a flat pitch somewhere along the way, but I don’t think there is a top six as aggressive and powerful as this Proteas one, and in Klaasen, there isn’t a finisher to match him in world cricket right now.
India’s fixture against Bangladesh, clearly the weakest side in the tournament, could spell danger, but India could easily find themselves batting last and chasing a small total in that game. That would certainly be their preference at the toss in Dubai.
Australia could have big scores in them, though not on the evidence of their recent hammering in Sri Lanka, while England are still a very dangerous side if everything clicks. Like South Africa, Jos Buttler's side are all about attack.
But on recent evidence, England’s batting doesn’t match up to South Africa’s in this format, or any format, and while I expect a deep run from New Zealand in the next few weeks, the Proteas still edge them in the power stakes.
As such, 6/1 looks a knocking bet, certainly on price grounds, and I’ll be betting accordingly.
Carey can lead the way for depleted Aussies
It’s been a remarkable 18 months for ALEX CAREY who surely wasn’t far away from being relieved of his duties as first-choice wicket-keeper for Australia until producing a Man of the Match performance with the bat in a Test match against New Zealand in Christchurch in March, 2024.
Since then, Carey hasn’t looked back. His returns have been excellent, but as much as the numbers, he has looked reborn, full of confidence and in fine touch every time he has come to the crease.
He batted well in the Test series win over India a few months ago and then carried that forward with a magnificent 156 in the second of two Test matches against Sri Lanka in Galle, having made 46 not out in the first.
In the longest format, it seems Australia have an embarrassment of riches, but they arrive at this tournament ravaged by injuries to key players following the retirements of David Warner and Marcus Stoinis.
Steve Smith continues to score runs, and Glenn Maxwell was outstanding in the recent Big Bash, but there are others in this batting line-up with questions to answer. Crucially, they might want a left-hander in that top five, with Carey looking ideal to move up the order.
In a series in which they were drubbed 2-0 by Sri Lanka as their warm-up for the Champions Trophy, Carey looked in fine touch when stroking 41 from 38 balls in the first game, before sitting out the following match.
He could be the value at 10/1 for top Australia tournament runscorer.
Juicy price about Jadeja
With just three group games, and then a potential semi-final and final, the top tournament bowler markets have the potential to be volatile.
I did consider taking the big prices about the excellent Matt Henry for top overall bowler, similarly Brydon Carse who has made an excellent start to life as an international cricketer. With spin sure to be a big factor, cases can be made for any of the big-name wrist spinners.
However, nothing really stands out, so instead I’ll take the 10/1 about RAVI JADEJA for top India tournament bowler.
With Jasprit Bumrah out of the tournament, and Mohammed Siraj dropped, this market has a more open look to it, and Arshdeep Singh and Kuldeep might not be as far clear of the competition as the betting suggests.
Jadeja seems a sure-fire starter throughout, given his excellent batting and unrivalled fielding makes him such a priceless asset in all formats, especially in an Indian team carrying a few older legs in the field.
Jadeja wouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a strike-bowler in this format, but in the 2023 World Cup at home, he still finished with 16 wickets, only four behind Bumrah. Mohammed Shami had a remarkable tournament, claiming 24 scalps, but he has since had a long time out of the game with serious injury and looked off the pace on his return against England.
Conversely, Jadeja claimed six wickets in two games against England and looks much too big at the general 10/1 when considering the amount of overs he will get through.
Salman too big to sidestep
Again on price grounds, SALMAN AGHA completes the staking plan, the 16/1 with bet365 and Betway for him to finish at Pakistan’s top tournament runscorer very appealing. The 12/1 available with Sky Bet still looks way out.
As ever, the layers have gone giddy over Babar Azam, whose elevation to the top of the order clearly helps his cause. Nevertheless, he has hardly pulled up any trees of late and was dropped from the Test team only last year.
I have an awful lot of respect for Mohammad Rizwan who is likely to bat at number four, and while Babar only mustered 62 runs in Pakistan’s three matches in the recent Tri-Nations series against New Zealand and South African, Rizwan made 171 runs at an average of 85.50.
However, trumping both was the criminally underrated Salman who finished with 219 runs at 73.00, thanks to scores of 40, 134 and 45. It confirmed a real hot streak for Salman who also outscored Babar and Rizwan in the three-match ODI series in South Africa in December, averaging 81.50.
With exciting opener Saim Ayub injured, it has meant all three of Babar, Rizwan and Salman have moved up the batting order, and I’m hopeful that number five proves a good fit for the last named, who certainly scores quickly enough to catch up.
I’ve been consistent in my belief that the top three are at a big advantage in this market, in these conditions and such a short competition, but I’ve also been consistent in my view that Babar is wildly overrated. He’s certainly beatable in this market, as recent evidence demonstrates.
It all comes back to price – and Salman just screams value at 16/1.
Posted at 1605 GMT on 17/02/25
ALSO READ: Richard Mann's Champions Trophy preview
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- Click here for Sky Bet's cricket odds
- Richard Mann's Champions Trophy preview
- Richard Mann's Champions Trophy specials preview
- Paul Krishnamurty's Champions Trophy preview
- Champions Trophy match-by-match tips
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