Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v England third Test preview and best bets
Pakistan and England renew hostilities in Karachi on Saturday – check out Richard Mann's third Test preview and best bets here.
Cricket tips: Pakistan v England third Test
2pts Mohammad Wasim top Pakistan first innings bowler at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Mohammad Wasim to be Man of the Match at 33/1 (Unibet)
2pts Imam-Ul-Haq to make a first innings fifty at 7/4 (General)
1pt Imam-Ul-Haq to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Boylesports)
Much has been made of ‘Bazball’ and the impact England's new philosophy has had in transforming the fortunes of the Test team, culminating in a highly significant series win in Pakistan just a matter of days ago, but it would be naive to think that is the only reason for England’s success on the subcontinent.
It is true the likes of Harry Brook, Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley have given their bowling attack big runs and lots of time to work with, but we shouldn’t underestimate the role England’s seamers played in victories in the first two Tests, and that’s where the visitors have really trumped their hosts.
When Australia won on these shores earlier in the year, it was Pat Cummins who was the difference between the two bowling attacks – not Nathan Lyon’s off spin as many might have expected – and it has been England’s pacers who have delivered the knockout blow in both matches on this tour.
Reverse swing the difference so far
Despite Rawalpindi offering nothing for the seamers, and then Multan proving to be slow and low, James Anderson and Ollie Robinson have managed eight wickets each at an average of 18.50 and 18.37 respectively. Mark Wood took six wickets in the second Test, having sat out the series opener.
Jack Leach has picked up eight wickets so far with his left-arm finger spin, but he has delivered almost double the number of overs that Anderson and Robinson have.
Leach’s series average of 57.12 is a poor return, in truth, and speaks to a wider issue going forward in regard to England's frontline spinner who has been far more expensive than the seamers in conditions that have suited him much better.
What it also tells us is that the fast bowlers, though rarely able to find conventional swing and seam, have remained a more constant threat through their unwavering accuracy, clever use of the bouncer that can be much harder to duck on these slow, low pitches, and the most important factor of all – reverse swing.
The tourists found it just in time in Rawalpindi as Anderson and Robinson led England’s victory march, and again in Multan as Wood’s extra pace and slingy action proved perfect for the full, attacking length needed to utilise reverse swing best.
This is where England have really held the edge over Pakistan. Stokes has backed his seamers in selection, and then in the big moments. And they have been good enough to deliver.
Pakistan, after the mauling in Rawalpindi, have gone the other way. Wrist spinner Abrar Ahmed was brought in for the second Test and made an immediate impact by taking 11 wickets in the match, though he was helped by a spinning pitch and the fact he was required to get through a huge amount of overs.
But having only picked one frontline seamer, alongside all-rounder Faheem Ashraf, Pakistan had no real option in terms of reverse swing, a weapon that has always been so crucial in this part of the world and one that England have utilised so well.
Babar Azam’s team have been hurt by injuries, but I fully expect MOHAMMAD WASIM to make his Test debut this week, having been with the squad for the first two Tests following a breakthrough tournament at the recent T20 World Cup.
Wasim ready to rumble after T20 World Cup heroics
Wasim finished the World Cup with eight scalps, impressing with his high pace and deadly yorker, and his tournament strike-rate of 12.7 was the best of Pakistan’s exceptional attack. That attack featured the likes of Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf – both missing from this match because of injury.
Perhaps the most impressive weapon in Wasim’s armoury was his ability to reverse swing the white Kookaburra ball after only 15 overs or so, something we seldom saw from any other bowler in Australia.
Wasim is an an absolute must for Pakistan this week when you consider how reverse swing has already shaped this series.
I have the utmost respect for Abrar in the top Pakistan bowler market, but we’re betting on the first innings here when spin, in theory, should make less of an impact. He looks short enough, with 5/2 the best on offer, and I much prefer Wasim at 5/1.
🇵🇰 THAT'LL DO IT! PAKISTAN WIN! 🇵🇰
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) December 13, 2021
Mohammad Wasim knocks over Oshane Thomas and that wraps up a 63-run win, West Indies 137 all out.
Pakistan take a 1-0 lead in the three-match series.
📺 #PAKvWI reaction on Sky Sports Cricket 👉 https://t.co/bT0CP9Q8No pic.twitter.com/g1OJCjzoSW
Given how close Pakistan were to winning either of the first two Tests – and they traded at odds-on in both run chases – I wouldn’t rule out a consolation for the hosts in Karachi should they get selection right, meaning a small bet on Wasim in the Man of the Match market at 33/1 (Unibet) also appeals.
It will be interesting to see whether England throw all of Anderson, Robinson and Wood out of the door again after an arduous few weeks, and don’t be at all surprised if the latter in particular is looked after with kid gloves with an Ashes series in the summer now firmly on the horizon.
I made the case for backing Jamie Overton in the top England bowler market last week, owing to his extra pace, and he could well earn a recall this week. If not, Robinson would edge out Anderson as my pick in this market.
Crawley conundrum and Imam appeal
The second Test was a quiet one for Zak Crawley after he landed the money for these pages in Rawalpindi, but it’s more conditions than one lean match that is putting me off rowing in again on Saturday.
The whole basis for my argument around Crawley on this tour was around the idea that he would be able to make hay on some flat pitches. That was certainly the case in the first Test, but following some harsh criticism of the pitch in Rawalpindi, Multan wasn’t as easy to bat on and Crawley not as effective.
I’m not entirely sure what we’ll get this week, with spin and reverse swing potentially on the cards, and it’s enough to be put off the Kent man who is conditions dependent in my opinion.
The fact Crawley was 8/1 to make a century in the first Test, and again last week, but is only 5/1 now, seals the deal.
Instead, I’m much happier keeping with faith with IMAM-UL-HAQ who has posted scores 128, 48, 0 and 60 in the series so far.
Imam currently averages 66.55 in Tests at home, and he looks to have a sound game for these conditions. Furthermore, as a left-hander, he has found things relatively comfortable against England’s chief spin threat, Leach.
I’ve no interest in taking on Babar in the top Pakistan batsman market, but 7/4 for Imam to make a first-innings fifty is fair enough, with 6/1 about him reaching three figures worth a smaller investment.
Preview posted at 1400 GMT on 15/12/2022
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