Richard Mann's preview for Sunday's T20 World Cup final between Pakistan and England features three bets, ranging from 20/1 to 4/6.
Cricket tips: T20 World Cup final Pakistan v England
3pts England to have the highest first 6 overs score at 4/6 (General)
1pt Ben Stokes to be Man of the Match at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Iftikhar Ahmed to be Man of the Match at 20/1 (General)
Unlikely heroes.
When England were beaten by Ireland in their second Super 12 match at the MCG, and Pakistan to Zimbabwe soon after, an England-Pakistan final appeared highly unlikely. Just about impossible.
Over three years earlier, Alex Hales was jettisoned by England on the eve of the 50-over World Cup for yet another disciplinary issue, not featuring in England colours since. His international career appeared over, just as it did when Hales wasn’t named in England’s original squad for this World Cup.
But then a freak injury to Jonny Bairstow handed Hales a lifeline and a plane ticket to Australia, before Pakistan hauled themselves back from 43-4 against South Africa, then watched the Proteas suffer a shock defeat to Netherlands, Babar Azam’s side scrambling home against Bangladesh only hours later to somehow progress to the semi-finals.
Hales and England were in a similarly precarious position in Group 1, but the Nottinghamshire batsman, along with Ben Stokes – famously an old friend and more recently an apparent foe – guided England to a scrappy victory over Sri Lanka and into the last four.
Babar, for his part, brushed off a torrid run of form to come good with a glorious half-century which turned a potentially tricky run chase into a relatively comfortable semi-final defeat of New Zealand. England, brave and bold, smashed a timid India 24 hours later as Hales and Buttler produced an unbroken opening stand of 170 in only 16 overs.
England versus Pakistan at the MCG, then. Winner takes all. Nope, not many had that story scripted when Ireland and Zimbabwe were pulling off seismic shocks that will be written into T20 World Cup folklore.
🏴🙌 ENGLAND ARE IN THE T20 WORLD CUP FINAL!
— Sporting Life 🎯🔴🎾⛳️🥊🏏🏉 🏈 (@SportingLifeFC) November 10, 2022
🤯 A record-breaking partnership of 170 between Alex Hales (86 from 47) and Jos Buttler (80 off 49) saw them annihilate India by 10 wickets with 24 balls to spare!
💪 Buttler finished it with a six!pic.twitter.com/coiy4Fhmdo
Fearless England and dangerous Pakistan come good
But as is true in so many sports, tournament play is about peaking at the right time. Finding a way to make the latter stages, by any means possible, and then producing your best form in the big matches when everything is at stake.
It’s no good peaking too soon. Just ask India, who beat Pakistan in the Super 12s, or South Africa, who looked unstoppable until Pakistan’s previously struggling middle-order knocked them off course. New Zealand, even – fearless when thumping Australia, but ponderous and nervy when the knockouts came along.
England: brave and bold. Pakistan: unpredictable but oh so talented, with a bowling attack to die for. What a final we could have.
England are sure to go off strong favourites, possibly an overreaction on the back off that 10-wicket win over India, with Pakistan as big as 13/10 at the time of writing.
Given England have been such a dominant force in white-ball cricket in recent years, the favourites' tag is something they deserve, but Pakistan were outstanding against New Zealand, as they were in the home straight against South Africa.
Where Pakistan hold a clear advantage is with the ball. Their attack has been the best on show throughout the tournament and if Mark Wood isn’t passed fit, Haris Rauf, a once again fully firing Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah and Mohammad Wasim trump England for pace and, on what we’ve seen so far, skill.
Sam Curran has been excellent throughout, a revelation, even, and Chris Woakes has had his moments, but Pakistan’s pace stocks are deeper, more intimidating, and yet to be really stretched. Both sides posses world-class wrist spinners in Adil Rashid and Shadab Khan, but Pakistan are the kings of speed.
Another concern for England fans is just how badly they played on their previous visit to the MCG, when there was pace and lateral movement on offer for Ireland’s bowlers who made England’s top order look ordinary.
Conditions in Adelaide were flat on Thursday, with the short square boundaries inviting, but Melbourne is vast, and the pitch generally has something for the bowlers. A different test awaits for Buttler's men.
Weather watch in Melbourne
With plenty of wet weather around in Melbourne – though things have improved a little since the spate of washouts there a few weeks ago – expect Afridi to pitch the ball up early and look for sideways movement to test England’s top order. After that, Rauf and Naseem will hit the pitch hard with pace and bounce, hoping to lure England into taking on the big square boundaries.
That said, this is a very strong England batting line-up when it clicks and having Liam Livingstone pencilled in at number seven, with Curran and Woakes to follow, gives them depth that Pakistan cannot compete with.
If Pakistan boast the stronger bowling attack, the balance of power swings back when you compare the batting. Babar and Mohammad Rizwan are brilliant up top, and the middle-order has started to fire again, but the depth and power of England is superior.
Clearly, conditions will be key to how this plays out and one senses that if the skies are clear and the pitch good for batting, England might have too many guns in a potentially high-scoring match. If the bowlers hold sway, and something in the region of 160 becomes par, Pakistan will fancy the job.
The weather, in particular, does put me off betting in the match market at this stage. I think there are certainly trading possibilities with taking the outsider, in this case Pakistan, but I’m happy to sit this one out and look elsewhere.
Aggressive England can win early race
The strongest play of the match comes in the HIGHEST FIRST 6 OVERS SCORE market, where England are worth a rare investment at odds-on – in this case 4/6.
Pakistan’s opening partnership has been a very successful one, but their mantra has always been to start with caution and then pick up the pace later. Their powerplay score of 55-0 against New Zealand was easily their best of the tournament, with 42-3 against South Africa their next best.
England, led by Hales and Buttler, have taken the opposite approach and even when struggling in tough batting conditions against Ireland, still managed 37-3 – their worst powerplay total of the competition. 70-0 against Sri Lanka and 63-0 against India are England's two latest powerplay offerings.
Pakistan’s bowling attack will pose a different challenge, but it won’t deter England from attacking, and they rate very strong favourites in this market.
Stokes set to revel again on big stage
I started the piece by naming unlikely heroes, and two more names to fall into that bracket complete the staking plan, with both worth small investments in the Man of the Match market.
It’s a good three years since BEN STOKES was Man of the Match in the 50-over World Cup final at Lord’s, somehow forcing a Super Over with New Zealand which England would eventually win on the last ball.
Since then, Stokes has become Test captain, retired from ODI cricket, and made only fleeting appearances in this format. He didn’t play at this year’s IPL. And it has shown.
Stokes looked off the pace at the start of this World Cup, despite England’s insistence that he would bat in the pivotal number four position. And then, when England needed their talisman most, he delivered – holding England’s faltering run chase against Sri Lanka together with an unbeaten 42.
The Durham all-rounder has made a genuinely great career out of saving his best cricket for the biggest games, the biggest moments, and once again he delivered with England's hopes on the line. I heard Stokes referred to as ‘the greatest clutch sportsman of all time’ this week, and while fans of Tiger Woods, Ronaldo, or Roger Federer might disagree, Lord’s and Headingley help make a compelling case.
His patchy form might tell us something different, but I suspect Stokes will have a big say on Sunday. And there are tactical reasons to think so, too.
Stokes has used the new ball really well at this World Cup, and if he can get it swinging and nick off one of Pakistan’s big fish early, he could shape the game in England’s direction.
Furthermore, how England counter the threat posed by Pakistan’s leg spinner Shadab will be crucial, but the left-handed Stokes will at an immediate advantage here and he is a terrific player of spin.
And if he can take down Shadab, that might force Pakistan to turn to their batting all-rounder IFTIKHAR AHMED whose off spin is underrated and could be required to get through some overs against an England top eight featuring plenty of left-handers, with or without injury doubt Dawid Malan.
Iftikhar bowled really well against Bangladesh in a similar scenario, but it’s his calm batting in the middle-order that has really impressed me. There’s a bit of Misbah-ul-Haq in the way he bats and that’s no bad thing, with half-centuries against South Africa and India both coming in high-pressure situations against fine bowling attacks.
The fifty against India was made on this ground, too, and he’s the sort of character I want on my side in a big game like this.
Not a big name like Babar or Rizwan, Iftikhar is something of an unlikely hero. Just a few weeks ago, Stokes was, too. And Hales, for that matter.
The same goes for England and Pakistan to a certain extent, both teams having come back from the cliff edge and now finding themselves standing on the verge of the most unlikely of T20 World Cup victories.
Unlikely heroes, indeed.
Preview posted at 1600 GMT on 10/11/2022
How to watch the T20 World Cup final
England’s T20 World Cup final against Pakistan will be shown on free-to-air after Sky agreed to share coverage of the showpiece with Channel 4.
The match begins at 8am UK time and will be simulcast across Channel 4 HD, Sky Sports Cricket, and Sky Sports Main Event.
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