Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v England second Test preview and best bets for Multan

Cricket betting tips: England v Pakistan

1.5pts Jack Leach to be Man of the Match at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Sajid Khan to be Man of the Match at 20/1 (bet365)

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Where to start?

The second of three Tests between Pakistan and England begins in Multan on Tuesday morning, 6.00am, UK time, just a matter of days after the visitors wrapped up a remarkable come-from-behind victory in the first Test, despite conceding 556 in the first innings.

Harry Brook quipped after his magnificent triple hundred last week that he would like to roll up the Multan pitch and carry it around with him, so flat and placid did it play, but I doubt very much that he would’ve expected the very same pitch to be used for the second Test just a few days on.

I’m sure this has happened before, even in the modern day, but I can’t recall such an instance, and it smacks of desperation and a touch of frustration, too, Pakistan well aware their impotent bowling attack won’t hurt England without considerable assistance from the surface. And having copped so much criticism for producing yet another Pakistan featherbed, perhaps this is the PCB’s way of sticking two fingers up at those critics.

Babar on his bike after lean spell

And that isn’t the half of it. With their knives well and truly sharpened, the PCB dropped another bombshell on Sunday, with star batsman and former captain Babar Azam axed along with senior pace bowlers Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah.

For what it’s worth, Babar has probably got what he deserved following a prolonged period of poor returns and a seeming inability to stand up in key moments against the very best teams. This is a poor side and regardless of reputation, you can’t continue to carry a player who has averaged only a dot above 20 since the beginning of 2023.

I have similar thoughts in regards to Shaheen who hasn’t looked the bowler he once was for a while now. But I thought Naseem was one of the best bowlers on show in the first Test, bowling with good pace and great heart even as Brook and Joe Root cut loose. I can’t fathom his omission, particularly with Pakistan's line-up already losing two experienced players.

Reduced to a mere sidenote, England are expected to welcome back captain Ben Stokes after he was deemed fully fit following a hamstring injury. With some tired bodies in the England camp and a rare shortage in the bowling department, England will hope Stokes is fit enough to get through his share of overs.

Anything else? Nope, that might be it. It’s never dull with Pakistan cricket, is it?

Used pitch awaits for second Test

Back to this pitch, then. Despite Pakistan’s third innings implosion last week, for the most part the wicket was just about as flat as you could ever wish to see in Test cricket. The bounce was true, and only very late in the peace did spin become a factor.

It would need to deteriorate badly for it become something else just a few days later, but what worries me is not day one or two, but what happens after that. It doesn’t matter how much water the groundstaff have applied to the surface in the last few days, the general rule for cricket pitches is that the longer you play on the same one, the slower and lower it will inevitably become.

Nowadays, pitches tend hold together much better than they used to – you only have to look at places like Lord’s in England to see that. But everything has its limit and the prospect of 10 days’ cricket played on the same surface in less than two weeks cannot be ideal.

I'm wary of making any firm judgements until we see how it plays, but variable bounce, particularly low bounce, could be a real factor as the match goes on.

It will be interesting to see how it plays in the first couple of days, and I’m not going to stand and argue with those wanting to bet big runs or looking to back players in the milestones markets.

Harry Brook ensured a profitable preview for us last week after Zak Crawley and Saud Shakeel fell within touching distance of hundreds, but bookmakers have cottoned on now and we are looking at backing those picks at around half the price they were last week. With those doubts about the pitch, I’ll be leaving alone this time.

The in-play previews will hopefully provide some stronger opportunities, and I think it’s pretty clear that at this stage I'm keen to keep the majority of my powder dry. My modus operandi last week was runs and milestones betting, and I feel vindicated in that given the big scores we witnessed, but it’s harder to have the same confidence this week.

One thing I do expect, though, is for the bowlers to have more of a say at some stage. Pakistan haven’t opted to use the same pitch to save on labour – and we saw numerous times in the coverage on Sky Sports last week a fine-looking surface earmarked for this game in the latter stages of its preparation. No, this decision has been made to try and help Pakistan force the result needed to get them back into the series. It will likely spin, if not straight away, and low bounce must become a factor at some stage.

England to lean on Leach on Multan

With that in mind, I’ll be backing JACK LEACH in the Man of the Match market, buoyed by his excellent return to the side last week which culminated in him finishing things off in the second innings as he claimed 4-30. He was England’s most successful bowler in the first innings, too, finishing with 3-160 to take his haul for the match to seven wickets.

That was pretty good going on a flat deck, the best of any bowler on either side, and Leach is just ideal for these conditions. The left arm spinner knows his game so well nowadays and generally bowls wicket to wicket, just as he would for his county Somerset. If there is any spin on offer, he’ll be a threat, but otherwise he’ll just plug away all day and eventually get his rewards further down the line.

Leach was a key part of the England side that won 3-0 here in 2022, the only surviving frontline bowler as it happens, and I think Stokes returning as captain this week will offer him a further boost. Leach has long been Stokes’ man, very close friends and the spinner Stokes backed to the hilt when he first became captain until a series of untimely injuries forced England to look elsewhere.

Stokes trusts Leach, so I’d expect him to rely on him heavily this week, and above all else, if this pitch is slow and slow, Leach bowling wicket to wicket and targeting the pads could be a nightmare for the Pakistan batsmen who, rather surprisingly, don’t appear to play spin that well.

• CLICK HERE to back Leach with Sky Bet

To smaller stakes but on the same train of thought, I’ll also be backing SAJID KHAN in the Man of the Match market.

Sajid was Pakistan’s frontline spinner in Australia last winter and while I can’t argue that he is any world beater, he is an experienced operator with a very good First Class record.

His eight Tests so far have yielded 25 wickets, and while Australia proved a very stern examination of skills, he didn’t let anyone down home or away against the best team in the world, actually opening the bowling in the Sydney Test match in January.

An off spinner, Sajid is similar to Leach in that he bowls wicket to wicket, targeting the stumps and pads, and I think he is another who could have conditions to his liking as the match goes on and the pitch hopefully gets slower and lower.

I don’t have much faith in Pakistan, but without Naseem, Sajid could quickly become the main man in the home bowling attack, so it makes sense to have him on side at this stage.

Both picks are very much horses for courses selections, but that appeals as the best way forward for now, on a surface that has been put back to work in the hope Pakistan can use it to somehow force the result a cricketing nation in turmoil so badly needs.

Posted at 1945 BST on 13/10/24

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