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Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v England first Test preview and best bets for Multan
England's cricketers are back in action on Monday, kicking off their tour of Pakistan with the first Test from Multan – Richard Mann provides his preview and best bets.
Cricket betting tips: England v Pakistan
2pts Zak Crawley to make a first innings century at 7/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Harry Brook to make a first innings fifty at 6/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Harry Brook to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Saud Shakeel to make a first innings fifty at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Saud Shakeel to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
When England toured Pakistan in 2022, ZAK CRAWLEY kicked off the series with a breathtaking hundred in Rawalpindi – and the Kent opener is fancied to repeat dose in the first Test in Multan on Monday, 6.00am, UK time.
Crawley scythed and muscled his way to a brilliant 122 from 111 balls two years ago at a time when his position in the team was under intense scrutiny. Now, he returns to Pakistan (and the England team) with his reputation very much enhanced, a pillar of England's batting line-up.
The 26-year-old missed of a chunk of the English summer with a finger injury, but his replacement, Dan Lawrence, struggled badly. With Crawley having looked just about England’s best player on a tough trip to India earlier in the year, his importance to this side has been underlined.
Five half-centuries from eights Tests in 2024 goes some way to confirming that suspicion, and in 2023, Crawley finished the Ashes as England’s leading runscorer in a calendar year in which he averaged 43.28.
Pakistan pitches should suit Crawley
Having been set some devilishly tough assignments in the last couple of years, Crawley would’ve hoped to cash in against West Indies and Sri Lanka at home in the summer, but he can make up for lost time in Pakistan on pitches that were some of the flattest imaginable in 2022.
Exactly the types of wickets we will see in this upcoming series has caused some debate, with the hosts opting not to pick a frontline spinner for the recent home series against Bangladesh, instead asking for plenty of live grass to be left on the surfaces to aid their all-pace attack. However, that didn’t work, with Pakistan slumping to heavy defeats in both matches.
As Bangladesh’s two heavy recent defeats to India have shown, that is hardly strong form, and even though the pitches offered the seamers a little more than we usually see in this country, Pakistan still scored 448-6 declared in the first Test in Rawalpindi, before the tourists replied with 565.
Furthermore, with that strategy backfiring spectacularly, I’m expecting Pakistan to revert to something close to type for this series, wary of England’s own pace attack which is much more effective when able to get the ball moving sideways.
I certainly don’t expect the home team to produce minefields, anyway, and Multan, venue for the first Test, has generally been an excellent place for batting over the years, and more notably in the Pakistan Super League of late.
Batsmen on either side should expect to score plenty of runs throughout the series, and I’ll kick off by backing Crawley to once again make a first innings century in the first Test at 7/1.
Crawley is a fine, attacking opening batsman and England’s decision to back him to the hilt has been proven correct. Watching Lawrence find life so tough in the opening position this summer is further evidence of that, and England will be thrilled to have him back.
Moreover, Crawley is particularly effective when his weakness in the channel on or around off stump isn’t highlighted quite as much. The first morning of a Test match at Lord’s, or in South Africa for instance, there’s no doubt that he will be vulnerable.
But like in Rawalpindi in 2022, or when he took Australia to the sword in excellent batting conditions at Old Trafford last year, Crawley can be close to unstoppable when he clicks on a flat pitch, so strong off his pads and punishing to any width or erring in length.
If 2022 is even close to being replicated, Crawley won’t be tested too much outside off stump and this attack, expected to be led by Shaheen Afridi, tends to naturally bring the ball back into the right-hander’s pads, rather than go away from the bat. That will be right up Crawley’s street, and as for Afridi, I’m not sure he's anywhere near the bowler he was a few years back.
Incidentally, Crawley was 8/1 to start that 2022 series with a century, rewarding followers of these pages with a good winner, before shortening drastically as the series progressed. I can see the same happening again, so want to strike while the iron is hot.
Take the 7/1 is my advice.
Brook brimming with confidence after recent success
Joining him in the staking plan is teammate HARRY BROOK, who ended the English summer in spectacular form as he plundered a hundred and two half-centuries in the last three ODIs against Australia.
Like most people, I’m a huge fan of the young Yorkshireman who really is just about the finest young batsman in world cricket right now.
However, a Test summer against West Indies and Sri Lanka, played on good pitches, yielding only one century and an average of 37.70 wasn’t good enough – particularly given the starts he made across those six matches.
I thought Brook cut a more ruthless figure in the subsequent ODI series, for all I can’t say I’m completely convinced on that score, and it’s surely only a matter of time before we see him produce a career-defining series.
You could argue he did just that in Pakistan in 2022 when plundering 468 runs at an average of 93.60, feasting on these excellent batting pitches and an attack which, just as might well be the case again, didn’t have the tools to worry him.
The question marks surrounding Brook at present are whether he has the hunger to make big, big runs – but surely the likes of Joe Root and Ben Stokes will be in his ear about that – occasionally driving away from his body when his front foot doesn’t come fully across to cover drive the ball outside off stump, and hooking from high to low on quick pitches against very quick bowling.
Regarding the last two points made there, I just don’t think how much Brook moves his feet when cover driving the ball will be a big issue out here. This isn’t England with the Dukes ball. It’s the soft, largely unresponsive Kookaburra which doesn’t swing much after 10 overs, by which point Brook should still have his feet up, batting at number five. As for any possible issue against the short ball, that might not rear its head until Australia next winter.
With all that in mind, I can’t let Brook go unbacked and will split stakes on him to make a first innings fifty and a first innings century at 6/4 and 6/1 respectively, just in case he squanders another promising start.
Solid Shakeel can dominate England again
For Pakistan, I suggest the same strategy – first innings fifty and first innings century – on SAUD SHAKEEL at 7/4 and 6/1.
Shakeel was outstanding against England in 2022, making four fifties in the three matches and finishing with an average of 57.66. Only Babar Azam, marginally, scored more runs for Pakistan in the series.
An incredible first double-century in Test cricket for Saud Shakeel!
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) July 18, 2023
What an innings 🔥#SLvPAK pic.twitter.com/g828WBkZ9B
Two years on, Shakeel has built up his experience, and from 12 Test matches, he now has three hundreds, one of those being a double-hundred, six half-centuries, and a very healthy average of 56.30. For good measure, the most recent of those centuries came in that series with Bangladesh, so his form looks good right now.
I did toy with the idea of putting up Shakeel for top Pakistan batsman, with Babar Azam taking up a big chunk of the book and my feeling that this is generally a pretty average Pakistan side.
The issue is, James Anderson, Ollie Robinson and Mark Wood were all outstanding in 2022 and with none of that trio here this time, England’s own attack could be found wanting if the pitches are very flat.
I certainly think Stokes the captain might struggle to keep the run rate in check should Pakistan bat well and his own seamers struggle for control over a sustained period, which they might.
As such, Pakistan’s own batsmen could prosper, so I’ll stick with the individual milestones and a player who seems likely to enjoy another fruitful series from the middle order.
Posted at 1600 BST on 03/10/24
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