Richard Mann previews England's last Test match of 2024, with three bets nominated for Friday's series finale against New Zealand in Hamilton.
Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England third Test
2pts Matt Henry top New Zealand first innings bowler at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1.5pts Tom Blundell top New Zealand first innings batsman at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt Mitchell Santner top New Zealand first innings batsman at 28/1 (General)
England’s Test team will bid to finish 2024 on a high when the final match of their three-Test series against New Zealand begins at Seddon Park, Hamilton on Friday, 10pm UK time.
Series victory has already been secured following convincing wins in the first two matches, no mean feat when you consider New Zealand came into this series on the back of a remarkable 3-0 win in India just a matter of weeks ago.
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England's players deserve plenty of credit having bounced back superbly from a humbling defeat in Pakistan, not least Harry Brook whose centuries in the first innings of each Test laid the foundations for both victories.
There have been commendable performances from others, too, namely the impressive Brydon Carse and debutant Jacob Bethell who really does look a young player of considerable promise. There is a long way to go, of course, but in time, Bethell could well prove the real deal.
With Bethell, Joe Root, Ollie Pope and Ben Duckett all coming good, England’s batting looks far superior to New Zealand’s, and as such, the tourists deserve to be a shade of odds-on in most places to complete a series clean sweep.
Seddon Park ground guide
The pitches in the first two Tests have followed a similar trend in that despite green surfaces revealing plenty of live grass on day one, they have generally been excellent for batting.
The first day or so has been tricky, especially in that opening session against the new ball, but England have passed 400 twice in the series already, and as I’ve long argued, the pitches in this country tend to hold together well and allow runs to be scored in the third and fourth innings.
When New Zealand beat a second-string South Africa XI on this ground back in February, the Kiwis comfortably chased down 269 for the loss of only three wickets in fourth innings. In fact, that was the highest innings total in the match on a surface that had something for everyone: batsman, seamers and spinners.
What are the best bets?
With all that in mind, both Carse and MATT HENRY, New Zealand’s outstanding attack leader, are worth considering for Man of the Match honours at 12/1 and 16/1 respectively, with the view either man could blow this apart for their team in the first innings.
For Man of the Match purposes, I came closest to striking a bet on Henry who is just a wonderful new-ball bowler, finally stepping out of the shadows of Trent Boult and Tim Southee, and proving himself a world-class operator.
It’s worth noting that in 2024, Henry has picked up 42 Test scalps at an average of 18.61, including three five-wicket hauls, so he looks a rock-solid bet in the top New Zealand first innings bowler market at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook).
I remain a huge fan of the promising Will O’Rourke, but England have really put him under pressure in the series thus far, and with Southee looking a shadow of his former self, Henry is clearly the man to beat.
With the strength of England’s batting highlighted in the first two games, it’s hard to take a strong view on the top England batsman market.
So impressed have I been with Bethell, both he and Ollie Pope were considered in the milestones markets. Pope looks a natural fit at number six, so what England do with their batting order when Jamie Smith returns is anyone’s guess.
For now, I’ll hold fire on a bet, conscious of the fact that England could well find themselves batting first again on a fresh day one pitch that does plenty with the new ball.
In that scenario, the milestones markets would make much less appeal, though I might revisit bets on Bethell and Pope in-play. The red-hot Brook, and of course, Root, are by no means discounted either, for all they are priced up a good deal shorter.
Take on the Kiwi top order
The top New Zealand first innings batsman market is much more appealing for a bet, with so many of the top order struggling and opening the door for the middle or lower order to make an impact.
That was the case in the second Test in Wellington when wicket-keeper TOM BLUNDELL struck a fabulous century (115) in the second innings, his third Test hundred against England from only eight matches as his average against this opposition now nudges sixty.
England still don’t appear to have Blundell worked out, and slotting in at number six looks a nice spot against an England attack that promises to cause early damage to a batting line-up which remains heavily reliant on Kane Williamson.
That man Williamson has played well in this series and is invariably the man to beat in this market, but he dominates the book and for my money, Blundell remains underestimated at 10/1.
Another man who might go under the radar is MITCHELL SANTNER, so add him to the staking plan at 28/1.
I reckon New Zealand will want a spinner in Hamilton, and so they should given how well Santner performed in India when bowling the Kiwis to a famous victory in Pune.
Furthermore, Santner is a very handy batsman with a Test match hundred against England to his name. In fact, his career average of 24.12 is very respectable for a number eight, and he made a fine 67 against Sri Lanka just two Tests ago.
New Zealand have found themselves in early trouble with the bat throughout this series and should that happen again, we could be sitting pretty with two dangerous, experienced operators in the staking plan at big prices.
Posted at 2225 GMT on 10/12/24
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