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Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England second Test preview and best bets
Paul Krishnamurty stands in for Richard Mann to preview the second Test between New Zealand and England, which begins at 10pm UK time on Thursday.
Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England 2nd Test
3pts England to win the second Test at 11/10 (General)
2pts Matt Henry to be top New Zealand 1st inns bowler at 13/5 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt Joe Root to be Man of the Match at 11/1 (Paddy Power)
1.5pts Joe Root to score a 1st innings century at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Harry Brook to score a 1st innings century at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kane Williamson to score a 1st innings century at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
On the bare numbers, the first Test will be recorded as a decisive, even comfortable England victory, but the eight-wicket margin flatters them. Without a spate of missed catches, particularly during Harry Brook’s 171 first innings, the story would have been very different. Consequently, the odds for Thursday’s second test are effectively tied, with both sides widely available to back at 11/10.
That does still slightly surprise me, given that New Zealand are the most consistently under-rated team in world cricket and England are often over-bet. Also, given that England have won five of their six meetings over the past three years, all by clear margins, and the only reverse came by a single run after New Zealand hit a heroic 483 in the third innings. I would price the visitors at odds-on.
Ground guide
Now we return to the scene of that unforgettable 2023 clash. Basin Reserve, Wellington is a ‘result ground’. The only draw among 11 tests there over the past decade was significantly rain-affected. With the current forecast clear, it is hard to see the match last a full five days, although the draw odds could very well shorten from an opening Betfair quote of 10/1 if high totals are again the order of the day.
Among a sample of 42 innings over the past decade, 10 passed 400 including five beyond 500. A total of 450 has been passed twice in the third innings, suggesting this pitch holds up. Last year, however, we saw three totals below 200, so we should wait to see the pitch report before drawing any firm conclusions.
Unless it looks particularly green, or more cloud cover is forecast than currently, I expect plenty of runs. Both sides are well-equipped to grow a decent total into a huge one, because they bat so deep. In the first Test, their respective number 10s were the accomplished batsman Brydon Carse and the capable Tim Southee.
England look superior
Carse produced a man-of-the-match performance, taking 10 wickets, and the emergence of this 29-year-old seems critical to the progress of this transitional side. If England’s form has been patchy this year, it can be legitimately excused by their having to come to terms with life without James Anderson and Stuart Broad.
Whilst both of those legends are irreplaceable, Carse and Gus Atkinson look an effective, high-class pairing, set for long runs in the side. Jacob Bethell’s second innings fifty was another positive. With Ben Stokes declared fit, there is no obvious weakness.
The same can’t be said about New Zealand. Tom Blundell, Tom Latham and even Devon Conway look vulnerable with the bat. Seamer Nathan Smith was very costly on debut. The Black Caps are also in a transitional phase following Trent Boult’s retirement, and appear too reliant on ageing stalwarts Tim Southee and Kane Williamson. They lack depth.
I can’t help but assume the market has overreacted to New Zealand’s stunning 3-0 victory in India. Brilliant as they were, the form came out of nowhere following grim series against Sri Lanka and Australia. On results, and on paper, they are weaker than England, and home advantage is near enough meaningless between these two given the similar conditions.
The tourists are excellent value at odds-against to take an unassailable 2-0 lead.
CLICK HERE to back England to win the Test with Sky Bet
Three batsmen to score first innings tons
All the recent tests at Basin Reserve have produced at least one big century in the first innings. To reiterate, I’m expecting sizeable totals, meaning there is definitely some mileage in building a team of batsmen to make a first innings ton. One winner returns an overall profit. All three bets are with Sky Bet.
JOE ROOT is the standout option at a generous 5/1. He’s hit 12 tons in 53 first innings since the start of 2021, three from 14 this year, and four from 18 against New Zealand throughout his career. Taking those odds every time would have yielded a comfortable profit across each measure and note, Root hit 153 on his last visit to Basin Reserve. Take 11/1 for Man of the Match too, with Paddy Power.
- CLICK HERE to back Root to be man-of-the-match with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Root to score 1st innings century with Sky Bet
The boosted 7/1 about HARRY BROOK also represents clear value. Brook has five tons from 22 first innings in tests, two from his last four, and two from three against New Zealand. The negative is that back-to-back tons are rare but these odds are too big to ignore.
For New Zealand, KANE WILLIAMSON stands out as a potential ton-maker at 8/1. His records are 21 tons from 103 first innings, three from his last 10, and he hit a double-ton on his penultimate Basin Reserve start.
Among the bowlers, 13/5 about MATT HENRY to top the New Zealand first innings list is a must-bet.
Henry has yielded big profits on this market lately, returning seven wins from his last 11 first innings. Three recent appearances at this ground yielded two wins plus a tie. In what will likely boil down to a three-runner race with Southee and William O’Rourke, Henry should be the best part of a point shorter.
In-play strategy
This test looks the ideal scenario for the ‘in play result’ system which I regularly explain on Cricket…Only Bettor. Simply, the plan is to wait for the odds about either side winning to double from their starting point, to return the same. See the example below
(Based on latest Betfair odds)
- New Zealand are 2.1 - place an order to back them for 10 units @ 3.2, returning 32
- England are 2.2 - place an order to back them for 9.5 units @ 3.4, returning 31.7
To land, we need either momentum to switch sharply at any point in the match and/or the draw odds to shorten for starting levels. Sharp switches in momentum are almost a constant in England matches during the Bazball era and, if I’m right about high first innings totals and a pitch that holds up, the draw would shorten considerably from opening odds of 10/1.
As for innings runs bets, try to profit from the strong tails. When either side are five down, the under/over line for the remainder of the innings will probably be around 125. If batting conditions are still reasonable, that and higher bands are worth backing overs.
Posted at 0950 GMT on 04/12/24
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