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Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England first Test preview and best bets
England are back on Test duty on Wednesday night, when they begin a three-match series against New Zealand in Christchurch – Richard Mann has three bets for the opener.
Cricket betting tips: New Zealand v England first Test
1.5pts Tom Blundell top New Zealand first innings batsman at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Matt Henry top New Zealand first innings batsman at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt Gus Atkinson top England first innings batsman at 80/1 (QuinnBet, BetGoodwin)
An exciting spell for Test cricket continues this week as England begin a three-match series against New Zealand in Christchurch at 10pm UK time on Wednesday night, which is of course Thursday morning on the other side of the world.
This series has deservedly been allocated a third Test after the last meeting between the two sides in early 2023 ended in a thrilling 1-1 draw, a fine turnaround for the Kiwis who lost the first match of that series having been hammered 3-0 in England in the previous English summer.
That was at the very beginning of Brendon McCullum’s revolutionary Bazball takeover, but both camps are in a different place as we close in on 2025.
Following a series defeat in Pakistan, McCullum’s honeymoon period appears to be over, with a poor loss to Sri Lanka in the final Test of summer at the Oval another black mark against the batting unit in particular.
New Zealand, despite an apparent changing of the guard, come into this series beautifully placed. Tom Latham’s captaincy reign began with a remarkable 3-0 away win against the mighty India, and in the likes of Rachin Ravindra and Will O'Rourke, the Kiwis have some exciting young talent to apparently take this team forward.
The betting is struggling to split the two sides for the series opener, with the pair generally available in the region of even-money and the draw friendless at 11/1. I don’t disagree with that, though I generally remain hopeful about England’s batting which, to me, does look the stronger top seven, even without the absent Jamie Smith.
Where England might struggle is with the ball when the pitches flatten out. That leads us nicely onto the venue at Hagley Park in Christchurch, and something that I think is relevant all across New Zealand in Test cricket.
Batting could be tough first up
For so long, we have been used to big first innings runs and then a worsening of conditions in the third and fourth innings, but at Hagley Park, don’t be surprised if we see plenty of live grass on a surface that heavily favours the seamers on the first couple of days, before the pitch flattens out later in the game.
When Australia beat New Zealand by three wickets on this ground in March of this year, the hosts were rolled out for 162 in the first innings, but managed 372 in the third innings. Australia posted 256 in their first innings, but then chased down 281 for the loss of seven wickets to win the game.
New Zealand pulled off a successful run chase of 286 against Sri Lanka on this ground in late 2023 after the visitors had made 302 in the third innings. Elsewhere in New Zealand, the aforementioned series between these two teams in early 2023 saw healthy second innings totals almost throughout.
We’ll certainly keep that in mind when it comes to the in-play previews, and I do wonder how important the toss will be on day one and whether both teams, boasting such strong seam attacks, will want to bowl first. It certainly makes betting on the match market at this stage less appealing.
However, I do wonder if batting will be hard work for the respective top orders, especially in the first innings, so I’m keen to fire some darts at big prices in the top team batsman markets.
Blundell can tame England again
I’ll kick off with TOM BLUNDELL for New Zealand, a real street-fighter of a middle order batsman who could be well placed at number six and made a brilliant 138 against this opposition in the first Test in Mount Maunganui in 2023.
That was Blundell’s second Test hundred against England from only six matches, to sit alongside four more fifties, and he now averages an impressive 68.40 against them.
Blundell returned from the India series with a good 63 in the second innings of a recent First Class outing, so all looks set with him, and the 12/1 with Sky Bet is very appealing. In fairness, anything 9/1 or bigger would probably be a bet.
I do want a second stab at this market, though, and will take MATT HENRY over Tim Southee, with 50/1 about the former worth a small interest.
Southee actually top scored with 73 in the first innings of the second Test against England in 2023, so isn’t easily passed over, but Henry is the batter batsman and has four Test fifties to his name from only 27 matches.
Henry twice went close to winning this market against Australia last winter and of those four Test half-centuries mentioned, three were scored on this very ground – two against strong pace attacks from Australia and South Africa.
That’s enough to seal the deal for me, with the suspicion this market will be won by the lower order at some stage in the series, particularly in the first innings. The general 50/1 is fair enough.
The England market is harder to weigh up. From number seven, Smith was in my mind for this tour ever since making his debut in the summer, so his absence and the poor form shown by Ben Stokes in that Pakistan series defeat makes things tricky.
Harry Brook averaged 82.25 on the tour here in 2023 and could be ideally placed at number five, while Chris Woakes is a dangerous batsman who has won this market plenty of times before and does catch the eye at 28/1.
Three names there I could easily side with, then, without coming down firmly in any direction.
Chance Atkinson at big prices
As such, I’ll try very small stakes on GUS ATKINSON, who has enjoyed quite the start to his international career, particularly in this format, and made a sparkling hundred at Lord’s in the summer.
Atkinson can clearly bat, and as I argued here, he could be invaluable for this team going forward with both ball and bat, particularly if he can keep improving his batting and make regular runs from number eight.
No doubt he and the England management will be well aware of that, so I’ll throw a few quid at him at 80/1.
Posted at 1615 GMT on 25/11/24
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