India and England kick off a five-match Test series in Hyderabad on Thursday morning – check out Richard Mann's series betting preview here.
Cricket betting tips: India v England Test series
3pts Joe Root top England series batsman at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
The first inclination for most punters is to seek out wrong prices, or as racing folk would say, the value. It certainly rings true for cricket betting and that's why I often avoid the top of the market. There's nothing wrong with betting favourites or short prices, if they are wrong prices, but it’s not something that suits the way I bet successfully, so I’m generally happy playing at bigger odds.
Occasionally, however, it’s hard to get away from the top of the market and as England prepare for what is expected to be the sternest examination of ‘Bazball’ yet, a five-Test series in India, JOE ROOT is impossible to ignore in the top England series batsman market at 23/10.
Root is England’s best batsman in all conditions, over 11,000 Test runs at an average 50.29 is clear illustration of that, but that average rises to 63.15 against India. In India, Root averages 51.12, despite facing largely tough batting conditions when England last toured these shores in 2021. Root has scored nine hundreds and 10 fifties against India in this format in 25 matches.
Root to stand stall in trial by spin
England fans know only too well about Root’s quality at home against the moving ball, but his play against spin is outstanding, and I’d go as far as to say he’s just about the best player of spin in the world at present. The likes of Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, in opposition in the coming weeks, might have something to say about that, Kane Williamson, too, but Root is certainly in that bracket.
A brilliant sweeper, Root has a good mind and pristine footwork. He uses his crease so well, off front and back foot, and his soft hands are often more akin to surgeon than cricketer. Those hands make for a fine defence, the foundations of most successful overseas batsmen in India. For good measure, Root averages 65.50 in Sri Lanka, and in the U.A.E that number is 57.40.
And a trial by spin is exactly what England can expect across the upcoming five Tests. Having won the first Test on a flat pitch in Chennai in the corresponding series in 2021, England were then subjected to a series of surfaces that spun from day one and offered plenty of variable bounce. It was desperately hard work and England couldn’t cope. By the conclusion of the series, they were shot to pieces and finished up being rolled out for 205 and 135 in Ahmedabad.
Australia were greeted to similar pitches when they fought hard for a 2-1 series defeat here last spring, though they countered that by flooding their own XI with spinners. While not having the same depth of quality as India in that department, Australia were brought into the game because their spinners received so much help from the pitches. It was something of a leveller, with Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja needing nothing like that level of assistance to take wickets at home.
England spinners face huge challenge
England’s issue is that they don’t have a Nathan Lyon to lead their spin attack, and Todd Murphy and Matt Kuhnemann did an excellent job in support for Australia where the likes of Jack Leach, Rehan Ahmed and Tom Hartley don’t inspire the same level of confidence.
By the end of that series, Ahmedabad served up a flat pitch for the finale which produced the draw India needed to win the series, but that was down to the respect Lyon and co had earned in the previous three games, and I’m not convinced England’s spinners will be able to do the same.
As such, India seem sure to demand spinning pitches from the off. Rohit said as much after India’s recent Test series in South Africa where the pitch for the second Test at Newlands was heavily criticised for being too sporting in favour of the quick bowlers. The Test didn’t make the third day but Rohit was unperturbed, insisting he didn’t mind bowler-friendly pitches, just as long as that extended to spinning tracks in India, and not just green seamers elsewhere.
He had a point and his comments were surely a pointer as to what awaits England in India. Given the success of ‘Bazball’ and its aggressive approach essentially being built around scoring quickly on flat pitches, India would be ill-advised to play into their opponents' hands. To that end, it seems safe to assume conditions for batting will be challenging, they usually are when facing Ashwin and Jadeja on their home turf anyway, and only the best will survive and succeed.
Ghosts of 2021 haunt Crawley and Pope
In the aforementioned series in 2021, Root’s 368 runs across the series easily beat Ben Stokes, who was next best with 203. Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, who are both now established members of England’s top six, struggled and neither averaged twenty or more.
Both appear to be better players now, but I’m not fully connived by either against spin, and with Stokes still recovering from knee surgery and no certainty to play the full series, and Brook now sadly out of the picture, only Ben Duckett looms as any sort of danger to Root.
Duckett is a fine player of spin who, like Root, sweeps well either side of the wicket, but he’s also a left-hander and Ashwin generally eats those for breakfast.
I just can’t see past Root across five games, and the 23/10 available with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook is must-bet material. He’s much closer to a 6/4 shot in my book.
Rohit to lead the way for India
It's disappointing that the India player markets are at the time of writing in much shorter supply, but Rohit would be my pick from the home line-up, with Kohli now ruled out of the first two matches due to personal reasons.
Rohit won this market in the 2021 series with 345 runs at 57.50, and his strong form at the recent World Cup suggests he remains as good as ever. If the pitches are challenging, he’ll look to make hay against the new ball and with a good head start on Kohli, he could take some stopping.
Root and Rohit are two of the outstanding batsmen of this generation. Rohit remains underrated in my eyes, Root less so, but I expect both to lead the way in a series that will prove the ultimate test for Stokes' fearless England team.
It should make for fun viewing, but make no mistake, England will need and expect big runs from Root. Nothing less will do.
Preview published at 1230 GMT on 22/01/24
ALSO READ: Richard Mann's first Test preview
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