Cricket betting tips: ICC T20 World Cup specials preview and best bets
Richard Mann selects his best bets from the specials markets for the ICC T20 World Cup which starts this weekend.
Cricket betting tips: ICC T20 World Cup specials
1pt Phil Salt top tournament runscorer at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mohammad Rizwan top tournament runscorer at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Andre Russell player of the tournament at 33/1 (General)
2pts Naveen-ul-Haq top Afghanistan tournament wicket-taker at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Craig Young top Ireland tournament wicket-taker at 7/1 (General)
2pts Glenn Phillips top New Zealand tournament runscorer at 9/1 (General)
One of the best things about another World Cup year (cricket really doesn’t know the meaning of overkill, does it?) is the amount of side markets priced up, and by most firms. It ought to be like this far more often, but unfortunately so much choice seems to be the exception, not the norm.
With that in mind, I’ll make myself look silly by starting with a market always priced up – top tournament batsman.
Recent history tells us that you need someone batting in the top three to win this market, though being an opener is by no means essential and in the last four editions of the tournament, Virat Kohli has been leading runscorer from number three twice, with Babar Azam from the same batting position in the UAE in 2021.
Off the back of a stellar IPL season, Kohli heads the betting again at 13/2 and there is little doubt he is right back to his best, while the likes of Jos Buttler, Travis Head and Babar again are all highly likely to have their supporters.
Special Salt coming of age
Further down the list, I’m keen on the claims of Englishman PHIL SALT.
The Lancashire opening batsman was outstanding when England toured the Caribbean in late 2023, blasting two centuries in the five-match T20I series and finishing with an average of 82.75.
It came as no surprise, then, that England captain Buttler heaped praise on Salt last week for the development in his game, chiefly his ability to more consistently turn fast starts into big scores.
That was evident on that tour and more recently at this year's IPL, Salt starring for Kolkata Knight Riders with 435 runs at an impressive strike-rate of 182.00.
Salt has always promised much but at 27 years of age, he now looks much closer to the finished article.
Having come round to England a little in recent days, in the main because of an exciting batting line-up led by Salt, a deep run from the defending champions is expected, so 16/1 (Sky Bet) about England’s top order maverick looks well worth an investment.
At 25/1, I do want to add MOHAMMAD RIZWAN to the staking plan, another opening batsman whose record in ICC events is, as expected, very strong.
At last year’s 50-over World Cup in India, Rizwan finished as Pakistan leading runscorer, with 395 runs at 65.83, and going back to the T20 World Cup in the UAE in 2021, he scored 281 runs at 70.25 from his customary position in this format at the top of the order.
In all formats and all conditions, Rizwan is just a class act and it’s remarkable to think that after playing almost hundred T20Is, his average is very close to fifty.
His insatiable appetite for making big runs really does set him apart and while his strike-rate can sometimes let his team down, that matters little for those betting him in top batsman markets.
He will open the innings, with Babar batting at three, so I can certainly make the case for Rizwan leading the way for Pakistan and while I’m not crazy on their chances of winning the tournament, they are always dangerous and capable of finishing in the mix.
Whatever happens, it’s fair to assume that Rizwan will be central to Pakistan’s hopes and I can’t resist a spin at the current prices.
Jasprit Bumrah is the correct favourite in the top tournament bowler market, but he looks awfully short at 8/1 best price when you consider how good he was at the recent IPL without finishing top of the class.
Most teams are now wise to the fact that Bumrah is India’s key bowling weapon, similarly for Mumbai Indians in the IPL, and are thus happy to limit the damage when he is bowling.
As such, I was keen to find an alternative to Bumrah. However, with a few big names coming back from injury – Jofra Archer the most high profile – landing on anyone strongly wasn’t easy and the closest I came to striking a bet was on Bumrah’s India teammate, Kuldeep Yadav.
The left-arm wrist spinner enjoyed a fine 50-over World Cup last year, claiming 15 wickets, though he still trailed Bumrah by five at the tournament’s end, and both impressed in the Test series win over England that preceded the IPL.
I certainly think Kuldeep is a live player here, but Ravi Jadeja is a lock in India's starting XI and with Yuzi Chahal rightly recalled to the squad, the tournament favourites will have a job fitting three spinners into their line-up.
That could leave someone vulnerable, so I’ll sit this one out, instead resolving to keep a close eye on Kuldeep on a match-by-match basis.
Russell can light up home World Cup
I won’t be taking the same approach with ANDRE RUSSELL, who is backed to be player of the tournament at 33/1.
I’ve already nailed my colours to the West Indies mast in my outright preview here and you can’t get away from the fact that in order for the hosts to go close to winning their third T20 World Cup, they will need a big tournament from Russell, very much their talisman in this format.
And the omens are good. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Russell in better shape, both physically and mentally. He looks fit, strong and leaner than we've seen in a long time.
He’s made no secret of the fact that this World Cup, a home one for the Jamaican, has been a long-term target of his for a while now and he has clearly prepared well.
He was outstanding at the recent IPL, making runs in the middle order and striking at 185.00, while he finished with 19 wickets having done plenty of bowling at the death in a tournament that was generally a graveyard for seamers in the slog overs.
His fielding, not a facet of his game we usually notice too much, was outstanding as he threw himself about like a man on a mission.
It was mission complete when KKR surged to IPL title glory, Russell claiming three wickets in the final, and it strikes me that this is man desperate to make the final years of his career count, particularly on the big stage.
The IPL is obviously that, but a home World Cup in which his side has a realistic chance of contending might be even more important to Russell and I expect him to come out firing in the next few weeks.
Clearly, this is an award that could be won by just about anyone, but if you’re a West Indies supporter this year, as I am, then taking a big price about one of their most important players, their premier all-rounder no less, makes sense.
Naveen the value call for Afghanistan
After plenty of whittling down, I’ve come down on three in the individual team markets, kicking off with NAVEEN-UL-HAQ to be Afghanistan’s top tournament bowler.
Afghanistan boast a dangerous attack, led by leg spinner Rashid Khan who always dominates the betting for this market, but teams both in international and franchise cricket have become wise to his threat, often proving happy to sit on him and look to take risks elsewhere.
That generally provides opportunities for the rest of the bowling attack and though Rashid was Afghanistan’s leading wicket-taker at the 50-over World Cup last year, Naveen finished with a better strike-rate, as he did at the T20 World Cup of 2022.
In this format, with fewer overs available, strike-rate counts for everything.
An absolute peach by Naveen-ul-Haq 😍 #Blast23 pic.twitter.com/knjj3dOaoo
— Vitality Blast (@VitalityBlast) June 6, 2023
And at the recent IPL, Naveen again impressed, claiming 14 wickets for Lucknow Super Giants at a strike-rate of 15.64. Rashid took 10 wickets for Gujarat Titans, with a strike-rate of 26.20.
Crucially, it’s easy to argue that Naveen is still improving with experience, as his numbers in 2024 would suggest: 11 wickets from 8 T20Is at 22.90, with a strike-rate of 15.1.
Another name to note is Fazalhaq Farooqi, but unlike Naveen, he hasn’t been quite as good in the last 18-24 months, and I really like the fact Naveen is coming into this tournament on the back of a strong showing at the IPL.
Naveen rates a very good value alternative to Rashid and is worth backing at 4/1.
Another bowler I’m keen on is CRAIG YOUNG and he gets the vote for top Ireland tournament wicket-taker at 7/1.
Josh Little and Mark Adair are the headline acts here, but I’ve been really impressed with what I’ve seen from Young in the last year or so.
I thought he was very good in a ODI series against England last summer and he has picked up five wickets in two recent T20 World Cup warm-up matches.
To my mind, he’s the type of bowler who will bowl well on these pitches, attacking the stumps at decent pace in the middle to late overs.
Furthermore, his supporters will be heartened to learn that in ODIs, Young has 10 wickets from four appearances in the West Indies at an average of 19.80. Adair, on the other hand, has a dreadful record on these shores.
With Little priced up around the 5/2 mark, I’m happy to chance Young at the current prices in the hope he can continue to impress just as he has done for a while now.
Phillips top of the class for Kiwis
I’ve scoured the top team batsman markets without a great deal of joy, but can’t let GLENN PHILLIPS go unbacked at 9/1 to be New Zealand’s top tournament runscorer.
The return to fitness of captain Kane Williamson means Phillips will likely have to bat in the middle order, but for my money he is by some distance the best T20 batsman the Kiwis have in their ranks and they would be crazy not to maximise his talents.
In eight T20Is in 2024, Phillips is averaging close to fifty, while he has continued to make big strides in 50-over and Test cricket.
A hard hitter who plays spin really well, Phillips has all the tools to do well in Caribbean conditions and regardless of his batting position, I’m happy to back him at three times the price of Williamson and twice the price of Daryl Mitchell.
In the last T20 World Cup in Australia, Phillips finished the tournament as New Zealand’s leading runscorer, despite the presence of Williamson, Mitchell and Devon Conway.
I’d argue he’s an even better player now and all things considered, 9/1 for Phillips looks well worth a spin.
Preview published at 1255 BST on 30/05/24
Related links
- Click here for Sky Bet's cricket odds
- Richard Mann's T20 World Cup outright preview
- Richard Mann's T20 World Cup specials preview
- Paul Krishnamurty's guide to the T20 World Cup grounds
- Paul Krishnamurty's T20 cricket betting masterclass
- Paul Krishnamurty's Test cricket betting masterclass
- Paul Krishnamurty's ODI cricket betting masterclass
- Latest Cricket Only Bettor IPL Podcast
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