India and New Zealand will contest the ICC Champions Trophy final in Dubai on Sunday morning – check out Richard Mann's preview and recommended bets here.
Cricket betting tips: ICC Champions Trophy final
3pts New Zealand first 15 overs score under 72.5 runs at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pt Kane Williamson top New Zealand batsman at 10/3 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt KL Rahul top India batsman at 10/1 (General)
India v New Zealand
- When: 09:00, Sunday
- Where: Dubai
- How to watch: Sky Sports Cricket
India have so far lived up to their billing as strong pre-tournament favourites for the Champions Trophy, and are currently best price 2/5 to finish the job in Sunday’s final against New Zealand.
As has been well-documented, the final will take place in Dubai (9:00am, UK time), venue for all of India’s matches at this tournament owing to their refusal to travel to Pakistan.
It has clearly been a huge advantage to India. Playing on a series of worn pitches that are tired from the preceding ILT20 and packing their squad full of spin, safe in the knowledge they didn’t need to select for elsewhere, has made life much easier.
Tough work for batting in Dubai
Life hasn’t been especially easy for batting in Dubai, but I thought India did very well to chase down 265 against Australia in the semi-finals, despite losing six wickets.
In their previous match, India rallied to 249-9 batting first against New Zealand. In reply, the Kiwis were bowled out for only 205 as nine of the 10 wickers fell to spin. It was tough going.
That match, played between Sunday’s two finalists exactly a week ago, does leave New Zealand with a mountain to climb, and the fact they eventually went down by 44 runs having done so much right on the day makes one wonder just what they can do in order to turn the tables.
The Kiwis turned in an outstanding performance in the field that day, bowling brilliantly to claim three wickets in the powerplay, and backing it up with a fine fielding display. But India’s strong and deep batting line-up was still able to get to a competitive total.
And from there, the spinners assumed control, despite New Zealand appearing well placed when 93-2 in reply. In these conditions, Varun Chakravarthy, who took 5-42 against the Kiwis, Kuldeep Yadav and Ravi Jadeja make for a formidable combination.
Another trial by spin awaits the Kiwis.
What are the best bets?
Not for the first time, when conditions were testing, particularly in terms of spin, KANE WILLIAMSON was the standout, and his 81 from 120 balls was a masterclass in how to play high-class spin bowling on a turning pitch.
Having backed that up with a wonderful hundred in New Zealand’s relatively comfortable semi-final defeat of South Africa on Wednesday, the 34-year-old has clearly found his groove following rare failures in the facile wins over Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Williamson has a fine career record against India, averaging 45.48 against this opposition in ODI cricket, and he looks best-equipped to cope with the task ahead. Back him to be top New Zealand batsman at 10/3.
Barring that defeat, New Zealand haven’t put a foot wrong. They were always in command against Pakistan, recovered from an early wobble with the bat against Bangladesh, and then proved they have the tools to win an arm wrestle by blasting 362 against South Africa in Lahore.
Don’t expect scores anything close to that on Sunday, with India’s 267-6 against Australia easily the highest total of the tournament in Dubai so far.
However, perhaps the most telling statistic from the last couple of weeks is that across a variety of venues, and in matches where they have been generally on top, New Zealand’s best score in the first 15 overs was 87-1 against South Africa on a typically flat pitch in Lahore.
Prior to that, they posted 71-2 against Pakistan, exactly the same score against Bangladesh, and only 55-2 against India on this ground last week.
Up against the best bowling attack in the competition on the worst ground for runscoring, I don’t expect New Zealand to get off to a flyer, not with the likes of Will Young and Williamson, excellent players though they are, expected to stick to their tried and tested method of laying a solid platform for the power hitters down the order.
As such, I like the look of backing NEW ZEALAND 15 OVERS TOTAL UNDER 72.5 RUNS at 5/6.
Reliable Rahul can shine on the big stage
Finally, I want to chance my arm on KL RAHUL in the top India batsman market at 10/1.
I’ve always been a huge fan of Rahul who remains criminality underrated, and many forget that he was topscorer for India in the 2023 World Cup final when making a battling 66.
He’s had to play a supporting role in this tournament, so dominant have India been, but he has still contributed with scores of 41*, 23 and 42*, looking in excellent touch throughout.
If New Zealand can take early wickets again, Rahul might just be able to repeat the dose in another final. The current odds are hard to ignore.
Ultimately, India would appear to hold all the cards here, to steal a line from the incompetent oaf in the White House, but that appeared to be the case in that 2023 World Cup, before Australia put them in their place in the final.
There will be similar pressure on India this time, especially with all the chatter around the integrity of the competition and the advantage they been handed. India are expected to win, and they will know it.
Readers of the pre-tournament preview are with New Zealand outright already, having been advised at 8/1, but with to reach the final winnings already banked, I have no interest in reloading, not with the suspicion that whatever the circumstances, India should prove very hard to stop.
Posted at 1245 GMT on 07/03/25
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