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Cricket betting tips: England v Sri Lanka second Test preview and best bets for Lord's
Hot from a 7/1 winner last week, Richard Mann is back to preview the second Test between England and Sri Lanka which begins on Thursday at Lord's.
Cricket betting tips: England v Sri Lanka
2pts Dinesh Chandimal top Sri Lanka first innings batsman at 11/2 (General)
2pts Olly Stone top England first innings bowler at 4/1 (Star Sports)
1pt Jamie Smith to make a first innings century at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Harry Brook to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Horse racing punters will be familiar with the term cliff horse, and the old saying is in danger of pulling me under as I prepare to give DINESH CHANDIMAL another go in Thursday’s second Test at Lord’s.
I expected big things from Chandimal in last week’s first Test at Old Trafford and feel somewhat vindicated by his performances there, a solid start (18) in the first innings cut short by a ball that barely bounced above ankle height, before he added a typically determined 79 in the second innings, only to be outdone by a hundred from Kamindu Mendis.
Almost all of what I said about Chandimal in last week’s preview remains true. A brilliant 126 at Durham in 2016, which came against James Anderson and Stuart Broad, confirmed he has the game for these conditions, as does a fine record in New Zealand, and on the whole, he played really well in Manchester.
Furthermore, the middle order again feels like the best place to bat this summer, as demonstrated by hundreds from Mendis and Jamie Smith – the latter a 7/1 winner for these pages – along with runs for Joe Root and Angelo Mathews.
I thought Chandimal played the situation expertly in both innings. In the first dig he came in at 6-3 and steadied the ship until the pitch and a dose of bad luck ended his resistance, while second time around both he and the aforementioned Mendis took the game to England after he had earlier been forced to retire hurt following a nasty blow to the thumb.
Chandimal is a gritty character who has proven over his 80-Test career that he can change gears when needed, something that is so often crucial at Lord’s when the ball tends to seam and swing around early, but generally gets better for batting if the sun beats down on the surface for long enough.
At the time of writing, that is expected to be the case again with a clear and warm forecast for the Home of Cricket. As always, the new ball will be hard work for batting, particularly on days one and two, but if good weather prevails, things will get easier for the middle order.
All pointers would suggest Chandimal is set to show up well again and while Mendis, Mathews and skipper Dhananjaya de Silva all impressed in Manchester, Chandimal remains rock-solid and gets the vote once more in the top Sri Lanka first innings batsman market at 11/2.
Smith set to shine again
Sticking with the middle order theme, I’m more than happy to keep with JAMIE SMITH to make a first innings century, with HARRY BROOK also making the cut.
I’ve made no secret of my admiration for Smith for a while now. Very close to a clone of Kevin Pietersen, though evidently far more level-headed, Smith looks made for international cricket and after only four Tests, he already has two fifties, a century, and an average nudging 60.
It makes for impressive reading and more than that, it’s sometimes about what the eye tells us. If there’s a glaring weakness in Smith's game, I’m yet to see it, and his temperament looks rock-solid: calm under pressure, brave and daring enough to flick the switch when the situation requires. It’s why he looks such a natural when batting with the tail.
And this brings me back to my middle-order theory. In last summer’s Ashes Test match here, the two hundreds scored were by Steve Smith from number four and Ben Stokes from number six. Number fives Harry Brook and Travis Head both made half-centuries. In 2022, Kiwis Daryl Mitchell and Tom Blundell made 106 and 96 respectively on this ground.
That’s just another reason why I’m happy to bet Smith to register back-to-back Test tons, with his promotion to number six for this series looking the ideal spot from which he can make his mark – protected from the new ball but still likely to have enough time to influence the game.
The 7/1 with Sky Bet is again worth snapping up.
Can Brook convert at Lord's
Though clearly a high-class player in the making, if not already one, Brook might be slightly harder to weigh up.
In his six Test innings so far this summer, Brook does have a century to his name, a brilliant one against West Indies at Trent Bridge, but has also failed to convert some good starts – namely when making scores of 50, 36, 56 and 32.
Often, it all looks too easy for Brook, and we can be forgiven for thinking carelessness has been the cause of his downfall when as was the case last week, a very good piece of bowling stopped him in his tracks in the first innings having cruised to 56.
Five Test hundreds in 16 games doesn’t suggest this is a man with a conversion problem, and for all the reasons listed above, I’m keen to back England’s number five to make a first innings century at 6/1.
England's Rolling Stone is back
The final bet on the staking plan is OLLY STONE in the top England first innings bowler market at 4/1.
Stone is another who I am a big fan of. Tall and quick, he has a lovely, simple action that would’ve surely been enjoyed much more in Test cricket were it not for a spate of injuries that have so far held back a promising international career.
Stone is once again working his way back to his best and I thought he was very good for London Spirit in this summer’s edition of The Hundred, delivering some fiery spells for a franchise that generally struggled.
Crucially, Stone played his home games at Lord’s and in three successive games on this ground, returned figures of 2-14, 1-10 and 1-24. Things didn’t go to plan in one subsequent County Championship outing, but I’m hoping getting through 20 overs with the red ball against Durham will have brought him on plenty.
We shouldn’t forget that Stone has played three Tests already, such is the regard in which he has long been held, and 10 wickets at 19.40 – four of those scalps coming in India of all places – only highlights what huge potential the now 30-year-old still has.
England clearly haven’t given up hope, surely with one eye on next year’s Ashes series in Australia, and I haven’t either. I’ll back Stone to make an instant impression on his return.
It's worth noting that this bet is advised with firms settling the top bowler market on dead heat rules. Given the form of Chris Woakes and Gus Atkinson, this could easily result in a two- or three-way tie and in that case, I’m not sure I’d back Stone to have conceded the fewest runs. I’d prefer the insurance of dead heat rules on this occasion.
And with that, the staking plan is complete, though Lord’s is a terrific ground for in-running betting, so expect plenty more in the daily in-play previews.
Posted at 2050 BST on 26/08/24
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