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Cricket betting tips: England v Australia Ashes series preview and best bets
Richard Mann sets the scene for one of the most anticipated Ashes series in years – check out his outright preview which features five recommended bets.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, England v Australia
3pts Ollie Robinson top England series bowler at 5/2 (BoyleSports)
3pts Pat Cummins top overall series bowler at 9/2 (General)
3pts Steve Smith top overall series batsman at 3/1 (Betway)
1pt Ben Stokes top England series batsman at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt 2-2 series correct score at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sporting Life RequestABet
33/1 - Smith top series bat, Cummins top series bowler, 1+ drawn Test
Throughout the history of cricket, the Ashes has always been the most significant series in the sport, something that is still true today in an era dominated by T20. Its rich history and glowing prestige is something that franchise cricket can’t buy and is unlikely to ever truly nurture. Many of the game’s most memorable moments have come in Ashes cricket; time and again it has delivered, even when an apparent imbalance on paper has been revealed on the pitch. Then there are those Ashes series which take on an even higher meaning, those between two mighty teams at the peak of their powers; those between teams who have different ways of reaching greatness but reach it all the same. Old enemies with new methods and no certainty of outcome. This is one such series.
Australia were much the best in the 2021/2022 meeting Down Under, just as they were when winning by the same 4-0 scoreline in the 2017/2018 series also at home, but sandwiched between those meetings was the 2-2 drawn series in England in 2019, one which was lit up by Ben Stokes’ miracle at Headingley. Nevertheless, it’s fair to say that Australia have had the better of things more recently, and that’s what makes this summer such an exciting prospect.
World champions set to clash with reborn England
The coming weeks will pit the confirmed best side in the world, the World Test champions no less, against a team that has swept all before them in a year which has seen them play an attacking, exhilarating brand of cricket which has not only captured the imagination of the watching public, but has also yielded impressive results. Australia will rightly point to the fact they have dominated recent renewals, but make no mistake, this is a very different England side from the one that folded so tamely when they met less than two years ago.
The Ashes wouldn’t be the Ashes without the fog of war, and Stuart Broad has already done his best to ruffle a few Australian feathers, but from a betting point of view it’s vital to cut through the noise, make full use of your research and trust your instincts. With that in mind, my thoughts have barely changed since England drew in New Zealand in the winter, nor too the direction in which I’m leaning with my staking plan.
The fundamental reason why there is so much anticipation around this series is because we have two high-class teams who, on the face of it, appear very evenly matched. Their style of cricket will differ, Australia likely to take a more traditional approach with the bat than England’s Bazball ethos which is built on attack. Australia look to have the edge in terms of pace and spin, but England will fancy the battery of seam and swing bowlers they have in reserve may prove decisive at the end of a series which has been crammed into such a short window. When you put all those factors together, this has the potential to be a very closely-run affair.
As always, Australia will be banking on big runs from Steve Smith – who made 774 runs at an average of 110.54 in four Tests here in 2019 – and Marnus Labuschagne, who comes into this series on the back of two County Championship hundreds for Glamorgan. David Warner doesn’t quite look the force of old, but Usman Khawaja has been reborn as an opening batsman and Travis Head’s match-winning century in the World Test Championship final only continued the outstanding last 12 months he has enjoyed. With Head likely to provide the fireworks, Smith and Labuschagne the experience and stability, and Cameron Green power at number six, this is a formidable batting line-up.
England have that as well, though while Australia displayed a willingness to fight through some particularly tough periods on the first morning of that Test Championship final against India, we have seen England struggle in similarly favourable bowling conditions – think the first innings at Lord’s against New Zealand and the first innings against South Africa at the Oval last summer, when bowled out cheaply on both occasions.
To that end, I do think conditions will play a huge part in the outcome of the series. If the pitches are as flat as Stokes has requested, and the sun shines, I think England will score enough runs to hurt Australia, even against such a strong pace attack. In Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes and Jonny Bairstow, they have a powerful middle order that pulled off a host of remarkable run chases against New Zealand and then India last summer. They played with no fear, encouraged by an ultra-positive management team, and have vowed not to change for anything, not even the Ashes.
They will score quickly, too, and having so many right-handers in the top seven ought to put Australia’s off spinner, Nathan Lyon, under considerable pressure. Lyon is vastly experienced but Stokes and Ben Duckett, England’s two left-handers, are both excellent players of spin, as are their right-handed colleagues who have been liberated since Brendon McCullum took over as head coach and are sure to attack spin throughout.
Where England could come unstuck is if the weather turns and they are faced with batting in tough conditions. Australia’s seam bowling is outstanding, led by Pat Cummins and featuring the likes of Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland, Mitchell Starc and Green. They made relatively light work of India at the Oval last week and if they have anything in their favour in terms of conditions, I’m not sure England’s batting unit – Root and Stokes apart – have the technique and skill to overcome that attack. A heavyweight fight on a flat pitch would suit England’s batting best, less so a game of chess on a green seamer.
That might seem like an odd thing to say when England boast such a high quality seam attack themselves, and I’m sure James Anderson, Ollie Robinson and Stuart Broad would like to see plenty of grass on the pitches. But this is a team game and that batting line-up remains vulnerable when the ball does plenty – we saw that again at Headingley a year ago when Trent Boult ripped through the top order. Not only that, England’s seamers have proven their worth on flat pitches, demonstrated best in the series victory in Pakistan over the winter. If Mark Wood stays fit, they also have variety in their attack in the form of the fastest bowler on either side.
It's impossible to predict the summer’s weather this far out, but I can see this proving to be a series of contrasting fortunes that swings one way and then the other. As good as Australia are with the ball, there will be times when England’s batting clicks and hurts them badly. It’s what Stokes did at Headingley four years ago, and he has more support now. But five Tests is a long time and Australia’s seamers will have their days in the sun, or rather under grey clouds.
England’s style of play screams unpredictability and for all they have enjoyed much success since Stokes became captain, so many of those wins came in matches in which they were on the back foot and needed to be bold, brave and occasionally fortunate to prevail. Against such strong opponents, don’t be surprised if they lose heavily one week and then bulldoze Australia the next. England lost by an innings to South Africa at Lord’s last summer but as good as that opposition pace attack was, Stokes’ side hit back hard to win the next two matches in equally convincing fashion.
When you bring it all together, I still don’t think there will be much between the two teams at the end of the series, but some one-sided matches in between wouldn’t at all surprise. I can certainly see the Ashes ending in a draw, with 2-2 the most likely outcome, given Stokes’ conviction to push for results wherever possible. It does take two to tango, however, and a drawn series would see Australia regain the Ashes on top of being World Test champions. One suspects they might take that, and I’m happy to back the 2-2 CORRECT SCORELINE at 5/1.
Plenty of juice in Robinson price
The series side-markets look more straightforward, with OLLIE ROBINSON the obvious starting point to finish the series as England’s leading wicket-taker.
In the absence of Jack Leach – and don’t discount the possibility of the returning Moeen Ali not making it past the first couple of games – finding an England bowler who is likely to play the whole series isn’t easy. I don’t expect Robinson to do so, but he will be an automatic pick for Edgbaston and Lord’s, and will be needed at Old Trafford and the Oval where tall seamers are always so effective.
Perhaps, then, he’ll get a breather in the middle Test at Headingley, but I envisage him bowling as many, if not more overs as Anderson – barring injury – and I certainly think he’ll play more games than Broad and Wood. In the case of Anderson and Broad, they are considerably older than Robinson and have been making noises about rest and rotation in recent weeks. Wood’s injury record and the need for him to be fresh for the final two matches on the quickest two pitches in the country – Old Trafford and the Oval – means he is unlikely to be overdone early in the series.
All the above are positives for anyone wanting to take the 5/2 available (Boylesports) about the Sussex seamer in the top England series bowler market, and that’s before we consider what a wonderful bowler Robinson is. Sixty-six wickets in his first 16 Tests illustrates that, and his average of 21.27 puts him up there with many past champions at a similar stage of their careers. The four left-handers in the Australia top seven is another tick in Robinson’s box, given how well he bowls at lefties, and we saw a couple of winters ago how much he revelled in the Ashes cauldron.
The only thing holding Robinson back there was his fitness, but he has worked incredibly hard since and will start the series full of confidence having claimed 14 wickets in a County Championship match against Worcestershire and then five more against Glamorgan. Missing the Ireland Test as a precaution due to ankle discomfort was probably a blessing in disguise, and all reports are that he has been bowling well ahead of Friday's series opener.
Beating Anderson in this market is never easy, but he’s done it in his young career already, and the likelihood of him playing a Test more than his older bowling partner makes this bet a confident one. Anything north of 2/1 looks very fair, with 5/2 well worth snapping up.
Cummins can finish top of the class again
With Anderson and Robinson not expected to play all five games, and my expectation that England are set up well to nullify Lyon’s off spin threat, it makes perfect sense to back PAT CUMMINS to be the top overall series bowler at 9/2.
Cummins landed this same bet in 2019 when taking 29 wickets in five matches, and again in the 2021/2022 series when claiming 21 scalps despite having to miss a match because of a positive Covid-19 test.
Having got better and better against India last week, he should be cherry ripe for Edgbaston and beyond. Cummins actually bowled much better than four wickets in that final would suggest, but he had numerous chances dropped off his bowling and two wickets ruled out because of no-balls in the first innings. While frustrating, the no-ball issue isn't something Cummins has generally been guilty of in the past and I'd be amazed if he couldn't iron that out in practice this week.
The New South Wales quick is still just about the best bowler in world cricket, though Anderson’s last 12 months mean that would be an interesting debate, and we’re dealing with a man who has now taken 221 Test wickets at a staggering average of 21.74. If Robinson is beginning to flirt with greatness, Cummins has bought the ring and is headed to the altar.
Some will question his ability to play all five matches on the back of a World Test Championship final, but stamina has always been one of Cummins’ strengths and of all the bowlers on either side in the last few years, he has been the one who has never needed or wanted a rest. Having just turned 30, he is at just about the perfect age to meet such heavy demands and as captain, neither he nor Australia will want to consider him missing a match – particularly if the series is as close as expected. Injury could of course change that, but that is always a risk when betting on bowler markets.
Furthermore, with Green giving Australia a genuine fourth fast-bowling option this time around – and it should be noted that Cummins played in a four-man attack until the fifth Test in 2019 – the captain's load will be lessened a little in the coming weeks, and the reality that Boland is now ahead of Starc in the pecking order adds further appeal to the bet. When Starc didn't play in 2019, Cummins was left as the quickest bowler in the away attack and did most of the mopping up of the lower order, something Starc himself excels at. I see a similar scenario in this series, and Cummins should be able to pick up some cheap wickets when Starc is carrying the drinks.
The top batsman markets look more trappy. England’s is clearly competitive, more so than has sometimes been the case, and I’d be inclined to avoid Root at short odds given he averages under 40 against Australia. That record is nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s a significant dip on a career average of 50.24 and Australia have managed to keep him quiet more recently.
It’s probably wise to keep expectations to a minimum when looking at the top three. That’s not necessarily a criticism of Duckett, Zak Crawley or Ollie Pope, but we know just how hard it is to bat against the new Dukes ball in England, a point that was reinforced in the World Test Championship final. It’s worth remembering that New Zealand, India and England’s middle-order players were the ones scoring all the runs here last summer.
Stokes to stand up in Ashes cauldron
As such, I’ll be backing BEN STOKES in the top England batsman market. If we look back to that 2019 series, Stokes finished as England’s leading runscorer having made two hundreds and 441 runs in total. He played Cummins and Lyon better than anyone else, not just in that famous innings in Leeds, again underlining that he is a man who stands up to be counted when his country needs him most. We saw that again in the T20 World Cup in the winter.
Since taking over the captaincy, his output with the bat has reduced. He’s often erred on the wrong side of aggression, clearly determined to stamp his attacking ethos on the group and be seen to be leading from the front. I don’t mind that, but the honeymoon period is over now and I suspect that when the battle of an Ashes series hots up, and the biggest prize in cricket is on the line, Stokes will stand up and deliver – just as he has done so many times before.
This is a class act, one of the very best England has ever produced, and I’m happy to take the 10/1 available in the hope the middle order is once again the best place to bat in England.
Smith stands out with strong England record
With a touch more confidence, I see little point in looking past STEVE SMITH when it comes to the top overall series runscorer and 3/1 looks a good bet to me.
He was the difference between the two teams four years ago, and his typically obdurate century against India last week further enhanced what is already an incredible record in England. Seven centuries from only 17 Tests and an average of 60.70 is patently very good going, but England’s attack were devoid of ideas when bowling at Smith in 2019 and that was more telling than any amount of statistics. When it comes to Smith, England are still very much in the dark.
Wood enjoyed a little more success in the 2021/2022 series, but Smith wasn’t in the same form that winter as he appears to be in now, with the 34-year-old looking awfully close to the unbreakable man we saw here in 2019. And it's not just Test cricket. Smith has enjoyed a decent break before coming over to England, but prior to that he finished the Australian summer strongly and then signed off with two hundreds and a fifty in five Big Bash appearances for Sydney Sixers. I haven’t seen Smith play better than he did in those games, and his 121 against India last week would suggest his game remains in very good working order.
With my doubts about Root already raised, and Smith’s form and overall record in England at this stage better than Labuschagne's, Smith looks highly likely to dominate the run charts again. Perhaps Head, leading runscorer in the 2021/2022 series, can continue his golden spell, but there are enough deficiencies in his game to suggest he won’t have things all his own way over five Tests against a good attack. Not so Smith, and he rates very good value at the odds.
We’ll revisit the outright betting throughout the summer, but while Australia might just have the slight edge in terms of personnel, England are a dangerous side who remain on a steep upward trajectory. With home advantage always a factor, they promise to play their part in a series that could go either way – or else finish as it started, with honours even and leaving us wanting more.
Preview posted at 1915 BST on 11/06/2023
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