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Cricket betting tips: England v Australia Ashes second Test preview and best bets for Lord's
England and Australia renew hostilities in the second Ashes Test at Lord's on Wednesday – check out Richard Mann's in-depth preview here.
- Preview & selections posted prior to team news
Cricket tips: Second Ashes Test, England v Australia
1pt Ben Stokes top England first innings batsman at 8/1 (General)
1pt Chris Woakes top England first innings batsman at 40/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Cameron Green top Australia first innings batsman at 12/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Alex Carey top Australia first innings batsman at 17/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Pat Cummins Player of the Series at 9/1 (Betway, bet365)
The dust has just about settled on Australia’s thrilling first Test victory at Edgbaston, and already there are worrying noises coming out of the England camp. The cornerstone of Bazball has been Brendon McCullum’s ability to persuade his players to buy into his style of play, with captain Ben Stokes very much leading from the front. The batsmen have played with freedom and without fear and the bowlers have attacked, accepting economy rates will suffer in the search for wickets.
But for the first time, it appears there is some consternation in the camp regarding the types of pitches England should be requesting for the Ashes. Stokes has demanded flat surfaces that make things easier for his aggressive batting line-up to score quickly, but that does no favours to a bowling attack short of genuine pace and without a world-class spinner.
Stuart Broad was first to raise his head above the parapet, describing the pitch at Edgbaston as "slow" and "soulless" before Ollie Robinson, in his first column for Wisden, hinted he was hopeful there would be some movement in the pitch for the second Test at Lord's.
The knockout blow was landed by James Anderson, writing in his column for The Telegraph, who said: "The pitch was like Kryptonite for me. There was not much swing, no reverse swing, no seam movement, no bounce and no pace. I felt like I was fighting an uphill battle. It’s a long series and hopefully, I can contribute at some point, but if all the pitches are like that, I’m done in the Ashes series."
Such comments will not have gone down well with the England management, but it seems more than a coincidence that England’s three leading seamers made their feelings public in the space of a few days. They clearly have a different view to Stokes and after years of carrying the team when the batsmen proved largely unreliable, you can’t really blame them.
Lord's could restore balance of power
The first training session at Lord’s will be an interesting one and McCullum and Stokes will have some decisions to make – firstly about the type of surface they can request in order to give them the best chance to beat Australia, and how to ensure they aren’t alienating their best bowlers in order to make things easier for the batting group. McCullum talks a lot about man management and he will need to tread carefully to keep everyone pulling in the same direction.
Sporting Life RequestABet
11/1 - Stokes and Green to score 50+ runs each in 1st innings
Anderson and co will at least be relieved to return to Lord’s, a venue that usually promotes a good contest between bat and ball, with the ball often dominating on day one before the pitch flattens out and allows batsmen to score runs. That was the case last summer when Anderson and Matthew Potts reduced New Zealand to 12-4 and 45-7, before they were eventually bowled out for 132. England were then dismissed for 141, before the Kiwis made 285 in their second innings, and England then chased down 277 with relative ease.
It was a similar scenario when South Africa visited a couple of months later, England losing early wickets on their way to being bowled out for 165 as the seamers found plenty of assistance from the surface. And when Ireland played England on this ground last month, they didn’t make 200 in their first innings as Broad ran riot, but posted 362 second time around.
So, with that in mind – and predicting exact weather patterns this far out is never advisable in England – it seems fair to assume we will get a pitch that has something for the seamers on the first day, before getting better to bat on as the game progresses. That’s certainly been the theme in recent years and, given the grumblings amongst his bowlers, Stokes might be happy with that, too.
I do think this might be a situation where both captains might prefer to bowl first if winning the toss, unlike at Edgbaston, and I wrote about that in more detail before the series. This means playing overs on second innings runs is well worth considering in-running, as is backing overs after Lunch on the first day if wickets have fallen early.
Middle order can make hay at Lord's
For now, I think betting the middle order in the top batsman markets is the way to go. It’s worth noting that Colin de Grandhomme top scored from number seven in the aforementioned Test match with New Zealand here last year, before Daryl Mitchell made 106 and Tom Blundell 96 in the second innings from numbers five and six.
Joe Root, Stokes and Ben Foakes did the bulk of England’s scoring in their subsequent run chase and something similar might well happen again this week.
BEN STOKES looks the obvious starting point, then, having found a good tempo to his batting in his second-innings 43 in Birmingham.
Stokes has been criticised for being too aggressive with his batting since taking over as captain, so desperate has he been to force his attacking ethos on the team. However, that was always likely to change this summer, with his point well and truly made and the most important series on England’s calendar demanding Stokes the captain delivers big runs with the bat.
Stokes was England’s leading runscorer in the 2019 Ashes in England and his team now need something similar from their talisman if they are to force their way back into this series. Stokes struck a brilliant, unbeaten 115 on this ground in 2019 and given the expectation that we will see early wickets fall in the first innings during the first couple of days, I’m happy to side with him in the top England first innings batsman market at 8/1.
With Moeen Ali’s finger injury meaning he is a doubt for Lord’s, I do wonder if England will consider going into the match with an all-seam attack – meaning CHRIS WOAKES might come into the reckoning.
Woakes has an astonishing record at Lord’s, taking 27 wickets at an average of 11.33 with the ball and averaging 50.41 with the bat having made 137 not out against India in 2018. A recall might seem unlikely, but his all-round credentials would make him a viable alternative to Moeen and Rehan Ahmed and he would certainly be a good fit at number eight.
With stakes returned if he doesn’t play, I’ll add Woakes to the staking plan alongside Stokes. Should he get the nod in the coming days, Woakes' all-round record on this ground would also make him of interest in the Man of the Match market, but I was stung with Nathan Lyon at Edgbaston and will give this one a miss given I'm not particularly confident England will level the series this week.
Fast learners can lead the Australian charge
And with the same strategy, I’m going to take two from the Australia middle order, with CAMERON GREEN and ALEX CAREY fitting the bill perfectly.
Green has made an excellent start to his Test career, already establishing himself as a genuine fourth seamer in this excellent Australia side and settling nicely into the crucial number six position. Green already has a Test hundred to his name – made in India just a few months ago – and six more half-centuries to confirm he is an excellent batsman.
I like what I saw from the 24-year-old all-rounder last week and scores of 38 and 28 confirmed a promising first Test appearance in England. Things might get tougher in terms of conditions, but as he showed in India, Green is a fast learner who has proven particularly good at adapting his game to different challenges.
Furthermore, there is a good chance he will be well placed this week batting at number six, and both he and Carey are the type of fluent players who could make hay at Lord’s if batting conditions do improve once the new ball has done its damage.
While Green looks to be a young man with big potential, perhaps even destined for greatness, it is Carey’s excellent form in the here and now that wins me over with him. He helped keep Australia in the contest in the first innings at Edgbaston, punching his way to 66 from 99 balls, and made a breezy 20 in the second innings.
Like Green, that first taste of English conditions should mean he is even better prepared this week, and just as was the case when New Zealand played here last summer, that number seven position is not to be overlooked in the top Australia batsman market.
With Green available to be backed at 12/1 and Carey 17/1, I’m happy to play both in the hope the new ball can talk and set things up nicely for those tasked with repairing the early damage.
As far as this Test match goes I'm happy to otherwise sit tight, but now seems like a good time to back PAT CUMMINS to go on to be named Player of the Series at 9/1.
Cummins demonstrated his quality with a brilliant four-wicket haul in England’s second innings last week, shaking off the rust he displayed on the first day, and his searing, inswinging yorker to dismiss Ollie Pope sent a few warning shots to England for the rest of the series. On a pitch that left Anderson and Broad frustrated, Cummins was a clear level above the other seamers on either side.
I expect him to continue in that vein and as long as he doesn’t get injured, I can’t see him missing a game, despite the packed schedule and the fact rest and rotation will be seen amongst the other fast bowlers. Cummins is in his prime now, with excellent stamina, and it’s unheard of to see a captain resting himself in an Ashes series. Cummins played all five matches in 2019.
That along with the fact Cummins has had such a big impact on the series already – finishing 44 not out as Australia scrambled home by two wickets at Edgbaston – means that should Australia go on to win the series, or even retain the Ashes by drawing it, the 30-year-old seems sure to be firmly in the mix for closing honours.
Australia are certainly in the ascendancy as far as the overall picture goes and as such, concentrating on one their main performers, in this case their captain, makes sense. Cummins is highly likely to finish the series as one of the leading wicket-takers, perhaps the overall leading wicket-taker, and come the end of July we might well be looking back on his Edgbaston heroics with the bat as the defining moment in the Ashes.
Take the 9/1 for him to finish as Player of the Series.
Preview posted at 1825 BST on 25/06/23
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