Cricket betting tips: England v Australia Ashes fourth Test preview and best bets for Old Trafford
The Ashes are still very much up for grabs and Richard Mann has a selection of bets picked out for the fourth Test, which begins in Manchester on Wednesday.
Cricket tips: Fourth Ashes Test, England v Australia
2pts Ben Stokes to make a first innings fifty at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pt Ben Stokes to make a first innings century at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Mitchell Marsh to make a first innings fifty at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Mitchell Marsh to make a first innings century at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Pat Cummins to take over 2.5 first innings wickets at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pt Pat Cummins to take five or more first innings wickets at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Pat Cummins to be Man of the Match at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Sporting Life RequestABet
Stuart Broad & Mark Wood to Take 3+ Wickets Each in the First Inns
Ben Stokes & Mitchell Marsh to Score 50+ Runs Each in the First Inns
Another thrilling Ashes Test match at Headingley, this time going the way of England, means the series is very much alive as the circus heads to Old Trafford for the fourth Test, with Australia now nursing a 2-1 lead.
Australia were in a similar position in 2019 after Ben Stokes had pulled off an incredible heist in Leeds, before the tourists retained the Ashes with a commanding victory in Manchester. The difference this time is that whereas Australia always looked the better all-round side in 2019, there has been very little between the two teams this summer.
Australia will feel they squandered a golden opportunity to bat England out of the game and series in their second innings at Headingley, as Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith threw away their wickets to Moeen Ali, but England made much of the running in the first Test before Pat Cummins won the game with the bat, Stokes then very nearly eclipsing those efforts a few days later at Lord’s.
2-1 feels something close to a fair reflection of the cricket played so far, and England can most certainly win the series if they start to hold their catches and show the sort of resilience down the order that we saw from them in the second innings in Leeds. Lower-order runs are crucial, as demonstrated by Cummins at Edgbaston and then Chris Woakes and Mark Wood at Headingley. With pace and short balls in no short supply, it’s not much fun for those lower-order players, but their job to contribute is a crucial one.
That may be even more evident as the series progresses, with Old Trafford generally a good pitch offering pace and good carry, while the Oval is reported to have been very quick all summer and could help produce some fireworks if England arrive in South London all square for the series finale.
Old Trafford pitch could favour Australia
That would the perfect scenario for England fans and neutrals alike, but Australia will fancy their chances of winning the series from here with the expected pitches to come generally more to their liking. Historically, Australian batsmen have preferred pace and bounce in the wickets which closer replicate what they have grown up on at home, while their big, strapping fast bowlers like to see the ball carry and be able to use their height to extract bounce from the surface.
England aren't too dissimilar in that regard, with a quick but true surface like the one we saw in Leeds allowing their attacking batting line-up to play their natural game and score quickly, while good carry and a bit of pace keeps their seamers in the game and increases their chances of taking the 40 wickets they need to win the series from here. If there is some green grass left on those pitches, or some cloud cover, even better. As we saw at Headingley, that Australia’s top order is still vulnerable when England can get the ball moving sideways.
The beauty of this series is that as good as both teams are, they do have their frailties and imperfections, and that is what has made for such exciting viewing. England have made mistakes throughout, but they have also played some brilliant, brave cricket, highlighted by the match-winning partnership between Woakes and Wood in Leeds. In years gone by, perhaps the tail would have died a slow death in that situation, but Woakes defied his obvious weakness against the short ball by moving around the crease and looking to target the gaps and short boundaries, while Wood chose to blast his way to glory.
As for Australia, their fine seam attack suddenly looked stretched without the presence of Nathan Lyon to control one end and allow the seamers to rotate from the other. Pat Cummins has got through an immense amount of work already this summer and he isn’t done yet. If Todd Murphy can’t step up, or Cummins doesn’t trust him to do so, Australia have big problems. And if Wood stays fit, their lower order looks as vulnerable to his express pace as the top order does when England find movement through the air or off the pitch.
I’d still favour Australia from here, in the main because I think OId Trafford and the Oval will suit them well, but England genuinely believe they can win the series now and Leeds proved their method and bowling attack, with Wood back in the XI, can stand up to the ultimate test. The series really is set up beautifully.
With three of the five matches already done with, it’s probably now worth checking in on the outright series bets. Having advised 2-2 correct score, I’m certainly not giving up hope on that one, for all it doesn’t appear like this England side are going to settle for drawn matches, certainly not from this position. That said, two of the three matches have gone deep into into the final day and I still need convincing that Cummins is the type of aggressive captain to push the boat out should a safer option present itself at Old Trafford or the Oval, particularly if England win the next Test and really begin to build some momentum.
I might well be proven wrong on this, but I still wonder if Cummins would be happy to bat England out of a series decider before pushing for the win himself, or indeed shut up shop if set a tricky target on day five. And after the events that took place at Lord’s, England would be plain silly to gift Australia the series through recklessness if Cummins isn't prepared to meet them halfway.
The player bets are a mixed bag at this stage. Smith, one innings at Lord’s apart, has been disappointing and has his work cut out to catch Usman Khawaja for overall series batsman, while injury to Ollie Robinson more than likely means Stuart Broad will now be asked to play all five matches, and will thus finish as England’s leading wicket-taker.
In turn, that means our selection, Cummins (15), finds himself in a dogfight with Broad (16) and Mitchell Starc (13) for overall series bowler honours. I still fancy Cummins in what could prove a test of stamina from here, and the Australia captain must be in pole position for Player of the Series as well, given his consistently excellent displays with the ball and his Edgbaston heroics with the bat. The 5/1 still available is very fair, for those who didn't take the 9/1 advised a few weeks ago.
Stokes to stand up with Ashes on the line
Perhaps more exciting is that Stokes currently holds a useful lead over Ben Duckett and Joe Root in the England series runs list, and I’ve been really impressed with the tempo of his batting since the second innings at Edgbaston. I expected Stokes to leave behind the gung-ho approach of the last year when this series came around, and a strike-rate of 65.88 paints a picture of controlled aggression and excellent shot selection.
With so much on the line, I’m hopeful Stokes can keep delivering for his team – a decent break between Leeds and Manchester has given him chance to rest his creaking body – and I’m especially buoyed by the fact Stokes averages 52.80 in Test matches at Old Trafford. Stokes plays fast bowling on quick pitches well and it’s worth noting that he made a century against South Africa in Manchester last summer, and another against the same opposition at the Oval in 2017. Stokes is now as short as even-money to finish as England's leading runscorer in the series.
Root’s relatively modest record in Australia (average of 35.68) and the way he was again dismissed by Cummins in Leeds – fencing outside off stump – should encourage the Australians if we do indeed see more pace and bounce for the remainder of the series, but it's worth noting that his record on both grounds is excellent.
Nevertheless, expected conditions for the remainder of the series will pose different challenges for Duckett and Harry Brook. The more carry in the pitches, the more likely Duckett is to keep the slip cordon interested and he looked less comfortable at Headingley than when making two fifties on a sluggish surface at Lord’s. Refreshed after a decent break, I suspect Australia will look again at the short-ball tactic to Brook, given his bat trajectory is low to high when playing the pull shot, thus making him a prime candidate for holing out to the boundary riders on the leg side.
With all that in mind, Stokes is definitely worth seriously considering for the top England batsman market at Old Trafford and the Oval, even for those already invested on the Durham all-rounder for series honours. Having advised Stokes in the first innings at Lord’s, only to see him fail to convert a bright start on that occasion and then follow up with a big hundred in the second innings, before adding 80 in the first innings at Leeds, I might be in danger of chasing my tail a little here.
That shouldn’t be enough to dissuade me from having a bet, though, for all I’m of the view that the better value may be for BEN STOKES to make a first-innings fifty at 11/4, with a top-up on the century at 8/1. With so much seemingly in his favour, and a good rest to repair his war wounds since Leeds, he ought to play well this week, and on what is expected be a true, quick pitch, this appeals as the best approach.
More Marsh magic in Manchester?
On a similar theme, I’ll be striking the same bets on MITCHELL MARSH who marked his return to the Australia Test team with a brilliant century at Headingley. It then took a really good delivery to dismiss him second time around and while many of his teammates were struggling to handle Wood’s extreme pace, Marsh, who was born and bred in Western Australia and grew up batting at the WACA, looked at ease throughout.
We shouldn’t have been surprised. Marsh has always been at his best against genuinely quick bowling and the last few years of his career have seen him finally deliver on his undoubted potential in international cricket. That has generally come in the limited-overs formats, with Test cricket much harder to crack, chiefly because Cameron Green has made the all-rounder position his own.
But a late injury to Green in Leeds opened the door for Marsh and he took his opportunity with both hands. Old Trafford should suit his batting well again and even if Green is fit to return, I suspect David Warner’s place is more vulnerable, with Travis Head potentially opening the batting, just as he did in India a few months ago.
However that one plays out, Marsh should be locked into the middle order, a position regular readers of these pages will know I very much favour when it comes to betting on Test cricket in England. Khawaja very much bucked the trend earlier in the series, but even he found things tougher in Leeds, and I’ll be siding with Stokes and Marsh to make plenty of runs in Manchester.
Cummins worth a bet in ideal conditions
I’m happy to leave the England bowler market alone, but PAT CUMMINS and Josh Hazlewood should bowl well at Old Trafford, on a surface that is generally hard and offers good pace. Back of a length, hit the pitch bowlers, both tend to seam rather than swing the ball, and that works perfectly on this ground.
Cummins took seven wickets on his only previous appearance on this ground in 2019 and I'd be very surprised were he not to show up well again. As previously mentioned, Cummins has done plenty of bowling already on this tour, but after a nine-day break following the third Test, he should be fresh and raring to go in Manchester, with any possible fatigue more likely to set in at the Oval which follows only a matter of days after this game.
The Australia captain looked frustrated having seen his team fail to clinch the series in Leeds, so expect him to have the bit between his teeth this week and 5/6 for him to claim over 2.5 wickets in the first innings (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) rates a solid proposition. With doubts over rookie spinner, Murphy, Cummins will again have to shoulder plenty of the burden, but that should ensure he gets another crack at the lower order, too. To small stakes, also back Cummins to take five wickets in the first innings at 6/1.
The Man of the Match market isn't quite as straightforward, and I've again made the case for Cummins to be Player of the Series earlier in the column. Nevertheless, I really do think there are many reasons to believe the 30-year-old is set for a big week in Manchester, on a pitch that will likely suit him and his team. As such, a small bet on Cummins to be Man of the Match has to make the staking plan.
Preview posted at 1900 BST on 16/07/2023
More Ashes content:
- Fourth Test preview
- Old Trafford ground guide
- Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
- Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.