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Cricket betting tips: England v Australia Ashes first Test preview and best bets
Edgbaston plays host to the first Ashes Test which begins in Birmingham on Friday morning – Richard Mann has two recommended bets in his match preview.
Cricket tips: First Ashes Test, England v Australia
1pt Nathan Lyon to be Man of the Match at 12/1 (General)
1pt Steve Smith to make a first innings century at 4/1 (General)
Sporting Life RequestABet
25/1 - Smith to score 100+ runs in first inns, Lyon to take 8+ wkts in the match
After months of waiting, the customary back and forth chat between camps, and strong recent Test match wins for both sides, the moment has finally come. On Friday, England and Australia will renew hostilities in the latest edition of the Ashes – this series probably the most anticipated in over a decade.
Australia will start favourites for the series, as they will for Friday’s opener (11/8) at Edgbaston which is a re-run of the first Ashes Test in 2019 when Australia overcame an indifferent start with the bat to eventually run out convincing victors.
As I argued in my series preview here, these are two evenly matched teams, for all they have strengths and weaknesses in different areas. The contrasting approaches makes this clash even more intriguing. As they say in boxing, styles make fights, and we could be in for a memorable dust-up in the coming weeks.
In-play markets expected to offer big value
My approach to the individual match markets is unlikely to change throughout. Unless I have a particularly strong view either way, I’d much prefer to make my move in-running, and my Cricket…Only Bettor colleague Paul Krishnamurty has been kind enough to share some of his in-play wisdom for betting on Test cricket in a feature he penned for Sporting Life on Monday.
Paul touched upon the need to be nimble and also accept that England’s style of play makes for unpredictably, and thus, volatile markets with big fluctuations. I don’t mind that at all, and betting England when they were on the back foot last summer paid dividends on numerous occasions.
Equally, one suspects that even when they are on top – as they were before losing the second of two Tests in New Zealand in the winter – England will often leave the door open for a counterattack.
It's worth remembering that England made much of the running on this ground in 2019, only for Steve Smith to turn the match in Australia's favour with twin hundreds, before Nathan Lyon made use of spinning conditions to claim six wickets in the fourth innings.
I wrote only this week on the subject of how teams are slowly ignoring the stigma attached with bowling first in Test cricket – both India and Australia favoured that tactic in the World Test Championship final – and this England side much preferred to chase in England last summer.
Hot spell could bring Lyon into play
I do wonder if that won’t be the case this week, however, with the recent hot spell meaning a surface that took plenty of spin late in the piece four years ago – and has continued to do in First Class cricket, the T20 Blast and The Hundred – could become very dry and ensure batting last against high-quality spin is hard work.
England don’t really have that in their armoury, and Jack Leach’s injury means Moeen Ali will be thrown straight back into the pressure cooker. Moeen struggled badly in the corresponding Test four years ago and didn’t feature for the rest of the series against an Australian side that has continually had his number over the years. Moeen averages 64.65 with the ball against the old enemy.
Australia are in a much stronger position when it comes to spin, and NATHAN LYON – fast approaching 500 Test wickets – will be licking his lips at the prospect of bowling at Edgbaston again, given his two previous appearances here have yielded 12 wickets at 20.75.
My series preview highlighted why I think Pat Cummins is a solid wager for top overall series bowler, and that in picking a middle order of predominantly right-handers, England appear well set-up for Lyon, but that doesn’t mean the latter won’t get through plenty of overs and have success.
In fact, the two grounds Lyon promises to be most effective at this summer are Edgbaston and Old Trafford, and with that England middle order potentially undercooked for the series opener – Root and Stokes spent their time at the IPL carrying drinks while Bairstow is still working his way back to top form after serious injury – perhaps this week is the time to catch Lyon.
I won’t be going mad, but I think the veteran spinner will have a big say in Birmingham again and I'm happy to throw a few quid at him in the Man of the Match market at 12/1.
An early look at the pitch would suggest it is just what the Doctor ordered, or what Stokes ordered, with very little green grass and a straw-like appearance hinting at runs in the first innings. That also further raises the possibility that we will see spin play a big part later in the game, but for the first few days at least, I don’t envisage batsmen on either side having too many complaints.
Smith set to dominate latest Ashes episode
These are the type of pitches that Stokes has requested, so to better suit his aggressive batting line-up, and I do think we will see hundreds scored in this match.
With the doubts I’ve already raised about England’s middle order in terms of their preparation ahead of the series, I’ll pass them over this week, with the obvious play appearing to be STEVE SMITH to make a first innings century at 4/1.
Smith made two in the same match on this very ground in 2019 in what was a batting masterclass, and another hundred against India in the World Test Championship final last week was his seventh on these shores, bumping his average in England up to 60.70.
I haven’t seen much evidence to suggest England have found the answer to Smith yet, and though express pace from Mark Wood is the nearest I believe they have come to that, I don’t think the pitch in Birmingham will be anything like what we saw Down Under in the last Ashes when Wood had some success against Australia’s talisman.
Ever since returning to his prolific best in Australia’s home summer a few months back, Smith’s batting has looked in really good shape again and I have no qualms in adding him to the staking plan for the first Test, despite already having him on side in my series book.
That might change in a few weeks, but I’d prefer to judge each bet on its merits for now and Smith and Lyon make plenty of appeal to back up their match-winning exploits when Edgbaston was once again host to the Ashes curtain-raiser four years ago.
Preview posted at 2230 BST on 13/06/23
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