England continue their World Cup defence when meeting Afghanistan on Sunday morning, where Richard Mann provides a value wager.
Afghanistan made a decent fist of things when slipping to an eight-wicket reverse to India on Wednesday, particularly with the bat, standing up to a strong home attack before eventually posting 272-8 batting first.
It wasn’t enough to prevent defeat, nor should it be against an England side who got back to winning ways with a dominant victory over Bangladesh in their second match.
A brilliant hundred from Dawid Malan (140) and half-centuries from Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow helped England bulldoze their way to 364-9, and with the template now set, the defending champions will be banking on something similar on the same ground South Africa posted 428-5 against Sri Lanka, before conceding 326 in reply.
Afghanistan do have quality in their bowling attack, not least through wrist spinner Rashid Khan, but this is the sort of venue which should really suit England’s deep, aggressive batting line-up, and I can see them scoring big if batting first.
In fact, runs could be the order of the day throughout, for all I do think Afghanistan will ultimately be outgunned. Both teams to score 275 runs is a definite runner here if Afghanistan can bat well again, but 5/4 makes little appeal.
In the top batsmen markets, I’m happy to let England’s powerful top five fight among themselves, instead preferring IBRAHIM ZADRAN to do the business for Afghanistan.
Zadran has certainly shaped as if ready to put together a substantial score, making 22 twice so far at this World Cup, with his game and timing looking in really good order.
What we know about the 21-year-old already is that he generally goes big once set, as four hundreds and four more fifties from 21 ODIs would confirm, and I remain convinced that he is the class act in the Afghanistan batting line-up.
He’s clearly the man to beat and anything in the region of 4/1 will pay in the long run.
The other bet I have in mind is a buy on Joe Root's runs, or to make a fifty.
As I've already argued, the top England batsman market is too competitive to take a strong view on, but Root has been in fine touch since arriving in India, putting together scores of 77 and 82.
He should continue to make hay, and Afghanistan's spin-heavy bowling attack will be ideal for the Yorkshireman.
Preview published at 1500 BST on 13/10/23
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