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Cricket betting tips: Birmingham Phoenix v Southern Brave preview and best bets for The Hundred
Birmingham Phoenix and Southern Brave meet in Saturday's Eliminator at the Oval, where Richard Mann has a couple of big-priced selections to consider.
Cricket betting tips: The Hundred Eliminator
1pt Adam Milne Match Hero at 20/1 (General)
1pt Tim Southee Match Hero at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
A place in the final of The Hundred is up for grabs when Birmingham Phoenix and Southern Brave lock horns in the Eliminator at the Oval on Saturday night, 6.00pm, UK time.
Brave won the regular-season meeting between the two sides by 32 runs, a sparkling, unbeaten 90 from captain James Vince proving the difference, but I have Saturday's clash down as a battle between two fine bowling attacks.
I think this will be even more true at the Oval, a venue where batting has consistently been hard work all through the competition.
London Spirit were rolled out for 96 here last week as both seam and spin did the job, while Brave only managed 118-8 when they lost to Oval Invincibles. Way back at the beginning of the tournament, Phoenix struggled badly and were bowled out for just 89.
Tough batting conditions has been a theme of The Hundred this year, with some sporting pitches and the unusually hooping white Kookaburra balls meaning seamers in particular have had plenty to work with, and for much longer than we are used to.
Spin can certainly be a factor on this ground, as two Match Hero awards for Adam Zampa confirm, but I do think this match will be won by high-class pace bowling, of which both teams possess plenty.
Jofra Archer leads the line for Brave, ably supported by Tymal Mills and Chris Jordan, but they will be keen to have Craig Overton back after he missed the last game with a hamstring niggle.
Overton has enjoyed another good season and is just the type of expert new-ball bowler who could be a real handful on this surface, particularly with the Oval offering plenty of bounce to the taller seamers.
Were Overton to be passed fit, I’d be minded to throw a few quid at him in the Match Hero market at 18/1.
With doubts about his fitness and Archer going the distance last time out to continue a largely moderate campaign by his own high standards, I reckon Phoenix might just be in pole position here.
In ADAM MILNE, Tim Southee and Sean Abbott they have three wonderful overseas seam bowlers who are ideal for these conditions, all able to swing and seam that new ball with great proficiency, yet offering slightly differing challenges to boot.
Milne is quick and able to touch 90mph when in good rhythm, while Southee is a canny operator whose pace might have dipped but has become a more well-rounded white-ball bowler with experience. Abbott, attack leader for the outstanding Sydney Sixers in the Big Bash, is by no means a back number.
Both batting units are strong. Vince is key for Brave at the top of the order – he’s currently the leading runscorer in the competition – but the likes of Kieron Pollard, Leus de Plooy and Laurie Evans add depth, for all the last-named pair haven’t yet fired like they can.
For Phoenix, much depends on Ben Duckett who is averaging a staggering 87.33 in six matches since returning from international duty. Liam Livingstone has found things tougher, but he could flick the switch at any moment, similarly Jamie Smith and Jacob Bethell.
If pushed, I’d have Phoenix favourites here, but I do think the new ball and both powerplays will again be crucial, so I make no apologies for again rowing in with ADAM MILNE in the Match Hero market.
Milne was a 17/1 winner for these pages when starring against Manchester Originals on Thursday, finally gaining just reward for a string of impressive, but largely luckless performance so far this term.
He’ll be a handful again and if he can cause some early damage against this well-touted Brave top order, he'll be firmly in the mix for top honours again.
20/1 certainly looks worth another go.
As stated earlier, Overton would have to be considered if passed fit, but it’s hard to know where we are with him, so I’ll take another of the Phoenix pace attack to be Match Hero.
TIM SOUTHEE – with 14 wickets from only eight marches this term – is enjoying a stellar season and he won this market with 5-12 against Trent Rockets’ strong batting line-up earlier this week.
The veteran Kiwi is the style of bowler that Vince – the prized scalp on offer in the Brave batting order – has historically struggled with. If Southee can get that outswinger working early, Vince will be vulnerable and that could well set the wheels in motion for Phoenix victory.
Another bet considered was no fifty to be scored in the match, but the fancy prices in this market have dried up now, and frankly, I’ve had enough bad beats on this project in the last few weeks to suggest it’s one to avoid for the time being.
So, it’s left to the Kiwi double act who are backed to fire Phoenix into Sunday’s final where defending champions Oval Invincibles lie in wait.
Posted at 1220 BST on 16/08/24
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