Cricket betting tips: Australia v South Africa series and first Test preview and best bets
Richard Mann previews the high-profile Test series between Australia and South Africa, and also has a selection for the first Test which begins in Brisbane on Saturday morning.
Cricket tips: Australia v South Africa series and first Test
3pts Anrich Nortje top South Africa series bowler at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Kyle Verreynne top South Africa series batsman at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Kyle Verreynne top South Africa first-innings batsman in the first Test at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
With the latest edition of the Big Bash League having started on Tuesday, just a day after England sealed a famous series win in Pakistan, Australia and South Africa renew hostilities when they kick off a three-match Test series at the Gabba in the early hours of Saturday morning.
These two sides have enjoyed some wonderful battles over the years, with Australia's last-gasp victory in Cape Town in 2014 perhaps the most memorable of all as Ryan Harris bowled his team to glory on one leg at the end of a pulsating series.
South Africa have enjoyed success on these shores as well, and they were 2-1 winners back in 2016 in a series that was marred by controversy but saw their brilliant pace attack prove too strong for the hosts.
South Africa batting a cause for concern
The Proteas return with another fine bowling attack this time around, led by Kagiso Rabada and the lightning quick Anrich Nortje, but their batting is as weak as it has been for some time – the likes of Hashim Amla, Faf du Plessis and Quinton de Kock all having retired since 2016.
Captain Dean Elgar will need to shoulder a huge burden of responsibility at the top of the order, but he was only one of three players to score over 100 runs in last summer’s defeat in England – Sarel Erwee was South African's leading runscorer with a paltry 127 runs across three matches – and South Africa will meet a high-class Australian bowling attack in the coming weeks.
Josh Hazlewood – who seems set to miss a chunk of this series with a side strain – and Pat Cummins sat out the recent win over West Indies in Adelaide, but Scott Boland and Michael Neser once again proved worthy replacements.
With Cummins seemingly set for a swift return, South Africa’s fragile batting line-up could be up against it, while Australia have no such concerns following the glut of runs Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head and Steve Smith amassed against West Indies.
Australia are just a very formidable opponent on home turf, as England once again found out in last winter’s Ashes, and quotes of 1/4 about them chalking up another series success make sense.
Verreynne to make hay in middle order
I’ll leave the outright series market alone, then, but do think there is decent value in the top South Africa series batsman market, with wicket-keeper KYLE VERREYNNE making plenty of appeal at the prices.
Batting could be particularly tough work for the top order in this series, with Elgar, Erwee and Rassie van der Dussen – who is pencilled in to bat at number three having made runs in the warm-up match against a Cricket Australia XI – sure to have plenty on against the likes of Cummins and Mitchell Starc.
But batting ought to get easier for the middle order, and Joe Root was England’s leading runscorer in the aforementioned Ashes series from number four, while Chris Woakes top scored on two occasions from number eight. The dominance of Australia’s middle order against West Indies recently adds further weight to that argument.
It’s a great shame that injury to Keegan Peterson means he misses this tour, so Verreynne is preferred to Theunis de Bruyn who has always looked a good player with a sound game, but is 12 matches into his Test career and averages under 20, despite making a century in Sri Lanka.
I still wouldn’t discount him at 12/1, but Verreynne is a couple of points bigger at 14/1 and comes into this series in terrific form having made a double hundred in domestic cricket recently, and then backed that up with 80 in the warm-up fixture.
Verreynne hasn’t pulled up any trees at this level yet, but his Test numbers are stronger than the likes of de Bruyn and his sole Test century is one more than van der Dussen has managed to date. Furthermore, that hundred was a brilliant, unbeaten 136 against a strong New Zealand attack in Christchurch in an innings where no other batsman passed 50.
I quite liked what I saw from Verreynne in England last summer – a simple technique and a seemingly calm temperament – and though he didn’t back it up with big runs, he did make a couple of starts, and I suspect there is more to come from the 25-year-old.
At 14/1 for top South Africa series batsman, he’s worth a spin, with the same price on offer about him to top score in Brisbane also too big to ignore.
This ground hosted the first Ashes Test last winter, when wicket-keeper Jos Buttler top scored from number seven in England’s first innings, just pipping Ollie Pope who batted at six in that match. Something similar this week would do nicely.
South Africa and Anrich Nortje are running riot 💥
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) August 19, 2022
England are now six wickets down 😬 pic.twitter.com/OhkYfPylCp
With so many of the Australian batting line-up in rich form, I’ve no interest having a bet in the top Australian batsman market, and the pitch here 12 months ago did more than enough to suggest holding fire with any century bets for now.
Nortje can thrive in Australia
If Pat Cummins is back to full fitness for Australia, he is patently the man to follow for the home side with the ball, but his recent injury does muddy the waters there a little, not so with ANRICH NORTJE who looks a good bet in the top South Africa series bowler market.
Nortje missed the recent warm-up match, but it was the same in England last summer before he bowled with terrific pace to claim 10 wickets in three matches on pitches that probably didn’t suit him as well as Australia’s quick, bouncy surfaces promise to do.
Rabada enjoyed England much better, picking up 14 wickets in the series with his booming outswing, but he endured a poor T20 World Cup on these shores subsequently, whereas Nortje was exceptional throughout – taking 11 wickets to Rabada’s two, at a markedly better economy. Lungi Ngidi, who looks set to play as the third seamer for South Africa, picked up seven wickets in that competition.
This will be Nortje’s first Test series in Australia, and I really think conditions will be tailor-made for him at venues such as the Gabba and the MCG. A big, tall man capable of reaching speeds close to 100mph, he is the archetypal fast bowler for Australian conditions who could have easily been cloned to bowl on these pitches.
Nortje is 3/1 to take more wickets in the series than Rabada (2/1) and Ngidi (5/1), and he must rate a strong bet at those odds.
Preview posted at 1410 GMT on 14/12/2022
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