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Cricket betting tips: Australia v India first Test and outright series preview and best bets
A huge five-match Test series between fierce rivals Australia and India begins in Perth in the early hours of Friday morning – Richard Mann offers his thoughts here.
Cricket betting tips: Australia v India first Test
2pts Rishabh Pant top India first innings batsman at 5/1 (Sky Bet, Star Sports)
1pt Mitchell Marsh top Australia first innings batsman at 8/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
1pt Mitchell Marsh to make a first innings fifty at 9/4 (Betway)
2pts Usman Khawaja to make a first innings fifty at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
There has always been something special about overseas Test cricket in these dark, cold winter months. Matches played in the middle of the night, when a thick blanket or a large dressing gown is needed for company during those early hours when sleep is stubbornly resisted in the pursuit of a winner or two.
Too often, life gets in the way of such pleasures, but those of us currently enduring the nightly battle with two infant children who continue to mount their own resistance to sleep will see plenty of Test cricket in the coming weeks.
Hello Mrs Mann, let me introduce your new and improved husband. Middle of the night feeds? You can count on me.
Australia versus India is the big one
And the upcoming Test series between Australia and India, which begins in the early hours of Friday morning in Perth, will see the return of arguably the biggest rivalry in cricket right now. England fans might scoff at such sentiment, but Australia versus India is currently the hottest ticket in town, in the main because recent meetings between these two sides have been both brilliant and hard-fought.
India won the last series at home in the spring of 2023, but were made to work for it, having claimed a touchstone series win Down Under in 2022. Australia, however, are the current world Test champions having defeated India in the final at the Oval in the summer of 2023, that just a matter of months before Australia beat India in the 50-over World Cup final in Ahmedabad.
Make no mistake, this is a proper rivalry. When you throw into the mix that this is a five-match series, one which pits some ageing but outstanding generational cricketers against each other for possibly the last time – think the likes of Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Nathan Lyon to name just a few – then these next few weeks really do promise so much.
Sadly for India, their preparation has been far from perfect. Captain and opening batsman Rohit will miss the first Test on paternity leave, while number three Shubman Gill isn’t expected to play in Perth, either. Some major repair work, therefore, will need to be carried out on a top six already battered and bruised from a humiliating, shock home series whitewash at the hands of New Zealand.
Jasprit Bumrah will captain in the first Test, as if he doesn’t have enough on his plate leading the bowling attack.
As was the case in 2022, don’t be surprised if India start the series poorly, before getting stronger as they find their feet in these conditions and once those big guns return to bolster the batting. Australia’s reliance on their ‘big three’ paceman could become exposed later in the series, too.
India injuries lead to Pant
But we’ll start with Perth, where the top first innings India batsman market looks rife for a bet in absence of Rohit and Gill.
Kohli is the obvious starting point, given he boasts an outstanding record in Australia – averaging 54.08 on these shores – and that he made a hundred in Perth in 2018. However, there is a depth of recent evidence to suggest his star is on the wane, and as ever, he takes a big chunk of the market.
So, too, does Yashasvi Jaiswal, though his recent record is much more compelling. Jaiswal has scored 1407 runs at 56.28 in the current ICC Test Championship cycle, though those numbers are skewed by performances at home. When India toured South Africa last winter, Jaiswal struggled, though it’s worth noting the pitches played in that series were very poor.
Regardless, given the current prices, I’m happy to let him go in Perth of all places – often such a culture shock for subcontinent batsmen.
That’s not to say this is a bad place to bat. In fact, big first innings runs has very much been the norm here in recent years, and Australia posted 478 against Pakistan last year and 598-4 declared against West Indies in 2022.
However, a bit of previous Perth experience is always useful, so it’s hard to ignore the claims of RISHABH PANT who was India’s leading runscorer on the tour here in 2020/2021. His 159 not out at the Gabba will live long in the memory and he averages an impressive 62.40 in Australia from seven games.
Way back in 2018 when Pant’s international career was very much in its infancy, the left-hander handled the unique traits of Perth well in a pair of promising innings, so I think there is good reason to except another solid showing from a man who looked in fine touch throughout the recent series with New Zealand.
Rishabh Pant with a lovely 97 👏👏👏
— Cricket on TNT Sports (@cricketontnt) January 11, 2021
🏏 118 balls faced
💥 Three sixes #AUSvIND pic.twitter.com/KG2N7WzDq4
I do wonder if the India middle order might be the place to focus on here, shielded from the new ball, and that means the likes of Ravi Jadeja and Dhruv Jurel are also worth a mention.
Jadeja has become a thoroughly dependable middle-order player, particularly in challenging conditions away from home. He and Pant both made hundreds against a rampant England at Edgbaston in 2022, though I do fear a top six, or even top seven, spot might evade him given he is another left-hander and that off-spinner Nathan Lyon is in opposition.
Durel is a terrific prospect who I do hope gets a chance on this tour. He put his name firmly in the hat with scores of 80 and 68 against Australia A just a matter of days ago and just looks a player with a touch of class. No previous Perth experience counts against him, but he’s well worth a watch.
All things considered, I make Pant the bet at 5/1.
Those two previously mentioned mammoth first-innings scores from Australia on this ground in the last two years saw the home top order fare particularly well, with Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith registering double hundreds against West Indies.
However, I do have a few doubts about this Australia batting line-up in general, and Shamar Joseph exposed some weakness when bowling West Indies to a famous Test victory at the Gabba at the beginning of the year.
Middle-order magic from Marsh?
In fact, only MITCHELL MARSH (46.87) and USMAN KHAWAJA are averaging over forty (41.00) in the current Test Championship cycle, with the likes of Labuschagne and Travis Head below 30. I’m remiss to start writing off some terrific players with strong career records, but a check at those numbers did reaffirm some concerns I’ve had for a while now about Australia's batting.
Back on home soil, they will be expected to come good, but I can’t shake the feeling that some in that top six are vulnerable, so at 8/1, MARSH looks the value call for top Australia batsman honours.
Marsh is Perth born and bred, and is at his best on the hard, bouncy pitches that he has grown up on in Western Australia. His play of spin bowling is more than adequate, but there is little doubting that he's seen to best effect when pace is the chief threat. His record at home is far superior to anywhere else in the world, with England next best.
More recently, Marsh has really come of age. He has managed to stay fit more regularly and crucially, has been backed by the current management and captain, Pat Cummins. Being awarded the prestigious Alan Borden Medal earlier the year is testament to just how far he has come.
Marsh certainly appeared in good form when Australia travelled to England for a white-ball tour at the end of the summer over here, and a classy 94 for his state against Queensland recently was a nice warm-up for this series.
Having come so close to a century on his home ground against Pakistan last year, when bowled on 90, followed by 63 not out in the second innings, Marsh will no doubt be keen to make home advantage count again.
8/1 for top Australia batsman honours just looks the wrong price to me. With Betway offering 9/4 for the strapping all-rounder to make a first innings fifty, that bet also looks worth adding to the staking plan just in case someone higher up the order goes big.
Khawaja rates solid bet material
That someone could be the aforementioned Khawaja who has just about been Australia’s most consistent batsman ever since returning to the side in the last home Ashes series. Khawaja has developed into an outstanding Test match opener, one who is more than capable of mixing attack and defence, and batting time when required.
Khawaja enjoyed a strong tour of India early last year, and averages 46.50 in three Tests in Perth. Moreover, the 37-year-old has looked in good touch in domestic cricket so far this summer, getting plenty of game-time under his belt and stroking four fifties. Hs form certainly looks there.
13/8 for a first innings fifty rates solid bet material.
Hazlewood stands out for Australia
With five matches to be played, it’s hard to see the quick bowlers getting through without a break somewhere along the way, so any top series bowler markets are treated with caution.
That’s a shame because I would otherwise be very keen on the claims on Josh Hazlewood who has more wickets, a superior average and better strike-rate than Lyon, Cummins or Mitchell Starc in the current Test Championship cycle.
Hazlewood’s injury record will likely mean he is rested for a Test somewhere along the way, whereas Lyon won’t sit out unless picking up an injury. As captain, Cummins will surely endeavour to play all five matches.
Perth does suit Hazlewood well. From four games here, the big New South Wales quick has 11 wickets at 23.36, but both Cummins and Starc boast fine numbers in Western Australia, too.
As such, I’ll reluctantly let Hazlewood go this time and rely on Pant and Khawaja to kick off what promises to be a special few weeks for Test match lovers all over the world.
Those night feeds, not so bad after all.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 20/11/24
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