Three bets feature in Richard Mann's staking plan for the fifth Test between Australia and India at the SCG on Thursday night.
Cricket betting tips: Australia v India
2pts KL Rahul top India first innings batsman at 24/5 (William Hill)
1pt Marnus Labuschagne top Australia first innings batsman at 9/2 (General)
1pt Marnus Labuschagne to make a first innings century at 6/1 (Boylesports)
India can still retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy if able to win the fifth and final Test match of what has been an absorbing series at the SCG this week, hostilities due to renew at 11:30pm, UK time on Thursday.
The tourists will still believe they can leave Australia with something to show for their considerable efforts over the last few weeks but, ultimately, they have been outplayed and outclassed in almost all departments since winning the series opener comfortably in Perth.
And India have most certainly fought hard in the first four games. For much of the final day in Melbourne, it appeared they would escape from the MCG with a draw and chance still to win the series, but they have too many holes to fill in a failing batting line-up and that was again their downfall.
Since making a rather meaningless second-inning hundred in Perth, star man Virat Kohli has only managed a high score of 36, while captain Rohit Sharma has yet to reach double figures in six innings in the series so far.
The struggles of India's star batting duo mean there is now a remarkable look to the top India batsman market, with Ravi Jadeja and Melbourne centurion Nitish Reddy both 10/1 or shorter even though they are likely to slot in between six and eight in the batting order.
Reddy has won this market four times in the series already, but still, it’s highly unusual to see a number seven or eight so short in the betting. Punters, it seems, don’t want to touch Kohli or Rohit.
Rahul the pick for India
Neither do I, but their struggles do make this market appealing, and I’m going to take KL RAHUL in what might prove to be a match with Yashasvi Jaiswal.
The latter just gets better and better, and scores of 82 and 84 at the MCG took his series tally to 359 runs at an average of 51.28. It’s been tough work for openers in this series, but Jaiswal has been head and shoulders above the rest.
He warrants maximum respect again, but I’ve plumped for Rahul, who I’ve always been a huge admirer of and who has performed admirably on this tour, better than his bare numbers would suggest.
Let’s not forget, Rahul began this tour under serious pressure and if India have got one thing right, it has been their insistence to back the 32-year-old to the hilt despite him arriving Down Under in poor form and offering nothing in the warm-up match against Australia A.
It was Rahul's past success away from home, which includes seven hundreds compared to only one at home, that convinced selectors to stick with him, and they have been rewarded with a series of battling knocks at the top of the order, the pick of which were innings of 77 and 84 in Perth and Brisbane respectively.
Rahul’s patience and excellent technique has really shone through, and though he had a quiet game when moved down to number three in the fourth Test, that doesn’t worry me too much given that versatility has been one of the hallmarks of his career.
Rahul has made runs from every position in the top six and in the Boxing Day Test of 2023 in South Africa, he battled hard for a brilliant hundred on a spicy pitch in Centurion against a very good Proteas pace attack.
I want a bet in this market, given Kohli and Rohit are struggling, and with the lower order now offering no value, Rahul gets the vote.
Labuschagne coming good for Sydney
The top Australia batsman market is more competitive, with Steve Smith and Travis Head both in the runs of late.
Another who has impressed is MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE, and I’ll be backing him in a couple of markets.
Like Rahul, Labuschagne started the series short of runs and under the microscope, but he too has repaid the faith placed in him by selectors, improving throughout the series and playing a big hand in both the wins in Adelaide and Melbourne.
His 64 in Adelaide was a terrific effort as he and Nathan McSweeney were forced to battle through an initially stern examination against the new pink ball under lights, before he stitched together a big partnership with Head the following day.
And then in Melbourne it was Labuschagne at his best, scores of 72 and 70 finally revealing his more fluent side. Though a deserved century never came, the significance of those innings, particularly when Australia were on the ropes in the second innings, cannot be overstated.
The biggest compliment you can give Labuschagne is that he looked as comfortable facing India spearhead Jasprit Bumrah as anyone has done all series, so much so that he was turning down singles against that opposition bowler so to protect the very capable Cummins from India’s main man.
That says a lot not only about Labuschagne’s personality, but also the confidence he has in his game again, even against the exceptional Bumrah who has troubled Australia all summer.
I can’t resist backing Labuschagne in the top Australia batsman market at 9/2, split stakes with the number three to make a first innings century at 6/1.
From six Tests on this ground, Labuschagne currently averages 81.55 with a high score of 215. With his form trending upwards, there is lots to like about him this week.
Overworked Bumrah close to breaking point
I’ve already referenced the excellent series Bumrah is enjoying, and 30 wickets at 12.83 by no means flatters him. We are witnessing one of the great fast bowlers at the top of his game right now.
The problem for India is that he has received very little support from his bowling colleagues, and the over-reliance on Bumrah means he could be close to breaking point following such a heavy workload.
He’ll be turned out again no doubt, but India’s lack of penetration in the rest of their attack, along with a misfiring batting line-up, means it will take something special for them to level what has been a most enjoyable series between two of cricket’s big hitters.
It's a shame it has to end, really.
Posted at 1205 GMT on 01/01/25
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