County Championship betting tips: Division One preview

The Specsavers County Championship undergoes significant changes to its structure for this season, with the total matches played by each team dropping from 16 to 14.

After two teams were relegated from Division One and only one team promoted from the second tier, there are now eight teams in the top flight and 10 in Division Two.

Division One therefore follows a standard home-and-away league structure with every team playing the other seven twice for a total of 14.

However, in Division Two - which we have already previewed here -  each team will play five teams twice and four teams only once to reach the total of 14.

The points system remains unchanged, with 16 points for a win, eight for a tie and five for a draw. Up to eight bonus points are available in the first 110 overs of each first innings, with batting points up to a maximum of five awarded, one for every 50 runs from 200 upwards, and bowling points awarded for three, six and nine wickets. 

Durham start their Division Two campaign on minus 48 points after an ECB sanction.

(Last season’s positions all as at the end of the playing season, before Durham were relegated from Division One by the ECB for accepting a financial bailout)

Recommended bets:

2pts Somerset to win the title at 17/2 – heartbreaking near miss last year, but well-equipped squad way overpriced to go one better 12 months on

1pt e.w. (1/4, 1,2,3,4) Peter Handscomb to be division’s top runscorer at 28/1 – top-quality overseas signing, playing for a top team & available for vast majority of games

Yorkshire

Sky Bet odds: 9/4

Last season: 3rd

Overseas: Peter Handscomb (Australia)

Ins: None

Outs: Andrew Gale (retired)

Squad: Gary Ballanace (capt), Jonny Bairstow (wk), Tim Bresnan, Harry Brook, Jack Brooks, Eliot Callis, Karl Carver, Ben Coad, Matthew Fisher, Ryan Gibson, Peter Handscomb, Andrew Hodd (wk), Jack Leaning, Alex Lees, Adam Lyth, Steven Patterson, Liam Plunkett, Azeem Rafiq, Adil Rashid, Jonathon Read (wk), Will Rhodes, Joe Root, Josh Shaw, Ryan Sidebottom, James Wainman, Matthew Waite, Jared Warner, David Willey

Verdict:

Favourites again, but much has changed since the dominant title wins of 2014 and 2015. Last season’s Championship campaign was a pretty disappointing effort given the admittedly sky-high standards set in the previous two years.

Nevertheless, the fact that a disappointing Yorkshire season saw them still fighting for the title on the last afternoon shows they should not be taken lightly. But the loss of inspirational coach Jason Gillespie, coupled with Andrew Gale swapping captaincy for coaching to replace him means they have to be taken on this year.

There are just too many unknown quantities involved now with a side that didn’t excel last year. An injury to Jack Brooks – leading wicket-taker among fast bowlers in Division One last year - is another early-season concern.

They have, though, made an excellent overseas signing in Aussie Test batsman Peter Handscomb. He has started his Test career superbly – currently averaging 54 after eight games – and scored over 400 runs in first four Sheffield Shield games for Victoria in 2016/17. He has an idiosyncratic technique and a superb temperament. He’s a good age, turning 26 at the end of April, is available most of the season and should score an absolute stack of runs.

Middlesex

Sky Bet odds: 7/2

Last season: Champions

Overseas: Adam Voges (Australia)

Ins: None

Outs: Max Holden (Northants, loan)

Squad: Adam Voges (capt), Martin Andersson, Andrew Balbirnie (wk), Nick Compton, Stephen Eskinazi (wk), Steven Finn, James Franklin, James Fuller, Nick Gubbins, James Harris, Tom Helm, Ryan Higgins, Dawid Malan, Eoin Morgan, Tim Murtagh, Ravi Patel, Harry Podmore, Ollie Rayner, Sam Robson, Toby Roland-Jones, George Scott, John Simpson (wk), Nathan Sowter, Paul Stirling, Robbie White (wk)

Verdict:

Champions in the most dramatic of circumstances on the final day of last season, Toby Roland-Jones taking the last three wickets of the season in consecutive balls to rip the title from Somerset’s grasp, and continued their flair for the dramatic with a one-wicket victory over the MCC in Abu Dhabi last week after giving up a first-innings lead in excess of 150.

They have very much kept the gang together for this season. The batting has a nice mix of youth and experience, flair and doggedness, while John Simpson remains one of the most under-rated keeper-batsmen in the game. Only Keaton Jennings scored more Division One runs than Nick Gubbins last year, and ‘The Next Strauss’ can be trusted not to suffer any sophomore blues after his breakthrough summer. The seam bowling is superb, with Tom Helm tipped for a breakthrough year after a fine winter with the England Lions. Ollie Rayner may not be the most exciting spinner around but is among the most reliable – as well as being an excellent slipper – and Australian captain Adam Voges has seen it all in a stellar first-class career.

The biggest problem for Middlesex may once again be Lord’s, whose turgid tracks contributed greatly to a zero in the loss column last season but very nearly stymied their title challenge at the last, with some final-day machinations required to set up Yorkshire’s ultimately doomed chase for victory.

Surrey

Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Last season: 5th

Overseas: Kumar Sangakkara (Sri Lanka), Aaron Finch (Australia)

Ins: Mark Stoneman (Durham), Scott Borthwick (Durham)

Outs: Steven Davies (Somerset), Gary Wilson (Derbyshire), James Burke (Leicestershire, loan)

Squad: Gareth Batty (capt), Zafar Ansari, Scott Borthwick, Rory Burns, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Jade Dernbach, Matthew Dunn, Aaron Finch, Ben Foakes (wk), Mark Footitt, Arun Harinath, Aneesh Kapil, Conor McKerr, Stuart Meaker, Matthew Pillans, Ollie Pope (wk), Ravi Rampaul, Jason Roy, Kumar Sangakkara (wk), Dom Sibley, Mark Stoneman, Freddie van den Bergh, Amar Virdi

Verdict:

Surrey are nearly always too short in just about any ante-post county cricket market, and there’s no escaping the fact that this is true once again. They were mid-table last year on their return to the top flight, never seriously involved in the title fight.

It’s a shame, really, that this squad is Surrey’s rather than one of the less glamorous counties where they might be a live outsider at a backable price. Because there is an awful lot to like about Surrey this year. Mark Stoneman and Scott Borthwick arrive from Durham, a significant improvement to a top order already boasting all-time great class in the form of Kumar Sangakkara and the likes of Rory Burns and England one-day star Jason Roy.

The Curran brothers continue to improve and it would be a huge shock if the season ends without full England honours for at least one of the pair. There are other pace options in the form of Jade Dernbach, Stuart Meaker and experienced West Indian Ravi Rampaul, with England spinners Gareth Batty and Zafar Ansari rounding out the attack.

For the first time in a while, Surrey look genuinely equipped for a title challenge. But surely not at this price.

Warwickshire

Sky Bet odds: 11/2

Last season: 6th

Overseas: Jeetan Patel (New Zealand)

Ins: Olly Stone (Northants)

Outs: Richard Jones (Leicestershire), Laurie Evans (Sussex), Recordo Gordon (released)

Squad: Ian Bell (capt), Mark Adair, Tim Ambrose (wk), Liam Banks, Keith Barker, Rikki Clarke, Sam Hain, Oliver Hannon-Dalby, Ateeq Javid, Matt Lamb, Alex Mellor, George Panayi, Jeetan Patel, Ed  Pollock, William Porterfield, Josh Poysden, Boyd Rankin, Sunny Singh, Olly Stone, Aaron Thomason, Jonathan Trott, Andy Umeed, Ian Westwood, Chris Woakes, Chris Wright

Verdict:

Warwickshire are perhaps fortunate to be rated fourth favourites here, but it’s hard to doubt the quality they possess. Last season they had statistically the best bowling attack in the land, boasting two of the top four wicket-takers in Division One (plus Chris Woakes, who took 23 at 17 apiece in the five games he was able to play between England duties) and securing 44 bowling bonus points – two more than any other county and seven more than champions Middlesex.

But the batting flopped. Ludicrously for a side able to call on two of England’s best Test batsmen of the last decade in Jonathan Trott and Ian Bell, no batsman reached 1,000 Championship runs. Jeetan Patel, having regained his place in the New Zealand Test team, is a guaranteed wicket-taker and solid bet to retain top bowler honours.

The bowling will secure the three or four wins needed to keep the Bears out of relegation danger, but unless the batting picks up dramatically – to be fair there is no reason why both Bell and Trott shouldn’t excel – then another mid-table season awaits. Too short at the prices, yet equally offering no appeal at 12s to finish bottom.

Somerset

Sky Bet odds: 8/1

Last season: Runners-up

Overseas: Dean Elgar (South Africa)

Ins: Steven Davies (Surrey), George Bartlett

Outs: Alex Barrow (released), Chris Rogers (retired)

Squad: Tom Abell (capt), Jim Allenby, George Bartlett, Dominic Bess, Josh Davey, Ryan Davies (wk), Steven Davies (wk), Dean Elgar, Ben Green, Lewis Gregory, Tim Groenewald, James Hildreth, Adam Hose, Jack Leach, Michael Leask, Johann Myburgh, Craig Overton, Jamie Overton, Tim Rouse, Ollie Sale, Peter Trego, Marcus Trescothick, Roelof van der Merwe, Paul van Meekeren, Max Waller, Sam Wyatt-Haines

Verdict:

Last year’s unlucky runners-up surely have to be the value call here. Ifs and buts are no good, but had the final round of fixtures thrown up anything other than Middlesex v Yorkshire then Somerset would now be celebrating their first title challenge. As it is, the winner-takes-all nature of that one meant Somerset were almost certainly doomed despite an outrageous run-in in which the Cidermen won five and drew two of their last seven to come within an ace of glory.

Their long-suffering fans may not have much longer to wait, though. While there is previous for Somerset having a touch of the Liverpools – next season will be our season – there are clear grounds to believe this year really could be the one.

The batting is strong and deep. South Africa opener Dean Elgar has all the incentive one needs to perform given the Proteas’ Test series with England in the second half of the summer, while the bowling attack is excellent. Somerset bowlers accounted for 15 of the 19 Middlesex wickets to fall in the Champion County match last week, with Craig Overton, Lewis Gregory and – crucially – Jack Leach and his remodelled action all looking in fine fettle.

Somerset lost out by a whisker in a desperately close three-way battle last time out, and it can surely only be their history of near misses that can justify prices more than double those of their two rivals last season and still significantly bigger than sides they were demonstrably superior to in Surrey and Warwickshire. This really could be their year.

Hampshire

Sky Bet odds: 10/1

Last season: 8th

Overseas: George Bailey (Australia)

Ins: Asher Hart (Durham), Kyle Abbott (South Africa, Kolpak), Rilee Rossouw (South Africa, Kolpak), Fraser Hay

Outs: Adam Wheater (Essex), Andy Carter (retired), James Tomlinson (retired), Joe Weatherley (Kent, loan)

Squad: James Vince (capt), James Adams, Tom Alsop (wk), George Bailey, Gareth Berg, Michael Carberry, Mason Crane, Liam Dawson, Fidel Edwards, Sean Ervine, Jake Goodwin, Asher Hart, Fraser Hay, Lewis McManus (wk), Rilee Rossouw, Will Smith, Ryan Stevenson, Brad Taylor, Reece Topley, Brad Wheal, Chris Wood

Verdict:

The immensely fortunate beneficiaries of Durham’s draconian punishments, Hampshire will have to improve markedly on 2016 if they are to stay up on merit this time round.

They have undeniably recruited well, if controversially. The flurry of Brexit-beating Kolpak players is likely to be one of the talking points of the county summer, and Hampshire have picked up two of the best. Rilee Rossouw was playing for South Africa as recently as October last year, while for seamer Kyle Abbott it’s even more recent. He played Test cricket this year before taking the county coin, and only last November was taking a match-winning 6/77 with the new ball against Australia in Hobart. Then there’s overseas signing George Bailey, whose batting technique now appears to be some kind of performance art but who nevertheless continued to plunder runs – 839 at a tick under 60 in the Sheffield Shield season just gone, including a career-best 200 not out against New South Wales in February.

Captain James Vince has a point to prove after his England flop and remains a batsman of prodigious talent. But in a top flight strengthened by the reduction to eight teams, it’s going to be a tough ask to stay out of the bottom two. A three-way scrap with Lancashire and Essex likely awaits.

Lancashire

Sky Bet odds: 12/1

Last season: 7th

Overseas: Ryan McLaren (South Africa)

Ins: Shivnarine Chanderpaul (West Indies, Kolpak), Dane Vilas (South Africa, Kolpak), Brooke Guest

Outs: Gavin Griffiths (Leicestershire), Luis Reece (Derbyshire), Nathan Buck (Northants), Tom Smith (retired), George Edwards (released), Alviro Petersen (released)

Squad: Steven Croft (capt), James Anderson, Tom Bailey, Karl Brown, Jos Buttler (wk), Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Glen Chapple, Jordan Clark, Alex Davies (wk), Brooke Guest (wk), Haseeb Hameed, Kyle Jarvis, Rob Jones, Simon Kerrigan, Danny Lamb, Toby Lester, Arron Lilley, Liam Livingstone, Saqib Mahmood, Ryan McLaren, Matthew Parkinson, Stephen Parry, Luke Procter, Dane Vilas (wk)

Verdict:

Seventh place last year, and that looks the likeliest outcome again for a middling Lancashire squad. Hampshire’s relegation reprieve last year may ultimately be what keeps Lancashire in the top flight this time around.

There has been plenty of winter change at Old Trafford, which – as across the Pennines – makes for uncertain times. Coach Ashley Giles has returned to Warwickshire, leading to another Pennine parallel as a hugely respected recent player and captain takes over coaching duties, in the form of Glen Chapple. Another former Lancashire player, Mark Chilton, will assist.

Unlike at Headingley, there has also been significant churn in the playing squad, with injuries forcing talented all-rounder Tom Smith into retirement at just 31. Former South Africa batsman Alviro Petersen is the most high-profile of a glut of other departures.

The incomings, though, are undeniably eye-catching. Veteran West Indies legend Shivnarine Chanderpaul comes in on a Kolpak, as does South African keeper-batsman Dane Vilas. Good signings both – as is overseas pro Ryan McLaren – but it’s hard to see them achieving anything much more in four-day cricket this season than mere survival.

Essex

Sky Bet odds: 16/1

Last season: Winners, Div 2

Overseas: Neil Wagner (New Zealand, until June), Mohammad Amir (Pakistan, from June 19)

Ins: Adam Wheater (Hampshire), Simon Harmer (South Africa, Kolpak)

Outs: Graham Napier (retired), David Masters (retired), Thomas Moore (released), Matthew Cross (released), Jaik Mickleburgh (released)

Squad: Ryan ten Doeschate (capt), Mohammad Amir, Aaron Beard, Ravi Bopara, Nick Browne, Varun Chopra, Alastair Cook, Matt Dixon, James Foster (wk), Simon Harmer, Dan Lawrence, Aron Nijjar, Jamie Porter, Matt Quinn, Callum Taylor, Kishen Velani, Neil Wagner, Paul Walter, Tom Westley, Adam Wheater (wk), Ashar Zaidi

Verdict:

Promoted in some style last season, but the gulf between first and second tiers has surely never been bigger than it is right now, and Essex will have their work cut out.

The retirements of David Masters and Graham Napier robs the bowling attack of vast experience and county knowhow – not to mention quality. Much will depend on the continued development of Jamie Porter – who broke the 50-wicket barrier last year at a sub-30 average – and the efforts of high-class overseas pair Neil Wagner and Mohammad Amir to compensate.

Adam Wheater’s return from Hampshire bolsters the batting, but the real boon here is the projected availability of former England captain Alastair Cook.

With captaincy behind him and a one-day focus for the first half of the summer leading up to the Champions Trophy, Cook could conceivably play as many as nine of Essex’s 14 games. Make no mistake, that is huge. There is no batsman in this division to match him, and the step up to Division One that may affect his team-mates is unlikely to daunt a man with 11,000 Test runs to his name. Last year, Cook played seven Championship games for Essex and scored three hundreds in a total of 673 runs at a tick under 92 each.

Essex may well need something similar from him this year, and it would be foolish to bet against it from a batting machine who may just relish a summer of relative freedom.

Conclusion

Somerset's price simply looks wrong given how close they went last season - in many other campaigns they would have done enough to get over the line. Their bowling attack is arguably the best in the division, while the batting is far from a weakness. At around 8/1 they are considerably bigger than both Surrey and Warwickshire but shouldn't be. Favourites Yorkshire can be taken on and I see no reason why Somerset won't mount another strong title bid.

The progress of Jamie Porter and Tom Helm will be fun to watch but neither appeals at the prices (20/1 and 40/1 respectively) in the top wicket-taker betting.

However, I do like Peter Handscomb in the top-bat market at 28/1. The Aussie is already averaging 54 in Tests and arrives at Yorkshire after an impressive Sheffield Shield season. Playing for one of the better teams and oozing class, he should fill his boots, so much so that I'm not too concerned by his promotion to Australia's ODI team - one which means he's now likely to miss two Championship games in June. That's built into the price at 28/1 and I can still see him challenging at the top of runcharts.

  ·  A reminder that our Division Two preview can be found by clicking here.

Posted at 0730 BST on 04/04/17.