Our tipster Dave Tickner has a top bowler bet for the second Champions Trophy semi-final between India and Bangladesh.
Recommended bets: Champions Trophy SFs
1pt Pakistan to beat England at 5/2 – just too big a price to ignore despite England’s obvious class
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We’re down to the last four of the Champions Trophy, and it’s fair to say few would have expected a one-day tournament in England in June to produce three sub-continent semi-finalists.
India progressing from Group B raises few eyebrows, but it’s certainly a shock to see them joined by Pakistan and Bangladesh in the knockout stages.
Bangladesh may have had some good fortune along the way via their no-result against Australia, but they cashed in with a sensational victory over New Zealand and in truth gave England a better game than either of the World Cup finalists from two years ago, who both crash out here at the first hurdle.
While England romped Group A with three victories, Group B was far tighter with all four teams winning one and losing one of their first two to set up virtual quarter-finals. Virtual knockout games turned out to cause just as much consternation for South Africa as official ones, and they were thrashed by India, who now edge outright favouritism due to an easier semi-final assignment, although they will surely cede that position should England see off Pakistan.
For their part, Pakistan lived up to all the clichés that surround them – unpredictable, mercurial, sometimes brilliant, often their own worst enemies – and that was all just in a fraught 'quarter-final' win over Sri Lanka on Sunday.
They now face England in what looks sure to be a doozy at Cardiff on Wednesday.
There were 2,784 runs scored in the five-match series between these two last year, including England’s record-shattering 444-3 at Trent Bridge.
You wouldn’t rule out another run-fest here, and if that is the case then it is undoubtedly advantage England.
But these sides have both bowled superbly well in this tournament. Pakistan’s varied seam attack always keeps batsmen thinking, while England will be delighted at the way the likes of Mark Wood, Liam Plunkett and Adil Rashid have performed given understandable pre-tournament concerns about their bowlers’ ability to match the efforts of the batsmen.
If this does turn out not to be a purely batsman-dominated contest – and it should be noted that the only other 300-plus scores in that series last year came in Cardiff when Pakistan successfully chased England’s 302-9 with 10 balls to spare – then Pakistan are way overpriced at 5/2.
They can’t match England’s firepower with the bat, and unlike against, say, India or Australia or South Africa then if the hosts get 350 batting first here the game is won. But Pakistan possess an attack capable of spiking England’s guns.
They have already done it to high-powered South Africa in this tournament; this is not the foregone conclusion the odds suggest.
Elsewhere, Stan James offer a six-man ‘best economy rate’ market where Mark Wood is third favourite at 4/1. He should be shorter.
His tournament economy rate is not only better than the five men he is bracketed with here (Adil Rashid, Moeen Ali, Mohammad Amir, Imad Wasim and Hasan Ali) but is better than anyone in the tournament to have bowled more than two overs.
He also has an in-built advantage over three of his five rivals in not having to bowl at England and is improving as the event goes on having taken 1-32 from nine and 4-33 from 10 in his last two games.
If Pakistan do have to go after the bowlers, it’s far likelier they will target England’s spinners than a slippery quick like Wood. That may well bring Rashid and Moeen wickets, but in this market that doesn’t matter.
It’s worth noting that if any of the six don’t bowl at least two overs they will be considered a non-runner and Rule 4 applies, but the only player remotely likely to fall foul of that is Moeen. Wood and the three Pakistanis have all bowled at least 25 overs in their three matches to date, while Rashid bowled his full allocation in both games since inexplicably being left out of the opener against Bangladesh.
The other semi-final - which takes place on Thursday - features an even stronger favourite in India, and again the temptation is to side with the impressive underdog at fancy prices.
But Bangladesh have frozen in the past against India on the biggest stage with victory in sight, and that has to be the fear in what is arguably the biggest game in the Tigers’ history.
They undoubtedly have the talent to make mockery of 4/1 quotes, with three of their batsmen already recording centuries in this tournament and a varied bowling attack at their disposal, but I can’t shake the idea that this one will be a blowout.
The bet in this one for me is Taskin Ahmed at 9/2 to be Bangladesh’s top bowler. It may only need two wickets to take this – one could even do it if India are chasing a small total – and his record is solid.
He has picked up at least two wickets in more than half of his 27 ODIs to date, and in five of his last nine including three- and four-wicket hauls.
It’s not a max-bet situation, but his record suggests he should be nearer to 7/2 than 9/2 and he’s worth a small-stake interest here.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1820 BST on 13/06/17.
