ICC Champions Trophy betting tips: Player markets preview

Recommended bets: ICC Champions Trophy player markets

1pt e.w. Tamim Iqbal top Champions Trophy batsman at 100/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) – superb record since World Cup; those who can match it are 20/1 or shorter

1pt e.w. Eoin Morgan to hit most sixes at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3) – only Martin Guptill has more ODI sixes since the World Cup

1.5pt e.w. Kagiso Rabada top Champions Trophy bowler at 18/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) – seven wickets in three games against England, and world’s top bowler is in easier first-round group

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There are two ways to go in the top batsman market for the ICC Champions Trophy. Either bet big on worthy favourite David Warner, or look for value elsewhere.

In the two years since the World Cup, Warner has been by far the most prolific 50-over batsman in the world, with his 1899 runs over 100 more than his nearest challenger and his average of 65.48 better than anyone else to have scored 1000 or more runs. Warner has plundered nine centuries, three more than anyone else, and of those in the four-figure club only Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes and AB de Villiers have scored their runs quicker.

With Australia priced to reach at least the semi-finals, there will be far worse 8/1 favourites in markets like these, while there’s even a bit of 17/2 on offer if you’re going win only.

But I’m going in search of value further down the list with Bangladesh opener Tamim Iqbal. There are negatives, the most obvious of which is the likelihood of the Tigers going out at the first stage. They are also in the tougher first-round group alongside England, Australia and New Zealand.

However, his record in the last two years means three-figure quotes here are just too big.

Here is a full list of players to have scored more runs at a better average than Tamim since the last World Cup: David Warner, Joe Root, AB de Villiers, Faf du Plessis, Martin Guptill.

During that time, Tamim has plundered 1325 runs at 55.20 in 27 innings with four centuries and eight further 50-plus scores. He’s finally found the consistency to match the talent that has been evident for a decade.

He also has fond memories of playing in England – albeit his best returns have come in Test rather than 50-over cricket here – and could easily bat his way into at least a place here. Four years ago when the tournament was played in England with the exact same format Rohit Sharma needed only 177 runs to land place money. Now the game has changed since then, but it does show how a batsman can gatecrash the top of the list without necessarily needing to reach the knockout stages.

Tamim’s recent ODI innings (most recent first) not only highlight his new-found consistency but also show that something around the 200-run mark in three games is no forlorn hope: 65, 47, 23, 64*, 4, 127, 59, 16, 38, 45, 14, 17, 118, 20, 80, 73

Whereas the top batsman market has a fully justifiable short-price favourite, the same cannot be said of the most sixes market, where Chris Lynn surely takes up way too much of the book at 5/1. Yes, the Australian is quite probably the game’s purest current ball-striker, but he is also an international novice. He has played only six games of international cricket, only one of them in this format. Indeed, he has played only 40 games of List A cricket in his entire career and has never scored a century in the format.

His reputation has been built in the Big Bash and IPL, but there is just no evidence in 50-over cricket to justify favouritism and at such a price.

Lynn has hit 36 sixes in those 40 List A games; Martin Guptill and Eoin Morgan have each hit more than that in ODIs alone since the last World Cup, and in fewer games.

Either look a far better bet at 16/1 and 25/1 respectively, but it’s the England captain who gets our money.

Morgan’s behind three other members of England’s top six in the betting, and the numbers simply don’t stack up to justify that.

With 53 sixes in 38 innings since the World Cup, Morgan leaves even Jos Buttler (39 in 31) and Ben Stokes (38 in 30) trailing. Guptill (60 in 35) is the only person who can match him for numbers, while on sixes per innings Rohit Sharma (29 in 18) is the only other batsman to come close to that pair from a sizeable sample size. With renowned big hitters – and far shorter-priced – men like AB de Villiers and David Warner boasting records of 34 off 31 and 32 off 31 respectively, it becomes clear just how much respect Guptill and Morgan deserve in this market.

Guptill is perfectly backable at 16s, but with England taken as slightly likelier to reach the knockout stages, it’s the 25/1 on Morgan that just about shades it.

In the top bowler market I’m going to keep it nice and simple and back the best bowler in the world on current form in conditions that he has shown suit him down to the ground.

Seven wickets in three games against England have seen Kagiso Rabada leapfrog Imran Tahir at the top of the rankings and I’m perfectly happy to get involved at 18/1 here.

The 22-year-old has long been touted for greatness and could wreak havoc against a couple of brittle batting line-ups in Group B. South Africa are long odds-on to reach at least the semi-finals, and Rabada is almost certain to give you at least a run for your money having gone wicketless only once in his last 15 ODIs, taking 27 wickets in that time.

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 Posted at 1930 BST on 30/05/17.