Get the latest in-play betting advice from Richard Mann ahead of the final day of a finely-poised first Ashes Test at Edgbaston.
History looks set to repeat itself in Birmingham on Tuesday, with the first Ashes Test poised to reach a thrilling climax after four absorbing days of Test cricket so far. Chasing 281 to win, Australia now require a further 174 runs for victory. England need seven wickets.
One of the most most iconic Ashes moments came on this very ground in 2005, when England clung on for a famous two-run win over Ricky Ponting's great Australia side in arguably the best Ashes series ever played. On what we've seen so far, both this Test and the series as a whole might yet match those heady heights.
With runs on the board and an Edgbaston pitch that is now taking spin, England are overnight favourites at 11/10 with Sky Bet, Australia only a shade bigger at 6/5. The exchanges are more pro-England, with Australia available to back at 2.32 at the time of writing. I reckon Sky Bet have that right. In fact, I'd have Australia marginal favourites.
While there is turn on offer, Moeen Ali is patently struggling with a nasty blister on his spinning finger which will do nothing to help him improve on an already dismal record against Australia. From what I could glean from Moeen's seven overs on Monday night, he was largely trying to roll the ball out of his fingers rather than rip it hard off the index finger. You have to feel for him, but the Australians shouldn't fear him.
And they won't. The biggest threat will of course come from Stuart Broad, Ollie Robinson and James Anderson, but only the former can claim to have posed a consistent threat on an Edgbaston pitch that has offered very little movement off the surface, or indeed by the way of conventional swing. Pat Cummins was exceptional for his four second-innings wickets, but he is a good deal quicker and just a more complete bowler than any of that trio. I don't foresee England's seamers having the same level of success unless conditions change.
That said, I do expect England to bowl better as a unit, the seamers anyway. Anderson might not have the pace of Cummins, and Broad the skill, but these are vastly-experienced performers whose accuracy is unmatched. Regardless of the fields set by captain Ben Stokes, expect them to string lots of dots together and make Usman Khawaja and co work for every run. Pressure is a big man in nervy run chases, and bringing the run-rate to a standstill – Bazball or not – often brings wickets.
In return, Khawaja – currently unbeaten on 34 – is sure to set his stall out for another long vigil and hope the likes of Travis Head, Cameron Green and Alex Carey can play more aggressive roles to whittle down the target. Khawaja has appeared unbreakable so far, and is the perfect foil for that aggressive middle-order. If England can remove him early, the dynamic changes.
But Australia will know that if they can weather the early Anderson/Broad examination, they are only one big partnership away from victory. With the new ball not available for another 50 overs, Australia could well break the back of the run chase before then, if not complete it.
The final potential fly in the ointment for Australia could be the weather. At the moment, Birmingham is expected to see plenty of rain on Tuesday, though perhaps not enough to suggest there won't be enough time to force a result.
England will be hoping that when play is possible, there is enough cloud cover to get the ball swinging, just as it did for Australia in twenty minutes before play was abandoned on Sunday afternoon. It's in that scenario when England's seamers would smell blood, and the hosts become strong favourites.
As things stand, there are too many imponderables to advise a bet, for all I do think Australia will win the game if able to bat in similar conditions as England enjoyed on Monday. However, there is no guarantee of that, only that another tense Ashes finish is in the offing.
Day three betting update
No recommended bets
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
An exceptional spell from Pat Cummins and Scott Boland has earned Australia a big opportunity at Edgbaston and it's now hard to see them failing to win providing Sunday's weather doesn't reappear on Tuesday and deny them that opportunity.
Australia have a head start in what's a one-innings shootout and they've the advantage in the spin department, not least because Moeen Ali injured his spinning finger after being asked to carry a heavy load during the first innings.
Nathan Lyon gives Australia a big edge there and should troubled skies remain, we've seen already how vulnerable the England middle order has looked in seaming conditions with the exception of Joe Root, who was under big pressure arriving at the crease and may have been glad of the rain's reprieve.
Remember, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head combined for just 66 runs in the first innings and still Australia have moved in front so it really does look to be as straightforward as the tourists versus the weather, with England far too short to entertain at 11/8.
Australia are much preferred at the same price, the idea of batting last no longer such a concern as it once was, but there's more rain in the forecast and as such we'll sit tight for now.
Day two betting update
No recommended bets
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Usman Khawaja's first Test century in England helped Australia turn the tide on day two of the first Ashes Test, which they ended as 6/5 favourites with Sky Bet.
England twice went odds-on in places, first when Stuart Broad struck twice in two balls and again when Ben Stokes took the wicket of Steve Smith, but the hosts were out to 2/1 at stumps, with the draw still a big factor at 9/4.
Sky Bet make Khawaja 100/30 to complete a double-hundred having reached an unbeaten 126. Alex Carey is alongside him at the crease on 52 and the tourists are odds-on to pass 400 runs in their first innings.
Day one betting update
1pt Australia to score 500+ runs in the first innings at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
What an exhilarating opening day of the Ashes. The pre-series hype meant expectation was even greater than usual, but the cricket certainly delivered with England posting 393/8 from only 78 overs before Ben Stokes made a typically bold declaration late in the day. Australia survived the remaining four overs to finish on 14/0, trailing by 379.
The merits of that declaration will only be fully known at the end of the match, but as much as Australians might scoff, Bazball well and truly delivered – and not just on the entertainment front. Australia were visibly rattled in the opening exchanges as Zak Crawley began with a crunching cover drive for four off the very first ball of the series.
Joe Root's masterful unbeaten century (118) and 78 from Jonny Bairstow (78) then cashed in later in the day after Australia had briefly threatened to bowl England out for under 300.
Nevertheless, having lost what still feels like a big toss, Australia will be pleased to have limited the first-innings damage to under 400 – for all Stokes' declaration allowed them to do so – and Stokes' decision would have been made in the hope his bowlers could strike a late blow, or even two, to ensure it was very much England's day.
As it is, Australia will come back on Saturday knowing the pitch will remain very good for batting for the next few days at least, and given the strength in their batting line-up – Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne and Travis Head are currently the top three ranked Test batsmen in world cricket – they will be confident they can go past England's score.
Given how good conditions were for batting on day one, England's total is probably under par and we must factor in that Moeen Ali, whose record with the ball against Australia is poor, will be tasked with delivering the chief spin threat on a surface that offered no swing and only minimal seam movement to the fast bowlers all day.
A predicted change in the weather could turn that on its head, but the pitch is unlikely to alter until much later in the match and a batting unit as strong as the Australian one ought to score big. They certainly won't be in a rush either, and I'm happy to back Australia to score 500+ RUNS IN THE FIRST INNINGS at 9/4 (Sky Bet).
Steve Smith was advised at 4/1 to make a first innings century in the pre-match preview, and that advice certainly still stands having seen conditions in Birmingham. Sky Bet are holding firm with that price.
Preview posted at 1930 BST on 16/06/23
More Ashes content:
- Ashes series preview
- First Ashes Test preview
- Ashes: England's openers braced for acid test
- Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass
- Edgbaston ground guide
- Ashes: New rules at the Toss
- Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
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