Ashes analysis: England and Jonny Bairstow under the microscope after hosts win Headingley thriller

What to do with Jonny Bairstow

It would sum up the series if England were to win the Ashes, despite having the handicap of Jonny Bairstow behind the stumps. At the last count, Bairstow has failed to take five catching chances in the first three games, along with a stumping at Edgbaston.

And those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Bairstow’s confidence with the gloves is clearly shot to bits, as demonstrated by his bailing out of a simple skied chance off Mitchell Starc on Saturday which Harry Brook managed to pull off at the last second, running around from short leg and diving outstretched to complete the catch despite wearing a helmet.

Even more concerning is that it appears to be catching – excuse the pun. The generally reliable Joe Root has started shelling straightforward chances, in stark contrast to Steve Smith and David Warner in the Australia cordon, and there now appears to be a real lack of trust between keeper and first slip.

If England are serious about winning the Ashes, on the flat pitches they have requested, they must accept that creating chances won’t always be easy and that when those chances do come along, they must be taken. That isn’t happening at the moment and to win the series from 2-1 behind, they will highly likely need to take 40 more Australian wickets. A stiff enough task already, but virtually impossible if you need to create 50 chances to do it.

They say that you can judge a team by the fielding and England’s, mainly the catching, is currently not up to scratch and clearly some way below Australia’s standards. That isn’t all Bairstow’s fault, of course, but replacing him with a world-class gloveman like Ben Foakes would certainly help, and bring some calm and confidence to the rest of the slip cordon. It would be a big boost to the bowlers, too.

I do have a great deal of sympathy for Bairstow here. I’ve never felt he was an international class wicket-keeper. It’s the reason England gave the gloves to Jos Buttler a few years back, and then Foakes after Buttler was axed, so to expect the Yorkshireman to return from a terrible leg injury and so long out of the game, and then suddenly bank on him keeping well in an Ashes series, while also recapturing his best batting form, was always a big ask.

I’ve long thought they were asking too much of Bairstow and the non-selection of Foakes has failed miserably. Bairstow isn’t keeping well, nor is he scoring the runs that earned him the vote over Foakes in the first place.

My preference would be for Bairstow to lose the gloves and Foakes return, the former thus allowed to concentrate on his batting that remains capable of driving England to Ashes victory. But that would require Stokes and Brendon McCullum to accept they got this one wrong, and then find a place for Bairstow in a line-up that needs to accommodate an extra bowler if the captain is again unfit to bowl.

Prey on the weak to wear down Cummins

Australia got a glimpse of a future without Nathan Lyon at Headingley, and it wasn’t pretty. Lord’s was the spinner’s 100th consecutive Test match and oh how his team have come to rely on him, tying up one end in the first innings, allowing the quick bowlers to rotate from the opposite end, and then bowling teams out in the second innings.

Despite injury ruling him out of the remainder of the series, Australia initially seemed unperturbed, such was their confidence in Todd Murphy who had impressed in favourable bowling conditions in India earlier in the year. But as Ravi Ashwin has found out, England is much different and doesn’t offer anywhere near the same level of assistance to spinners.

Murphy had little impact at Headingley, significantly less than Lyon at Edgbaston or in the small part he played at Lord’s, and his maiden Ashes wicket came only after Ben Stokes had taken him down and hauled England back from the brink and into a position from which they could mount their subsequent fightback with the ball.

In the 9.3 overs Murphy sent down across both innings, the 22-year-old looked innocuous and though Old Trafford and the Oval might offer more spin, Stokes won’t fear him on this showing, nor England’s strong contingent of right handers to whom Australia captain Pat Cummins is clearly wary of exposing Murphy.

The lack of trust in Murphy in England's run chase on Sunday was telling, and if England can continue to force their way back into the series and the stakes continue to rise, that could really come to hurt Australia. Going forward, it’s hard to imagine Australia won’t play a spinner on two grounds that historically demand the selection of a slow bowler, but that's of no use if Cummins is reluctant to use him.

The ramifications of all of this could be huge for Australia, in particular their captain. Cummins has now played all four Tests on this tour, including the World Test Championship final that preceded the Ashes, and of all the bowlers on either side, only Stuart Broad has delivered more overs.

In Leeds alone, Cummins sent down 18 overs in the first innings and 15 more in the second, despite clearly faltering on Sunday. He simply had nowhere else to turn as Scott Boland once again proved ineffective on another good pitch and Mitchell Starc had got through lots of work himself. Given that plenty of those overs have consisted of back-breaking, short-ball barrages, it's little wonder Cummins’ efforts are starting to take their toll.

Cummins rebuffed such comments when asked about his workload after the match, and injury notwithstanding, he seems likely to play all five matches in the series. But he is only human and if England can bat well when Murphy is entrusted to bowl and force Australia to take him out of the attack as quickly as he enters it, that will mean the over-reliance on Cummins, and also Starc, could be pushed to breaking point.

Does Anderson return for Old Trafford?

England haven’t got all of their selection calls right this summer, as noted by the Jonny Bairstow debate above, but the recalls of Mark Wood and Chris Woakes last week proved to be inspired choices.

Wood was named Man of the Match after bowling with frightening speed throughput to claim seven wickets across the game, along with a couple of crucial cameos with the bat. Woakes picked up three big scalps in each innings and then saw England home with his unbeaten 32 on Sunday.

The express pace Wood brings to the table is priceless, and a good break before Old Trafford gives him enough time to freshen up and get himself ready for another huge match. England will be desperate to have his services again and given they won’t want to be without Woakes’ all-round skills, either, competition for bowling spots has really warmed up.

Having been rested at Headingley, it was widely expected that James Anderson would rotate with Stuart Broad in Manchester, returning for what might well be his last Test match on his home ground, but the latter is now the leading wicket-taker in the series. It’s true that Broad has shouldered a heavy workload so far this summer, but his Ashes pedigree is second to none and I’m sure Australia would be happy to see the back of him for a week.

As such, it’s not clear where Anderson slots back into this team. Josh Tongue outbowled him at Lord’s and is another vying for a recall, while Ollie Robinson does now have time to get himself right having suffered back spasms in Leeds. We know how highly Stokes rates the Sussex seamer, too.

It will certainly make for an interesting selection meeting. Do England really need Woakes and Anderson in the same team, generally offering the same skills with the ball? And can they afford to rest Broad for a must-win match after he has enjoyed a week off since the third Test? And what about the prospect of seeing Wood and Tongue bowl in tandem at Old Trafford on a pitch that generally offers pace and bounce?

Anderson’s series numbers hardly help form a compelling argument – three wickets at an average of 75.33 – but the first innings at Lord’s apart, the pitches have nullified his strengths and he has been unluckier than most when it comes to dropped catches off his bowling.

Remember, too, that Anderson was the number one ranked bowler in the world coming into this series. Perhaps we are jumping the gun to think that one of the greatest bowlers of all time, with 688 Test wickets to his name, is headed for the scrap yard only months after he bowled so magnificently on some of the flattest pitches imaginable in Pakistan.

For what it’s worth, I’d pick Anderson next week. Sometimes you just have to back your best players to deliver in big moments and big matches. This is one such occasion. I don’t think there is a single person in that England dressing room who doesn’t believe Anderson is still the best bowler in the country – and what better place to show that than on his home ground, charging in from a stand named in his honour.

More Ashes content:

• Ashes ground guides: Old Trafford
• Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
• Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass

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