England v Pakistan third Test free betting preview and tips

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3pts No century to be scored in the match at 7/2

2pts Mohammad Abbas top Pakistan first innings bowler at 9/4

Club cricketers across the land have spent countless Saturdays trudging around in the rain hoping the British Summer will finally play ball.

The old guard - those who have seen it all before - usually profess to know best: 'If the rain is coming from behind the river, we won't get back on today,' while the younger generation, like with everything else, tend to put their faith in smartphones and weather apps. I know a man who pays big bucks to access 'the best weather app on the market.' An illuminated mass of maps and numbers designed in Germany. 'German efficiency' he calls it, but it rarely knows when it's going to rain or not.

I'm not sure just how much faith Joe Root and Azhar Ali put into weather apps but the two captains certainly spent the majority of the second Test watching the rain fall on the Ageas Bowl. In fact, less than 150 overs of play was possible across five days and both teams will be hoping for some sunshine in Southampton when the series finale gets underway at the same ground on Friday.

The early forecast is for better weather but, given just how much rain the Ageas Bowl has endured of late, it's hard to imagine the groundsman will be afforded the hot weather needed to dry out the square sufficiently in order to produce the type of surface seen when the West Indies beat England on day five here in July.

I'd expect there to be plenty of moisture in whatever surface is produced this week and, just as we saw in what little play was possible in the second Test, batting could be difficult.

With that in mind, it seems fair to assume that the seamers will dominate in the early part of the game at least, and a low scoring match could lend itself to no century being scored across the five days. Indeed, despite Old Trafford producing a really good cricket wicket for the series opener, Shan Masood's first-inning hundred remains the only one from either side so far.

In the three-match series between England and the West Indies earlier in the summer, there were only two centuries scored in the whole series - both coming at Old Trafford - and with two excellent seam attacks locking horns on what should be a tasty surface, I'm happy to take the 7/2 on offer that no century will be scored in the match.

The one slight note of caution would be in regards to how good the drainage tends to be at Test venues nowadays, but the Ageas Bowl took a real soaking last week and the groundsman will surely have his work cut out preparing anything like a batting paradise only a few days on.

Overhead conditions are likely to play a part, too, and England might decide that spinner Dom Bess is surplus to requirements having not been needed to bowl in Pakistan's only innings in the second Test.

It would be nice to think England could retain faith in a young spinner who is learning his craft and didn't enjoy the rub of the green when having three chances spurned off his bowling in the second Test. However, the hosts will be keen to make room for Jofra Archer to return to the starting XI and Sam Curran's batting ability, along with James Anderson's return to form in the second Test, will mean all three will be hopeful of playing here.

Such an eventuality would mean England line up with five frontline seamers in Southampton, or even conclude that Curran and Bess must make way for Archer and another specialist batsman, so striking a bet in any top bowler market for the hosts is fraught with danger while the make-up of their side is so unclear. That isn't the case with Pakistan who will be expected to field the same attack that has served them well so far, with their three premier seamers joining leg spinner Yasir Shah.

I'm not sure England will have too much to fear from spin in the first innings in Southampton so, with Shah worth taking on, I reckon Mohammad Abbas is worth a bet at 9/4 given he is a terrific, skilful bowler who excels in conditions that offer something for the seamers.

Abbas - who has taken 15 wickets at an average of 15.93 in four Test matches in England to date - was the pick of Pakistan's attack when returning figures 14-5-28-2 in England's delayed first-innings in the second Test, and his unwavering accuracy and ability to seam the ball both ways should continue to cause England plenty of problems.

Regular readers of this column would know I'm usually keen to have Ollie Pope on side in some form - particularly with Ben Stokes again absent - but I'm not expecting batting to be easy in the coming days and as such, am happy to sit out the top batsman markets.

No century and a plenty of wickets for Abbas will do for me.

Posted at 1315 BST on 19/08/20

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