2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Green Book in Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at 25/1 (BetVictor - NRNB)
Venetia Williams is enjoying a pretty relentless season of success and GREEN BOOK – her only entry across the three Grade One novice hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival – looks well worth a bet at big prices.
He’s 66/1 in places for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle over two miles, five furlongs, but I’d be amazed if the classy Flat stayer didn’t end up contesting the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, and the 25/1 NRNB on offer makes plenty of appeal (25/1 general, without the money-back safety net).
A son of Derby winner Authorized, Green Book showed some promising signs in his youth under Brian Ellison before moving to France where his wait for a breakthrough win of any kind was extended to a dozen starts in total.
The frustrations continued as he was a beaten favourite on hurdling debut – and first public outing for Williams – when second in a Hereford maiden, but it transpired that he was more than a little unfortunate there as he split Herbiers, who has since won three handicap hurdles, and Saint Palais, who is now rated 145 after three subsequent chase wins of his own.
Green Book duly went one better when landing a gamble in the Chester Plate at their big spring meeting last May and held his form very well in marathon races on the level after that. The run of solid form included a fine fifth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he again split a couple of really smart types in Stag Horn and Morando, who were rated far superior at the time.
Stag Horn has since gone hurdling and is now one of the shortest-priced, British-trained horses in the Albert Bartlett picture at around 14/1 having won last month’s Grade Two Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick, and it’s not hard to argue Green Book should be a similar sort of price.
He’s taken a different route to a potential shot at Grade One glory, but he has made stealthy progress through the ranks and looked better than ever when winning the Grade Three Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown earlier this month (replay below).
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There’s no getting away from the fact that even his revised BHA rating (137) will leave the horse with plenty to find in a race like the Albert Bartlett, but there won’t be many in here clearly progressing quite as rapidly as he, and I love the fact he’s got loads of experience and conditioning under his belt, including in big fields.
Williams highlighted the fact he wasn’t qualified for the Pertemps Final – a race the trainer won with a not too dissimilar type in Kayf Aramis back in 2009 – in the aftermath of Sandown, so perhaps the Coral Cup might come into her thinking, but I’d be concerned about two miles and five furlongs on the Old Course not providing enough of a stamina test.
The Albert Bartlett - run as race three on the New Course on the final day of the Festival - makes loads of sense at this stage, although the reason I'm keen to take the NRNB price is that Friday's Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle might also become an option, the horse having won for conditional rider Ned Fox earlier on in the season.
Green Book wouldn’t want lively ground, but that seems fairly unlikely even at this early stage and I’d much rather take a chance at 25s in the Grade One than get sucked in by those nearer the top of the market with top-class form in Ireland.
One who seemingly fluffed his lines at the Dublin Racing Festival is Joseph O’Brien’s Eric Bloodaxe, who cut out quite sharply in the two and three-quarter mile Grade One fought out between Minella Cocooner, Minella Crooner and Hollow Games.
However, it’s worth noting Eric Bloodaxe flopped (11/4, seventh of eight) in the bumper won by Appreciate It around Leopardstown at the same meeting in 2020, so he’s one to keep in mind having been pushed right out to as big as 33/1 for Cheltenham.
If O’Brien is happy enough to bring him, and the Albert Bartlett is his only realistic target, I’ll be looking to try and get him on side in some capacity as well.
Published at 1000 GMT on 16/02/22
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