- Matt's Value Bet column, published on the eve of all major race televised meetings, was +39pts for the first two months of 2022
Value Bet Cheltenham tips: Tuesday March 15
1pt e.w. Coeur Sublime in 2.10 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Discordantly in 2.50 Cheltenham at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Doctor Duffy in 2.50 Cheltenham at 40/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Doctor Brown Bear in 4.50 Cheltenham at 25/1 (bet365)
Already advised
Arkle outsider stands out among G1 highlights
As an all-round package none of the other days get close to Tuesday for entertainment value at the Cheltenham Festival and although heading into day one with a promising antepost position, it could still be one of the most prolific for this column in terms of additional bets.
In the Sky Bet Supreme, there’s no escaping Constitution Hill is more style over substance at this stage – the horse he beat 12 lengths in the Tolworth having been last of 14 from a mark of 133 in the Betfair Hurdle on his next start – and there must be a chance Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon are so wound up they run at least some of their race before the tapes even go back.
Kilcruit is the horse I fear but long-range fancy Mighty Potter will hopefully benefit from the two Willie Mullins horses setting a strong gallop and if his jumping keeps him in the game long enough, I’m convinced Gordon Elliott’s horse will come home better than anything.
Hopefully he can get things off to a positive start but there’s one at a bigger price to be backing in the Sporting Life Arkle and that’s the Henry De Bromhead-trained COEUR SUBLIME.
Drying ground and a seriously strong pace set-up courtesy of Gabynako, Saint Sam and stablemate Magic Daze are both in this horse’s favour and it looks a significant pointer that connections have decided to come for the Grade One having appeared to be gearing him up for a crack at the Grand Annual prior to a 10-length beginners’ chase win at Gowran in January.
Perhaps a BHA mark of 151 proved off-putting but I’d take the opposite view and assume De Bromhead thinks he can do some damage here in what looks a very winnable Arkle.
The standout performer in this division, Ferny Hollow, is obviously missing and Coeur Sublime was a very creditable, four-length second to him at Punchestown on chasing debut in December. He finished a lot further behind that rival, and reopposing mare Riviere D’etel, when third at Leopardstown over Christmas, but I’m not sure that was his true running as plenty from the yard were seemingly under the weather at the time.
The lightly-raced seven-year-old hasn't always been the strongest in a finish but looked in great heart (against lesser opposition) wearing a first-time tongue tie last time and that first win of any kind since November 2019 should have done his confidence the world of good. The 14/1 four places makes plenty of appeal.
Take two in highly-competitive Ultima
This year’s Ultima Handicap Chase has a fantastic shape to it with Frodon topping the weights off a mark of 164 and interesting novices Gericault Roque and Oscar Elite among those sneaking in at the bottom - but having to run from out of the handicap as a consequence.
The Irish contingent has been whittled down to seven at the final declaration stage but I still think this could be a rare Ultima for the visitors as DISCORDANTLY bids to become the latest winner to have contested the same race in the previous season.
Un Temps Pour Tout (2017), Beware The Bear (2019) and Vintage Clouds, who was making it fifth time lucky when galloping home in front 12 months ago, had all run in it before winning and Discordantly was a good sixth as a seven-year-old last March on ground that ended up being plenty soft enough for him.
He fell early on when quietly fancied for the Welsh National this winter but got back to winning ways over an extended two miles five furlongs with cheekpieces applied at Leopardstown recently, following a Fairyhouse confidence-booster in February.
The 5lb penalty picked up for winning nine days ago brings him into this on a lovely weight (he can effectively run off his new Irish mark of 143 here) and the headgear is unsurprisingly retained.
I'm going double-handed in the race as I can’t let DOCTOR DUFFY go unbacked with a bit of spring sunshine likely to perk him right up.
He’s a bit of a quirky customer and his jumping won’t be the prettiest but he’s looked like a Cheltenham plot waiting to happen for a number of seasons now, only to finish eighth in Pertemps qualifiers at Punchestown for three years on the trot.
That’s seemingly forced connections down the chasing route this time but he’s more than capable in this sphere too when on song and looked to be running a big race before unseating Liam Quinlan in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last month.
Death Duty went on to win there with Floueur in third and they're among the favourites for this on very similar terms so Charles Byrnes’ horse looks potentially way too big at 40/1.
I’m not in love with the idea of opposing Honeysuckle in the Unibet Champion Hurdle, nor would I particularly like to be laying her at current odds.
Markets ‘betting without’ the favourite should be considered and Saint Roi makes some appeal around the 20/1 mark to be best of the rest if the first-time tongue tie and almost guaranteed strong gallop help his cause, but there are more appealing bets elsewhere.
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle is a competitive event this year but one in which I’m struggling to look too far beyond Telmesomethinggirl and Queens Brook at the top of the market, while the final field for the Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Chase is pretty disappointing especially after long-range fancy Ontheropes unfortunately had to be withdrawn after exercise on Sunday evening.
Bear on the prowl back from a break
The cat is well and truly out of the bag with the Mullins-trained Gaelic Warrior in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle but there have been plenty of surprises in this event down the years including three 33/1 winners, a 40/1 winner and an 80/1 winner in the past decade.
At the prices, I’ll take a chance on DOCTOR BROWN BEAR who has been privately bought by Sean and Bernardine Mulryan and sent to Martin Brassil following a bunch of promising efforts for trainer Brendan Duke before the turn of the year.
The son of Estidhkaar started out over hurdles back in August and has taken his time to warm to jumping but his last two runs have been his best, finishing fourth to big Triumph hope Fil Dor in a Fairyhouse Grade Three before another nice effort when fourth of 18 in a Leopardstown maiden won by Icare Allen, who also heads for Friday’s Grade One.
The first, third, fifth, seventh and 11th from Leopardstown have won six races between them since whereas Doctor Brown Bear – who jumped the last alongside the winner before being outpointed - has been put away with this race in mind, the BHA assessors only giving him 2lb more than the 123 mark he was allotted in Ireland.
Doctor Brown Bear has led or been prominent in most of his starts to date but he tends to settle well and it’s hoped he can stay out of some of the traffic issues which can often materialise in this race.
Yet another sporting a tongue-tie for the first time in public, he looks open to loads of improvement as we head into the spring and the superb Darragh O’Keeffe taking over from a relatively inexperienced 7lb claimer in the saddle can only be deemed a positive switch.
Published at 1605 GMT on 14/03/22
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