Cheltenham Festival analysis: Could Saint Sam step up for the Turners Novices' Chase

By Donn McClean

Horse Racing

Thu February 17, 2022 · 3y ago

Things were simpler in 1995.

Back then, Willie Mullins had just one runner in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Tourist Attraction, where it all began – and he had none in the Sun Alliance Hurdle, while the Albert Bartlett was still 10 years away. Similarly, he had no runner in the Arkle, nor in the Sun Alliance Chase, and there was no such thing as the Turners or the Jewson or the JLT or the Marsh.

There was a sense of certainty about limited runners and three days and 20 races and limited options.

We went through the 2022 Willie Mullins Cheltenham novice hurdlers before the Dublin Racing Festival, and it was likely that Sir Gerhard’s performance there would shine a light on his likely Cheltenham Festival target, Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.

He was impressive in winning at Leopardstown, but we are still not much the wiser. By extension, we are, similarly, not much the wiser about Dysart Dynamo’s Cheltenham target. It looks like Kilcruit is going for the Supreme all right and, of course, they could all go in the Supreme, and the target of one will not definitely be influential in determining the target of the others. But it might be.

Check out all the latest tips, preview, analysis & videos on our dedicated microsite

These are the known unknowns.

There will almost certainly be twists on this road too between now and then, like there were in 2019, when it rained and Klassical Dream ran in the Supreme, not the Ballymore, and danced in. And in 2008, when Fiveforthree ran in the Ballymore, not the Supreme, and brought up a first Willie Mullins Ballymore Hurdle.

Well, it's a similar story with the Willie Mullins novice chasers. It’s looking like Blue Lord in the Arkle, where he could be joined by Ciel De Neige, who, helpfully, doesn’t have an entry in the Turners Chase, and/or Haut En Couleurs and/or Saint Sam, who, unhelpfully, do.

Conventional wisdom suggested that Galopin Des Champs was a staying type – winner of the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ hurdle at last year’s Punchestown Festival – that the Brown Advisory Chase was the obvious Cheltenham Festival race for him. And his jumping in his two chases to date this season has been superb.

But convention has never been part of the Mullins vernacular, and his suggestion that the Turners Chase could be the race for Galopin Des Champs, that he has that type of pace, sent the scribes scurrying. And that would be a race, Bob Olinger v Galopin Des Champs.

The non-runner-no-bet concession is not a fix-all, it is not a blindfolded bettor’s benefit, but it is a significant factor in certain instances, and this is one of them. Like, you don’t know if Saint Sam is going to run in the Arkle or the Turners, but it might be worthwhile getting him on side now anyway, because you can, non-runner-no-bet.

It’s a bit like Wordle: you have the letter, you're just not sure yet where it goes.

Saint Sam was a high-class juvenile hurdler last season. He finished second behind Quilixios in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival, and he proved that he could operate at Cheltenham when he finished second in the Fred Winter Hurdle, hitting the front on the far side on the run to the final flight before giving best only to subsequent Grade 1 winner Jeff Kidder.

Saint Sam was impressive in winning his beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse on his chasing bow in January (replay below). Strong in the market beforehand, his jumping was really good for a debutant, as he made all the running and came away from a talented pair in Thedevilscoachman and El Barra on the run-in.

Watch Race Replay

Unlimited race replays of all UK & Irish racing

He ran well too last time in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown. Again, he set out to make the running. He got in a little tight to the second fence, and to the fourth last, and he clipped the top of the second last, at which point he was passed by Riviere D’Etel and Blue Lord.

He could have faded from there, but he didn’t. He battled back bravely on the inside and he kept on well up the run-in to finish just over four lengths behind his stable companion Blue Lord.

Most of the post-race attention, quite correctly and quite understandably, was focused on Blue Lord and Riviere D’Etel, on who would have won had Riviere D’Etel not made that mistake at the final fence, on the stewards’ inquiry that ensued. Consequently, however, the quality of the performance that Saint Sam put up in finishing third may have gone under the radar.

He should be a player in the Arkle if that race emerges as his target, but it would be very interesting to see him stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time for the Turners Chase. You can argue the case for a step up in trip on breeding, his dam won over an extended two miles over hurdles, and he is by Saint Des Saints, sire of Djakadam and Quito De La Roque and Protektorat and Quel Esprit and Burrows Saint.

You can also argue that, on racing style, he could improve for a step up in trip. He kept on well at Leopardstown last time after being headed, and nowhere was he stronger than on the run to the line at the end of the two-mile-one-furlong beginners’ chase that he won at Fairyhouse.

READ: Matt Brocklebank's latest Cheltenham preview & tips

No five-year-old has ever won the Turners Chase in its 11-year history, but only six have tried, and two of them have gone close: Bristol De Mai finished second to Black Hercules in 2016, and Terrefort finished second to Shattered Love in 2018.

Of course, Bob Olinger is a colossus, and if he is joined in the race by Galopin Des Champs, the Turners Chase could be one of the hottest races of the week. Plans for those two might be influential in determining plans for would-be rivals. But it might not be.

More known unknowns.

www.donnmcclean.com

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?