2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Ontheropes in National Hunt Chase at 14/1 (Sky Bet, NRNB)
With most sound-minded punters drooling over what they witnessed at the Dublin Racing Festival, it’s that time of year when I do my best to look beyond the obvious headline-grabbers and attempt to unearth something which may have gone largely unnoticed.
That’s easier said/written than done, highlighted so succinctly by your host on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast earlier this week: ‘...it’s not just the Leopardstown winners, but a plethora of the beaten horses that you want to be keeping an eye on for Cheltenham too...’
He’s dead right, of course, and the likes of Sea Ducor, Blackbow and Gaillard Du Mesnil all caught my eye with major spring handicaps in mind. The latter was among those left gasping by the strikingly talented Galopin Des Champs, who jumped a little to the right at a number of the 14 fences in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, yet still had more than enough in the tank to win by nine lengths without being extended.
Galopin Des Champs is bound for the top, whether that’s via the Turners Novices’ Chase or Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but 'his' race also witnessed a couple of potential National Hunt Chase hopes apparently dent their claims.
Gordon Elliott’s Fury Road – a Grade One winner over Christmas - was 4/1 with Sky Bet (NRNB) heading into the weekend and emerged as a 7/1 shot for the Festival after a few scruffy jumps ultimately saw him trail home fifth, beaten 55 lengths, while the winner’s stablemate Capodanno – runner-up to Bob Olinger at Punchestown in January – made a mess of the first fence before repeating the dose and unseating Mark Walsh at the fifth.
He eased half a point to 5/1 (with the same firm) for the National Hunt Chase following the mishap, though he could yet run in any of three races, the other options being the Brown Advisory and the Turners.
So when it comes to the pick of the Irish in this division, I get the impression the most significant NH Chase ‘trials’ were possibly run the week before the DRF, the obvious one being the Grade Three at Naas in which Stattler dug deep after the final fence to get the better of Farouk D’alene, the front two pulling 18 lengths-plus clear of 2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier.
A truly-run race on good to yielding ground, this has the look of seriously strong form and Stattler swiftly usurped previous market leader Run Wild Fred on the back of it. Some really good horses have been beaten in that Naas event, including last year’s subsequent NH Chase third Escaria Ten, representing Farouke D’alene’s trainer. Farouke D’alene clearly isn’t one to be writing off, and at 10/1 generally he looks slightly over-priced in relation to the winner.
Focus on experienced Thyestes also-rans
However, that pair have now only had five chase starts between them (Stattler two, Farouke D’alene three) and such inexperience is clearly something that has been a distinct disadvantage in this race over the years.
To put a finer point on it, in the final 10 years of the old ‘four-miler’, every victor bar Grade One-winning Back In Focus had raced four or more times over fences prior to the Festival, and some had a bucket-load of runs under their belt coming into it (chase starts before winning NH Chase): Poker De Sivola 11, Chicago Grey 9, Tea For Three 5, Back In Focus 3, Midnight Prayer 4, Cause Of Causes 10, Minella Rocco 4, Tiger Roll 10, Rathvinden 10, Le Breuil 5).
The race has taken a few twists in more recent seasons and one could be forgiven for thinking as a consequence of the changes the classiest horses have been more likely to rise to the top in spite of experience (or lack thereof), yet the two winners since the reduction in distance and further amendments to the conditions (Ravenhill and Galvin) each had six and seven starts over fences to their name respectively prior to Cheltenham.
Galvin is now among the favourites for the Gold Cup so obviously had the class to back up his experience too, but in general there’s no escaping the fact that having a bit of nous is no bad thing in this race, and that leads me onto Diol Ker and ONTHEROPES, who both contested the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran just a few days before the Stattler-Farouke D’alene dust-up.
Diol Ker is in many ways your archetypal National Hunt Chase type, in that he was a 150-odd rated hurdler and has seemingly taken an age to get to grips with jumping the bigger obstacles. He’s often made a catalogue of mistakes ever since falling on debut in this discipline at Galway in October 2020, and he was at it again when tipping Sean Flanagan up first time out at Cork this season too.
The tempo of a big-field handicap seemed to really suit him at Gowran last month, though and, not unsupported (15/2), he produced an improved effort to finish fourth having jumped a bit better and stayed on at the death.
The problem I have with recommending him, however, especially given the Gigginstown House hand in the mix already (Fury Road, Run Wild Fred, Farouke D'alene etc), is that he might just be one Noel Meade looks to aim at the Irish Grand National on April 18, in which case I seriously doubt he would travel beforehand.
As for Ontheropes – yet another in here for Willie Mullins – he’s quite a rare beast in that he is actually a third-season chaser having missed the target four times in 2019/20 before bumping into Monkfish on his sole start last season.
This year started in the best possible fashion as he won the Munster National, taking advantage of what Mullins felt was a useful handicap mark (141, Ire). He was then only 8/1 to pull off the ‘Total Recall double’ in the Ladbrokes Trophy but was a well-held fourth at Newbury, and his jumping clearly let him down behind Fury Road over Christmas.
That element of his game was far from perfect again in the Thyestes and he looked like tailing off at one point (replay below), but the horse's inherent class saw him pick off tired rivals to ultimately finish fifth, and it very much looked the kind of run he could now build on going a step slower over half a mile further at Cheltenham in March.
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Looking at his overall record you’d imagine he might ideally want at least a few sizeable showers Festival week to help bring his strongest asset into play, but I’m never all that convinced any son of Presenting needs really bad ground to shine, and with an official rating of 151 I’m sure he’s being underestimated at the moment.
You can’t say that very often about a horse from his yard and the general 14/1 makes plenty of appeal before this race cuts up any further, with the likes of Pats Fancy - who is a similar price - still needing to come through a potential clash with Bravemansgame this weekend.
Published at 1500 GMT on 09/02/22
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