Our man identifies a horse he's keen to back now for the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Saint Sam in Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at 14/1 (Unibet, Betfred)
A bit like the Dublin Racing Festival, Trials Day at Cheltenham last weekend raised a lot of questions, rather than produce too many hard-and-fast conclusions, though if Gold Tweet is supplemented – as one would expect – for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, then he's going to be a very interesting contender for one of the Thursday features.
Admittedly, runner-up Dashel Drasher didn’t quite see out the three-mile trip well enough in last weekend’s Cleeve Hurdle, while some firms were probably a bit hasty in pushing old stager Paisley Park right out to 20/1 (from 8s and 9s) on the back of finishing third, when the early tempo seemed far from strong, but the winner was different class.
In fact, he was almost completely different class to the horse he himself had looked over shorter distances in France, where he is trained by Gabriel Leenders, and one would imagine they’ll be doing everything they can to get him into the line-up back at Prestbury Park on March 16.
One thing that is consistent throughout all of his form, though, is very testing ground and while that’s certainly not out of the reckoning when it comes to the Stayers’ Hurdle on day three of the Festival, he’d have another question to answer if something close to good to soft going were to materialise.
In addition, he’ll have a stronger field to see off and it’s worth noting not one Irish-trained horse went over for the Cleeve which makes sense in a way but doesn’t help us truly pin down the worth of the form with the big one in mind.
Irish-trained horses have won half of the past 10 Stayers’ Hurdles and although the chances of dual winner Flooring Porter and the undeniably top-class Klassical Dream even making the race hang in the balance, Gordon Elliott’s Teahupoo – previously trained in France by Leenders in an interesting quirk - is now the general 5/2 favourite in light of his Galmoy Hurdle win in the middle of last week.
Having beaten Klassical Dream and Honeysuckle in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse on his seasonal debut prior to that, there would clearly have been some long faces in the Elliott camp had he been beaten as the 4/11 favourite, but it was a visually impressive performance nonetheless.
Having said that, he’s another who loves the mud and he does look ludicrously short as things stand, especially as the horse he beat 15 lengths in the Galmoy – former Sky Bet Supreme winner Summerville Boy – had been slammed 19 lengths by SAINT SAM on his previous outing over two and a half miles.
Summerville Boy is hardly a solid yardstick these days and he was getting 9lb from Teahupoo in the Galmoy and running off level weights with Saint Sam at Punchestown but, even so, the Mullins-trained six-year-old really hammered his nine rivals from the front that day (replay below).
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He’s completely unproven over three miles and can race a bit too keenly at times, but Mullins reckons he’ll improve again for the trip (he's by Saint Des Saints who also sired Djakadam, Burrows Saint and Gaillard Du Mesnil among other stout stayers) and, in a shock twist, has only entered him in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, a meeting at which this horse has a bit of previous as well.
After finishing second in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival in 2021, Saint Sam was the classiest horse in the Fred Winter by some way the following month, giving winner Jeff Kidder and third Elham Valley a stone in weight and only being beaten a couple of lengths.
He was staying on strongly that day to finish second so it was surprising they didn’t try him over further in an ultimately underwhelming novice chase campaign last term, when unseating Sean O’Keeffe in the Sporting Life Arkle before bombing out completely at Punchestown the following month.
Earlier last season, he had made a belated - but winning - start over fences last January so there’s evidence he goes well fresh which is never a bad thing with one from his yard heading into Cheltenham.
The switch back to hurdles has clearly done him the world of good this time around and, like Gold Tweet and Teahupoo, he’s another six-year-old with a whole load of potential improvement still in the tank.
At 12/1 generally and 14s with a couple of firms, he looks well worth backing as if Klassical Dream remains on the sidelines then Paul Townend will keep the ride and he’ll be half those odds and shorter no doubt should he get there on the day.
Published at 1620 GMT on 05/02/23
Antepost Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival 2023
1pt win Saint Sam in Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at 14/1
1pt e.w. Chasing Fire in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Banbridge in Sporting Life Arkle at 25/1
1pt win Sandor Clegane in Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at 12/1
1pt win Ballygriffincottage in Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at 16/1
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