2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Impervious in Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
With the entries not closing until the middle of next month there’s a complex look to the market for the Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices Hurdle at present and you sense there’s still plenty of water to pass under the bridge before we reach anything resembling the betting at Cheltenham come the day.
The blindingly obvious starting point, given he’s won five of the six editions of the race so far, is trainer Willie Mullins. He’s responsible for six of the top seven in the betting at the time of writing, the majority of which are more than likely going to be seen in action again prior to plans being finalised.
The big one right now – emphasis on the adjective there given her sheer size and scope – is Allegorie De Vassy, representing Susannah and Rich Ricci, who have tasted success in this before through Limini and Let’s Dance.
The latest Ricci French import could be right up there with that duo based on her facile Fairyhouse win on New Year’s Day. Clearly fancied to put her experience for previous trainer Marcel Rolland to good use under jockey Sean O’Keeffe, she sauntered home in the first-time tongue-tie to win by 11 lengths without her rider needing to do a great deal in the way of encouragement.
That win prompted the layers to immediately run for cover and she was made favourite for the Festival but, for all the style, there isn’t a great deal of substance to work with on form, given she was in receipt of 6lb from the second and third, who were rated just 109 and 113 respectively on the back of their own maiden victories.
Allegorie De Vassy may look to follow a familiar route to the Festival by running in this Saturday’s BetVictor Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse (won by Limini, Laurina and Honeysuckle in recent years) where she could in theory clash with stablemates Brandy Love and Grangee, along with the Gordon Elliott-trained Party Line.
Brandy Love strictly has ground to make up with Party Line and Grangee on bumper form from last year’s Dublin Racing Festival, though it was very hard not to be impressed by her hurdling debut win at Naas in mid-December and she's clearly very smart with no shortage of stamina.
Brandy Love and another stablemate, the JP McManus-owned Dinoblue – a wide-margin winner of a Clonmel maiden this month – are both priced up pretty defensively and the one from Closutton who looks over-priced currently is Grade One Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner Statuaire.
I’ve already shown my hand in terms of considering that decent form, recommending the third home and subsequent Grade One Leopardstown winner Mighty Potter for the Sky Bet Supreme just last week, so it almost goes without saying I’ve got massive respect for Statuaire, who seemed to catch connections by surprise (12/1) a little bit at Fairyhouse.
It wasn’t the case last season, but loads of top-class horses have tasted defeat in the Royal Bond en route to greater things, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as it’s always one of the most competitive novice hurdle races prior to the spring, so with that in mind I’m going to look past all the Mullins horses and give another chance to the Colm Murphy-trained IMPERVIOUS.
Sent off a 3/1 shot for the Royal Bond following wins at Cork, Listowel and Down Royal, I’m far from convinced we saw the best of her in November given how the race turned into a mad scramble from the turn in, and Brian Hayes sensibly dropped his hands to save her for another day after his mount kicked over the last flight and consequently ruined all chance of even hitting the frame.
She was only beaten six lengths (replay in full below) which was a really decent effort against the geldings in the circumstances, and I do feel she’s capable of much better given a truly-run race at Cheltenham.
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This race is run on the Thursday of Festival week and the two miles, one furlong of the New Course should really play to her strengths and we know she’ll be perfectly happy on spring ground too, which can’t necessarily be said for some of the others shorter than her in the betting.
The big question now is whether she’s done enough to go straight there or needs a prep run to put her straight, and Murphy entering her in the mares’ handicap over two miles, two furlongs on the Sunday of the DRF (as well as the two-mile Grade One) suggests we’ll see her again.
There’s always a small chance, should things not pan out at Leopardstown, or the BHA assessors seriously underestimate her, connections get lured into having a pop at the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe, but having campaigned her at Graded level already this season she’s surely more likely to stick to the novice route where she looks to have a huge amount to recommend her based on what we’ve seen so far.
She’s almost twice the price of Statuaire which doesn’t sit right with me after the last run and the 16/1 with Sky Bet should be backed accordingly.
There isn’t much strength in depth to the British team in this division, although Dan Skelton could clearly have something to say about that.
West Balboa may come into contention having chased home Stage Star in the Challow Hurdle on just her second start over obstacles and Nurse Susan remains a nice prospect despite getting a bit stuck in the mud behind Love Envoi at Lingfield over the weekend.
But if Skelton has a diamond in here then it’s most likely Elle Est Belle, who gets her chance to shine in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 12.
By the same sire at last year’s Betfair winner Soaring Glory and given an eerily similar preparation through November and December, Newbury does look to have been the big plan for Elle Est Belle for a while and there’s no doubt she’s got the potential to make her mark of 133 look lenient.
She wasn’t far off the best bumper horses around last year, winning twice before finishing third to Sir Gerhard at Cheltenham and third to Me Too Please at Aintree in April.
Win, lose or draw on her next start she’s probably going to have to remain on the Cheltenham radar but which race she’ll end up running in is a bit of a guess-up at the moment, with Mares’ Hurdle and Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle options likely to be backed up by entries in the handicaps as well.
She’s 13/2 with Sky Bet (6/1 with Hills) to win ‘any race’ at the Festival which may float the boat of a few punters out there but if you’re that way inclined then I’d just recommend backing her at double those odds for the Betfair Hurdle instead.
Published at 1500 GMT on 26/01/22
Recommended Antepost Value Bet archive
1pt win Mighty Potter in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Funambule Sivola in Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
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