Tony McFadden outlines the Timeform view on day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
Three points of interest
Kopek des Bordes has strong claims on ratings in Supreme
You have to go back to 2016, for the edition won by top-rated Altior, to find the last time a horse went into the Supreme Novices' Hurdle (13:20) with a higher Timeform rating than the 154P Kopek des Bordes has earned.
Kopek des Bordes achieved that lofty figure when winning the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown by 13 lengths, jumping much better than he had when successful on his hurdling debut at the same venue.
Kopek des Bordes' win in that Grade 1 was rated as the joint-best performance in the race since the distance was reduced for the first Dublin Racing Festival in 2018, with only Ballyburn producing an effort of equal merit in that time. That takes on extra significance when you consider the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle has a rich roll of honour and was won by subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners Samcro, Klassical Dream, Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard and Ballyburn.
Such an emphatic success unsurprisingly propelled Kopek des Bordes to the head of the novice hurdle pecking order and he is rated 5 lb clear of the next highest in the division, Romeo Coolio (149p). It's also worth noting that Kopek des Bordes, who produced the joint-best performance by a bumper debutant last season when winning his only start in that sphere, has the Timeform Large P to highlight that he may be capable of significantly better form.
On two of his three starts Kopek des Bordes has been given the 'K' in-running symbol by Timeform's reporter to signify that he travelled notably strongly. That cruising speed is a feature of what sets him apart from his opponents and marks him out as such an outstanding prospect, though there's also the slight concern he might prove too lit up and expend too much energy, so connections have chosen to apply a hood for the first time.
Fascinating clash in Champion Hurdle
Last year's Champion Hurdle (16:00) winner State Man is back to defend his crown but is only third in the market - and third on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings - in a much stronger-looking edition this time around.
State Man's task was made much easier last year by the defection of the previous Champion Hurdle winner Constitution Hill who returned an unsatisfactory blood test after performing alarmingly poorly in a racecourse gallop at Kempton. Constitution Hill has returned to action this season with two comfortable victories which have extended his unbeaten record under Rules to ten. He hasn't had to be anywhere near his best, but his peak form marks him out as one of the best hurdlers of all time.
Constitution Hill's stunning success in the 2022 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, in which he beat this year's Champion Chase favourite Jonbon by 22 lengths, earned him a Timeform rating of 177p which is the highest the organisation has ever awarded to a novice hurdler, eclipsing the benchmark of 176 set by Golden Cygnet in 1977/78.
The only hurdlers, of any experience, to have earned a higher Timeform rating are Night Nurse (182), Istabraq (180), Monksfield (180), Persian War (179) and Comedy of Errors (178).
But this year Constitution Hill faces a rival who has taken high rank on a ratings list herself. Brighterdaysahead got the better of State Man by three quarters of a length in the Morgiana Hurdle in November, when she had the benefit of race fitness on her side, but she posted a much more dominant win in the Neville Hotels Hurdle at Leopardstown which she won by a remarkable 30 lengths.
State Man clearly wasn't himself at Leopardstown, but the time reflects well on Brighterdaysahead who was awarded a Timeform rating of 167 which marks her out as the second highest-rated mare this century, behind only Annie Power (170+). The only other jumps mares rated higher since the first edition of Chasers & Hurdlers was published in 1975/76 are Dawn Run (173) and Anaglogs Daughter (171).
That means Brighterdaysahead is rated only 3 lb inferior to Constitution Hill once her 7 lb sex allowance is taken into account, so this is arguably the 2023 champion's stiffest test of his career. But Constitution Hill still gets the nod in Timeform's Analyst Verdict available on Sporting Life racecards.
Reopposing rivals head ratings for National Hunt Chase
One of the changes implemented ahead of this year's Cheltenham Festival was a tweak to the conditions of the National Hunt Chase (17:20), which will now be run as a handicap and not exclusively for amateur jockeys.
Some amateurs have picked up a ride, though, including Patrick Mullins, a four-time winner of the race. Those victories were all achieved on horses trained by his father, Willie, but this year he has an interesting ride for Neil Mulholland on the progressive chaser Transmission.
All three of Transmission's starts over fences this season have been at Cheltenham (he has Timeform's Horses For Courses Flag) and he was successful on the second of those appearances when ridden by Mullins. He then ran at least as well in defeat under James Bowen when chasing home Haiti Couleurs - and that could prove a key piece of form.
Haiti Couleurs, a winner on his previous outing at Aintree, produced a really likeable display, impressing with how well he jumped and travelled, to win by two and three-quarter lengths from Transmission who kept on in the style of one who will stay long distances.
Timeform's handicapper has taken a more positive view of that form than the BHA assessor and Transmission and Haiti Couleurs are the two at the head of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings. Both horses have since had a spin over hurdles to prepare them for this test and, while Transmission comes out slightly better at the weights, it is Haiti Couleurs who has got the nod in Timeform's racecard verdict to uphold the form.
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