John Ingles provides a key stat to keep in mind for the Cheltenham Festival.
Cheltenham Stat: Nine of the last ten County Hurdles have been won by either Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton
The County Hurdle is as competitive a handicap as any at the Festival – with the exception of last year’s smaller field of ‘just’ 17, all the other renewals in the last ten years have attracted at least 23 runners. It’s remarkable, therefore, that two stables have dominated the race in the last decade, with the recent Mullins/Skelton monopoly broken only in 2021 by 33/1 winner Belfast Banter, trained by Peter Fahey. Mullins has won the County Hurdle seven times all told since 2010.
But if the identity of the winning trainer hasn’t been any surprise for most of the last ten years, the same can’t be said for the winning horse. Mullins has been responsible for the only two winning favourites in that period, Saint Roi at 11/2 in 2020 and State Man at 11/4 two years later. Both were five-year-olds who had run once in France before having just two runs for Mullins prior to the Festival, but a change in the rules means that a horse has to have run at least five times to get a run in a non-novice handicap hurdle at the Festival this year. The only other County Hurdle winner at single-figure odds in the last ten years was Superb Story who provided Skelton with his first Festival winner when successful at 8/1 in 2016.
But otherwise, both Mullins and Skelton have caused upsets with outsiders on more than one occasion thanks to runners who weren’t considered the yard’s first string.
For Mullins, that was the case with Wicklow Brave, the 25/1 winner in 2015, and Arctic Fire, the 20/1 winner two years later. Both were successful under Paul Townend at a time when Ruby Walsh was still Mullins’ first jockey. Mullins had four of the first six home in Wicklow Brave’s year when Walsh was on the stable’s main hope, Max Dynamite (14/1) in fourth.
Mullins had just the two runners in 2017 when Walsh partnered 11/1-shot Renneti but he could finish only eighth to former Champion Hurdle runner-up Arctic Fire who won under top weight after a 14-month absence. Townend, also successful on State Man, won his fourth County Hurdle last year on Absurde who denied the Skelton-trained favourite L’Eau du Sud by a length. Absurde was sent off at 12/1 but the shortest priced of his stable’s five runners was Zenta, seventh at 10/1 under Mark Walsh.
Like Superb Story, Ch’tibello was ridden by Harry Skelton when successful at 12/1 in 2019 with the Mullins-trained favourite Whiskey Sour back in fourth. But Dan Skelton’s other two winners, Mohaayed in 2018 and Faivoir in 2023, were both successful at 33/1 under Harry Skelton’s wife Bridget Andrews. Mohaayed ran in four County Hurdles all told and had shorter-priced stablemate Spiritofthegames back in fifth when successful at the second attempt. Two years ago, Harry Skelton finished well down the field on 9/2 favourite Pembroke behind stablemate Faivoir, he too beaten in the race the previous year.
This year's contenders
Absurde figures among Mullins’ 16 County Hurdle entries this year when he would be bidding to become the first horse in the race’s history to win it twice.
He’s currently vying for favouritism with the J. P. McManus-owned (and therefore likely Mark Walsh-ridden) Kopeck de Mee who is very much in the Saint Roi and State Man mould, albeit meeting the bare minimum under the new rules of having run five times over hurdles, all of them in France.
Among the remainder of the Closutton County Hurdle entries, the Kenny Alexander-owned mares Kargese and Gala Marceau, both former Triumph Hurdle runners-up, appeal as being well-treated for what would be their first handicap.
Skelton has just the three entries, with Valgrand, winner of a Grade 2 novice at Cheltenham in October, the pick of the trio.
But the front-running Knickerbockerglory has looked at least as good as ever this season at the age of nine (one County Hurdle winner that age this century) and Williethebuilder is arguably in better heart than his last couple of runs would suggest.
More Cheltenham Festival stats
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