Graeme North previews day one of the Cheltenham Festival from a timing perspective and highlights his best bet.
There might have been some murky drizzly weather around the Cheltenham area on Monday morning – windy.com is an excellent free weather radar resource with multi webcam coverage for anyone unaware – but with no significant rain since February 27th according to their own submissions, selective watering that began on March 6th and multiple daily temperature highs since in the mid-teens, the 2025 Festival looks set to start on ground that while still good to soft officially will almost certainly lean towards good, as seven of the 14 Festivals since 2010 have done according to Timeform.
For those readers wanting a quick early steer to the state of the surface, the average time since then for a Timeform ‘good ground’ Supreme, traditionally the opening race of the Festival, has come in at just under 3mins 50 secs; Constitution Hill posted 3 mins 45.2 secs back in 2022.
The Supreme looks set to be run at its usual good clip with 12 runners declared, six of whom are trained by Willie Mullins including the hot favourite Kopek Des Bordes who is undefeated in three races and has won both starts over hurdles, including the Grade 1 Brave Inca at the Dublin Racing Festival which has been won by subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners four times in the last six years.
Kopek Des Bordes was imperious at Leopardstown, winning by 13 lengths from his re-opposing stablemate Karniquet in a race-leading 154 timefigure, 7lb clear of next best Romeo Coolio. There is no doubt about his ability to handle the likely quickish ground, a remark which applies to any other horse that ran well at this year’s Dublin Racing Festival given how fast the surface was riding over that weekend, the fact he sports a first-time hood presumably to calm him down might be seen as a negative.
Last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up Romeo Coolio won’t be fazed by the likely conditions either given the ground at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting was, if anything, riding faster than at the DRF, but that Paddy Power Future Champions form hasn’t exactly been franked.
Tripoli Flyer, one of two British raiders, is third best on the clock on 143 after his Dovecote win at Kempton last time followed by wide-margin last-time-out winner William Munny (141) and Karniquet (139). Workahead, who trounced William Munny at Christmas when running a very similar time to Kopek Des Bordes, posted a 135 that day and might well have scored a fair bit higher since, as that collateral form-line suggests, had he not been kept fresh for this.
What looked potentially the strongest Arkle for many seasons several months ago has instead dissipated into a five-runner field for the third time since 2018. Those renewals were both won by odds-on shots Footpad and Shishkin and the 2024 Triumph winner Majborough looks set to follow in their footsteps. His jumping hasn’t impressed everyone, but he never looked like coming down at Leopardstown in February when he posted a race-leading 159 timefigure in the Irish Arkle, a level that historically almost guarantees success if repeated at Cheltenham.
L’Eau Du Sud is unbeaten over fences and posted a 153 in the Kingmaker at Warwick having earlier beaten the re-opposing Touch Me Not (144) in a 149 timefigure on similarly soft ground in the Henry VIII at Sandown. Jango Baie also posted a 144 on the first of his two runs over fences but drops back in trip after three consecutive runs over two and a half miles.
Lossiemouth heads the time ratings in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle and by some way too, 8lb and 13lb clear respectively of her closest two challengers Gala Marceau and Kala Conti having posted a 154 in the Annie Power at Punchestown last May and a 150 behind Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. She’s defending an unbeaten record at the Cheltenham Festival having won the Triumph in 2023 and the Dawn Run in 2024 but she comes here not on the back of a win but a fall at Leopardstown when trying to put it up to State Man some way out under Danny Mullins.
How that fall – her first - will affect her remains to be seen but she might not need to be at her best to see off her stable-companion Gala Marceau or Kala Conti, whose victory in a handicap off an Irish mark of 130 three starts back suggests both she as well as her recent Leopardstown conqueror July Flower (who was receiving 5lb that day and who has has run poorly both starts in Britain) probably have more to do here than their current odds suggest.
Jade de Grugy (140, all form on ground slower than she’s likely to meet here), Jetara and Take No Chances (both 139) all have each-way claims, while standout 2023 bumper mare Dysart Enos (133) and the supplemented Joyeuse (received 18lb off Take No Chances in a handicap two starts back) also look interesting entries upped in trip.
The Champion Hurdle is all the poorer for Lossiemouth’s absence but the presence of Brighterdaysahead should, if the clock is anything to go by, give former champion Constitution Hill more to think about than an opponent has in any of his infrequent races over the last couple of years.
Just six runners took him on in 2023 when he scored at odds of 4-11 and just half a dozen face him again despite signs this year that he might not be the force he was back in 2022 when he posted a 178 timefigure in the Supreme. He’s not run to higher than 162 since, not obviously because all the old ability isn’t there but because he hasn’t been required to faced with inferior opposition, but if Brighterdaysahead turns up in the same form as when recording a 166 timefigure in the December Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas then he’ll have to be nearly if not as good as ever.
Interestingly, the ground at Leopardstown that day was significantly quicker the preceding three days according to the going allowance Timeform used to return timefigures, and much quicker than for any other race she has contested over hurdles, which may or may not be significant, and she once again has King Of Kingsfield in there to make the running for her.
Current champion State Man is third best on the clock with a 165 to his name but he finished well behind Brighterdaysahead last time before winning unimpressively at the DRF and is now tried in cheekpieces. Golden Ace, of course, beat Brighterdaysahead in the Dawn Run and also beat Burdett Road after a patient ride in the Kingwell Hurdle last time in a 140 timefigure; the quicker the ground the better for her.
Katate Dori is 3lb clear on Timeform performance ratings for the opening handicap, the Ultima, but a 12lb rise in the weights for an untypical Kempton win (finishers well strung out) under conditions vastly slower than he will encounter here (or has encountered in his previous wins) suggests to me he’s up against it and the clock agrees.
Original it might not be given he is favourite at the time of writing, but top on time is the improving The Changing Man whose front-running romp at Ascot last time still arguably hasn’t received the credit it deserved, probably because the odds-on favourite that day, Jingko Blue, left the race at the third.
That effectively left The Changing Man facing a time trial, and though his bare 108 timefigure isn’t anything special (he’d posted a race-leading 142 over the course and distance in December when second to the re-opposing Victtorino) he ran a faster final circuit than either Pic d’Orhy did in the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase or Victtorino (who was winning off a 3lb higher mark than when beating The Changing Man) managed. That was despite winning unchallenged with his rider pretty much sat motionless.
Whistle Stop Tour, last seen in the usually significant Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase over an inadequate trip, Frero Banbou (who beat The Changing Man by just over a length in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle when the pair were 16 lengths clear) and the moody Trelawne, the selection of this column last year when falling at the second, are next best in what looks a warmer Ultima than usual. But I’m hopeful that The Changing Man is still on the right side of the handicapper having come here instead of the Brown Advisory.
It must be said that nothing in the top three on time in the Fred Winter (Static, now running for new trainer Donald McCain, Stencil or Liam Swagger) appeal much to me. Outside that trio, Murcia, with Rachael Blackmore up for the first time in the familiar Honeysuckle colours, looks an interesting runner given she looked a different animal in France when finally encountering decent ground, putting 12 lengths between herself and the runner-up from the last in a listed contest when sprinting clear.
Despite the rider's inexperience I’d also give a shout to Slurricane who connections look to have learned needs delivering late and for which this cavalry charge looks ideal.
Gerricault Roque (160), Transmission (159) and Haiti Couleurs (157) top the time ratings in the concluding National Hunt Challenge Cup if you concentrate on figures achieved at around three miles but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the longer trip and slower tempo play into the hands of Resplendent Grey who ran Handstands close at Sandown and was another to find the trip too short in the Timeform Novices’ last time.
Selection
Back The Changing Man (2.40 Cheltenham) at no shorter than 7/1
Preview posted at 1620 GMT on 10/03/25
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